It has been a few years since California tried to advance single payer through a legislature controlled entirely by Democrats. The last time they tried it, back in 2017, things didn’t go too well. Back then, the plan to pass single payer was torpedoed by a cost estimate which concluded it would cost the state $400 billion per year, about half of which would have to be paid through new taxes.

When that estimate effectively killed the bill the California Nurses Association, the union that had been pushing it, became very angry. Things got so heated that the Democratic caucus in the California Assembly wrote a letter telling the union to knock off the “bullying tactics, threats of violence, and death threats.”

But the dream of single payer never dies and recently state Democrats have been trying again. However, yesterday their latest plan failed to even reach a vote.

The single-payer measure, Assembly Bill 1400, was the latest attempt to deliver on a longtime priority of Democratic Party faithful to get private insurers and profit margins out of health care. Because it was introduced last year, when it stalled without receiving a single hearing, it needed to pass the Assembly by Monday to continue through the legislative process…

After several tense hours Monday afternoon, during which a scramble of meetings took place just off the Assembly floor, Assemblymember Ash Kalra, the San Jose Democrat carrying AB 1400, announced that he would not bring up the measure for a vote…

“I don’t believe it would have served the cause of getting single payer done by having the vote and having it go down in flames and further alienating members,” Kalra said on a Zoom call with disappointed supporters later in the evening, in which he shared that he believed the bill, which needed 41 votes to pass, was short by “double digits.”…

Democrats also faced a squeeze from the left flank of their party. Activists with the California Democratic Party’s progressive caucus said last week they would push to withhold endorsements from members who did not vote for the bill. That ultimatum generated fierce anger in the Assembly caucus from members who felt cornered, though many refused to speak publicly about their frustration.

So progressives were threatening to withhold endorsements but ultimately the plan didn’t come up for a vote because it was clear it had no chance of passing. All it would do is stick moderates with a vote they would have to defend back home. As for why that vote would be so hard to defend, that’s because the anticipated cost of the plan hasn’t changed much since 2017:

Fiscal analyses estimate the bill could cost between $314 billion and $391 billion per year if it were implemented. That would dramatically increase total state spending; California’s current budget is $262 billion.

To pay for it, Kalra proposed taxing businesses 2.3% of their income after the first $2 million through a proposed amendment to the California Constitution. His proposal would also have imposed a 1.25% payroll tax on employers of 50 or more people and an additional payroll tax on wages for California residents over $49,900 per employee.

The measure would have added progressive income taxes starting at .5% for people making more than $149,500, up to 2.5% for people making more than about $2.5 million per year.

Maybe someone in the Democratic party has noticed that leading businesses have been leaving the state? When Elon Musk announced he was moving to Texas he said that California seemed to be taking success for granted. A week later, Oracle also announced a move to Austin. And it’s not just big companies leaving the state. In 2020, California’s population declined for the first time ever. Simply put, more people are leaving the state and fewer people are moving in to replace them.

So what happens when California announces new taxes on businesses and individuals. Granted, single payer might be attractive to some people, especially those at the bottom who won’t be asked to pay for it, but will people doing well want to pay higher taxes than any other state to support it? Or will they simply move to Texas or Florida where the drop in taxes will more than cover the cost of their insurance?

California’s bet on a stable population of successful people seems like something based in the last century when tech workers needed to be where the tech companies were in Silicon Valley. But in an era where tech has spread to various places around the country and where, post-pandemic, many workers are working remotely anyway, that no longer seems like a safe bet. It’s increasingly easy for people to vote with their feet. California Democrats might want to consider that before raising taxes by hundreds of billions per year.