Is there still a functional democracy left in Turkey? It seems difficult to believe after Recep Tayyip Erdogan set himself up to be able to be President for Life back in 2010. But they have an election tomorrow and the latest polling shows Erdogan trailing his chief opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, by more than five points. Also, another of Erdogan’s rivals, Muharrem Ince, dropped out of the race yesterday. He was only polling at 2.2%, but his followers are expected to switch to Kilicdaroglu and that might be enough to put the challenger over the top. Turkish presidential elections require the winner to take more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. The real question here is whether or not Erdogan would actually step aside if he lost. (Nikkei)

Turkey goes to the polls Sunday with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trailing his chief rival while another candidate’s last-minute pullout raises the stakes in the toughest re-election battle of his career, analysts said.

The 69-year-old Erdogan, Turkey’s longest-serving leader, is looking to extend his two-decade rule with the backing of a strong conservative and religious base across the Muslim nation.

But this weekend’s presidential and parliamentary elections have become a referendum on his governing style and unorthodox economic policies. Many of Turkey’s 64 million eligible voters are struggling with a cost-of-living crisis caused by runaway inflation.

One reporter had the audacity to ask Erdogan if he would honor the results of the election. The President scoffed at the idea, calling it “ridiculous.” He said, “Just as we came with the support of the people, if the people make a different decision [this time], we will do whatever democracy requires.”

Let’s hope we can take him at his word. We also need to cross our fingers and hope that the election will be conducted and counted fairly. In a race this tight, you wouldn’t need all that much tampering to flip it in Erdogan’s direction. He has run the country pretty much as a dictator ever since taking power.

People in Turkey don’t seem to be responding negatively to Erdogan’s foreign policy maneuvers. They’re primarily upset about rampant inflation (currently running at 45%), rising prices, and a stagnating economy. (Does any of that sound familiar?) The country hasn’t recovered from the pandemic as quickly as has been seen in other nations and Erdogan may be about to pay the price for that.

Erdogan has also steered Turkey away from being a reliable ally and NATO member and set the country up to be more closely aligned with Russia and China. It’s unclear whether Kilicdaroglu would be any better in that regard. With that in mind, the Wall Street Journal asks the right question. Will Turkey’s election make it a reliable ally again?

The U.S. is also frustrated with Mr. Erdoğan, who has used Turkey’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership to shake down the West…

Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu said this week that he wants closer ties with NATO and Europe. Ünal Çeviköz, a senior adviser to the candidate, says that “a democratic deficit” in Turkey has hindered its prospects for joining the EU, “so the new government’s priority will be looking at domestic politics first” and restoring the rule of law, separation of powers and basic freedoms.

Kilicdaroglu is mostly saying the right things, suggesting that he wants closer ties with NATO and the EU. But at the same time, he insists that he will maintain his country’s current agreements with Russia. He wants to be “a mediator.” But that’s basically the line that Erdogan has taken while simultaneously purchasing Russian missile systems and acting as a reluctant broker in a Ukrainian grain embargo.

If Erdogan is actually ousted, what all of this will mean largely depends on how Joe Biden handles the situation. (God help us all.) This administration has overseen one foreign policy disaster after another, with former allies peeling away and siding with the New Axis of Evil. This could be a significant opportunity to get something right for Joe Biden or whoever is writing his note cards this week. And it will all start with a phone call to the winner.