My prediction: Naah. But that doesn't mean that Robert Kennedy's nomination for HHS Secretary has run aground -- yet. RFK has yet to start meeting with senators in advance of his confirmation process, and those meetings can tend to shore up weaknesses, both substantive and political. Just ask Pete Hegseth and Joni Ernst ... especially the latter.

That doesn't mean that Kennedy will get an easy ride to confirmation. Politico has that much correct in their report about his shaky status among Senate Republicans:

At least three closely watched senators are noncommittal about confirming the vaccine critic, who’s being considered to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Those include swing votes like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, as well as Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, a physician who will chair a committee that could host confirmation hearings for Kennedy.

The problem isn't really Collins or Murkowski. Even if all three of these Senate Republicans voted against RFK, he'd still get confirmed by a tie-breaking J.D. Vance vote. Kennedy's problem is among pro-life Republicans who are very concerned about putting someone as pro-abortion as RFK at the top of HHS. (For that matter, so will be religious-liberty activists and their allies in the upper chamber; these overlap, of course.) The department's enabling statutes are rife with "the Secretary shall determine" loopholes that put a yuuuge amount of regulatory power in that position, especially in the Affordable Care Act or ObamaCare. Current HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra has not been shy in wielding those powers to promote abortion, and neither were previous Democrats Kathleen Sebelius and Sylvia Matthews Burwell. 

Kennedy's nomination to this position came as an unpleasant surprise to pro-life activists, and they have not been silent about it. Most of them assumed Trump would replace Xavier Becerra with a pro-life figure to reverse his Joe Biden era regulatory moves. They had hoped that Trump would give RFK a lesser post, perhaps at FDA, where he could be more focused on his agenda, rather than put him at the top of HHS. At some point, pro-life Republicans in and out of the Senate are going to start asking very hard questions about the damage Kennedy could do in this position. 

Given RFK's lifelong championing of abortion, however, Politico's question is pertinent. Will Senate Democrats take half a loaf and ensure that Kennedy takes the reins from Becerra rather than give Trump an opportunity to appoint a pro-life candidate to the position? 

So far, the answer appears to be a resounding YGBFKM:

But a quick survey of Democrats didn’t turn up much in the way of positive comments. A handful gave deferential answers to the nomination process, saying they looked forward to meeting with him in committee and asking him questions. Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) said he wants Kennedy to “have his chance to make his pitch.” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) similarly said he wants to talk to Kennedy directly and has “a lot of questions for him.”

Others weren’t so timid. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee member, said he doesn’t want a “denier of science” helming the nation’s top health agency.

“I get that there are quid-pro-quos in politics, but that one’s a pretty naked one,” Murphy said. “I know politics is crass, but that’s pretty fucking crass.”

Alternate headline: Democrats Still Playing Checkers in 3-D Chess World. 

However, while that may be true for the majority of the Senate Democratic caucus, a few may see their opportunity here—and a few is all RFK needs. If Kennedy loses a half-dozen Republicans, all he'll need is four Senate Democrats to win confirmation. But given Democrats' performance this year, it seems unlikely that any of them will act independently, let alone strategically, even when it benefits them to do so. They appear to remain in Resistance mode, or are talking themselves into Resistance 2.0 - Futility Bugaloo mode for the new Trump term. Marco Rubio will probably be the only Trump nominee to get to 60 votes in confirmation, and that's only because he's a member of the Senate club. Otherwise, the ceiling will be 53 votes all the way down the line, at least on Cabinet positions. 

That means that Kennedy and Trump have their work cut out for them. And rightfully so, given the amount of support that the pro-life community has provided Trump in this election cycle. Right now, they may share Murphy's assessment of the politics involved in putting Kennedy in charge of HHS.