We have long since run out of novel ways to say that Joe Biden's poll numbers have been an ongoing dumpster fire. I don't think we've seen a single poll since last autumn that Biden's people wanted to point to with pride. But the latest polling from Gallup this weekend comes with a bit of a novel twist. Not only have the efforts of Biden's staff and the legacy media to resurrect his standing with the public failed, but they have arguably made things worse. Biden registered an all-time low of 38.7%, which is bad enough at first glance. But this also places his approval at this point in his presidency lower than any other president in the modern era, including both Jimmy Carter and Richard Nixon. He's even three points lower than George H.W. Bush was at the same point and Bush went on to lose his reelection bid. Biden's ship isn't just taking on water at this point. The rats are jumping over the side. (NY Post)

Joe Biden is the least popular commander in chief at this point of his presidency in the last 70 years, below even Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter, according to a blistering new poll — imperiling his chances of re-election.

Biden, 81, notched a dismal 38.7% job approval rating for the first quarter of 2024, the venerable Gallup Poll found in a survey released Friday, three points lower than that of the one-term George H.W. Bush at the same point in his presidency.

“With about six months remaining before Election Day, Biden stands in a weaker position than any prior incumbent,” the pollsters concluded.

As always, we should remind readers that there are still 190 days until the election so nothing is written in stone. At the same time, it's worth remembering that Donald Trump's approval rating stood at 46.8% at the same point in his presidency and he still managed to narrowly lose. A rating in the 30s is a significant obstacle to overcome. Traditionally, presidents in the modern era with approval numbers above fifty have gone on to win a second term. The lone exception was Barack Obama who had a lukewarm rating of 46% at this point but he still went on to defeat Mitt Romney.

We should still keep in mind that we're not living in "normal" times, particularly when it comes to politics. Polls aren't as predictive as they used to be, something that was clearly demonstrated during the 2022 midterms. There are clearly a lot of people out there (nearly two-thirds at this point) who are telling pollsters that they "do not approve" of the job Joe Biden is doing as president. But not all of those people are going to show up and vote for Donald Trump. Many of them simply won't be able to pull a lever for the Bad Orange Man no matter how poorly the country and the world appear to be faring. 

Some will hold their nose and vote for Joe Biden again. Others may simply choose to stay home or opt for a third-party candidate. It is that latter group of potential voters that Donald Trump is resting his hopes upon. The vast majority of the leftists who are attempting to disrupt Biden's campaign events and chanting "Genocide Joe" are hard-core progressives from the far left. They are not about to suddenly see the light and run down to the DMV to change their registration to the GOP. But if they are still this upset about America's support of Israel on election day, there is at least a chance that some of them will vote for RFK or someone else.

Trump's supporters do not appear to be wavering in any significant numbers. He's also picking up some followers among union workers, even though the union leadership is still endorsing Biden. We're seeing some consistent shifts among minority voters who have traditionally shied away from the Republican Party. It's far too soon to say whether these shifts will add up to enough of a difference to put Donald Trump back in office, but I would currently give him a measurably better chance than I would have one year ago.