Looks like Hezbollah has a security leak. Apparently just minutes before the Iranian proxy terror army in Lebanon would have launched a massive retaliatory attack on Israel, the IDF destroyed thousands of its launchers and missiles in a pre-emptive strike. Hezbollah attacked anyway, but ended up doing very little damage. 

And later, Hezbollah suggested that they had finished their revenge for the strike on Fuad Shukr three weeks ago:

Israeli warplanes bombarded dozens of targets in southern Lebanon on Sunday to stop what Israel said were preparations for a major attack by Hezbollah, which later said it had fired hundreds of rockets at Israel in retribution for the killing of a senior commander. But within hours of the strikes, some of the heaviest between them in months, both sides signaled they were moving to de-escalate.

Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia, said its military operation had “finished for the day” and that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, would deliver an address later on Sunday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that while Israel had successfully intercepted the Hezbollah attack, “what happened today is not the final word,” and the Israeli military said it was still carrying out air attacks against Hezbollah targets.

For now, at least, the exchange of attacks fell short of the major escalation that many had feared after an Israeli airstrike killed Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, in the Beirut suburbs last month.

Just how "pre-emptive" this strike was is a matter of semantics. Hezbollah has been firing missiles at Israel since October 8 in an attempt to divert forces and resources from Gaza and Hamas. That alone made the strike on Fuad Shukr a legitimate act against an aggressor; the humiliation of Israel's success is what prompted this retaliation, not the idea that Shukr's death was an escalation. 

Still, Israel did a good job of essentially neutering Hezbollah in this instance, and this time all on its own, rather than as part of an alliance as during the attack from Iran. That may be one reason why Hezbollah will call it a success regardless of the lack of any significant damage from their large-scale attack plans. And perhaps also because they may realize that the Israelis have better intelligence on their operations than they realized.

Even if Hezbollah's finished, Israel may not be. Benjamin Netanyahu warned today that this attempt by Iran's proxy to escalate makes clear the need to completely reset Israel's security situation in the region, and that they will not rest until their northern districts are safe and secure again:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says in his opening remarks at the weekly cabinet meeting that Israel’s preemptive strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon this morning was not “the end of the story.” ...

“Israel is hitting Hezbollah with surprising, crushing blows. Three weeks ago we eliminated its chief of staff [Fuad Shukr],” Netanyahu says. “Today we foiled its attack plan. [Hezbollah’s Hassan] Nasrallah in Beirut and [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei in Tehran should know that this is another step on the path to changing the situation in the north and returning our residents safely to their homes.”

Hezbollah tried saving some face by releasing a propaganda video showing the assets they intended to strike, which apparently included Mossad HQ in Tel Aviv and a secret IDF base. The decision to release this is curious, given their utter failure to hit any of their targets:

🚨 Hezbollah: The initial phase of retaliation targeted Israeli military bases and barracks for the assassination of Sayyed Fouad Shukr and civilian deaths in southern Beirut. #Lebanon 🇱🇧 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XJbnl3Vqug

— Mohamad Al Shami محمد الشامي 🇾🇪🇵🇸 (@mamashami) August 25, 2024

The IDF has said that none of its bases were damaged in the attack, which was supposed to include hundreds of rockets fired at northern Israel and drones believed to have been headed for central Israel. ...

None of the Hezbollah drones impacted targets in central Israel, according to the military. Most of the projectiles struck open areas, and many were intercepted by air defense.

The lack of success has not gone unnoticed in the Arab world. The Jerusalem Post reports that social-media users in Kuwait, Jordan, and even Syria are mocking Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as "the chicken hunter," while others think Nasrallah essentially chickened out:

One Kuwaiti user named Fahed uploaded a picture of a dead chicken, adding cynically: “Allahu Akbar! Hassan Nasrallah's response! Hezbollah's response! The number of chicken injuries rose to 27 chickens, 5 of them are critically injured, with first-degree burns to the wings and beak, after the chicken pen was targeted in response to the assassination of Fouad Shukr. He says, ‘our missiles are accurate!’”

A parody account named after Syrian tyrant Bashar Al-Assad wrote, “A video showing the result of Hezbollah's response to Israel, where dozens of Israeli chickens were killed and wounded. Is it reasonable that my ally Hezbollah would respond to the assassination of the party's top military commander by killing chickens? I will now call my friend Hassan Nasrallah to explain to him that Israel is a murderer and assassinated his leaders, not a midwife who delivered them so that he could slaughter chickens on this occasion.”

A Syrian user named Khaled added: “The chicken massacre was not a coincidence, but a strategic plan! The goal? To prevent the opponents and enemies of the ‘resistance’ from gloating after every bombing and saying, ‘They didn't even hurt a chicken.’ Hezbollah finished off the chickens and chicks with premeditation and deliberation in order to deprive us of the pleasure of joking and mocking its response and missiles!” ...

One user named Omar compared the high-ranking leader assassinated by Israel and Hezbollah’s response, showing the burning chicken pen. In contrast, another anonymous user named Adel wrote, “Hezbollah excels in its precision in killing chickens.”

Yeah, well, don't count your chickens until they are hatched, too. Hezbollah represents a far greater military threat to Israel than Hamas, especially when backed up by Iran and Syria. But they are poorly led and even more poorly positioned after this humiliation. If the Israelis swoop into southern Lebanon at some point, Nasrallah and Hezbollah face a likely rebellion from other Lebanese factions that could push them out altogether -- and this exchange demonstrates that they don't have as much deterrent power to that kind of offensive operation as they may have thought. 

Addendum: Hezbollah's backing down now, according to Reuters:

Israel and the Lebanon-based group Hezbollah exchanged messages via intermediaries earlier today in order to prevent further escalation following one of the biggest exchanges of fire between the two foes in 10 months, two diplomats tell Reuters.

The main message was that both sides considered Sunday’s intense exchange of bombardment to be “done” and that neither side wants a full-scale war, one diplomat says. The diplomats speak on condition of anonymity.

Interesting. And convenient, too.