When did a Republican presidential nominee last lead national polling in July? For that matter, when was the last time Donald Trump lead in national polling at all, before this cycle?

CNN's Harry Enten explained this morning just how long it's been for both, and why Democrats may have rational reasons to hit the panic button. And Enten may not be operating from the most recent data:

You have to hand it to @ForecasterEnten - his brutal and honest assessments are very profound on CNN. He tells it like it is. pic.twitter.com/F873apWPRx

— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) July 8, 2024

First off, Enten debunks Joe Biden's claim that polls underestimated him in 2020. In fact, the polls turned out to be remarkably accurate in terms of the popular-vote results four years ago:

ENTEN: Right now Donald Trump leads in an aggregate of national polls by about three percentage points. If you go back four years ago at this point, Joe Biden was ahead by nine points. This, right now, don't look anything like what we saw four years ago at this point. I then decided to take it a step further. What was Biden's worst 2020 polling position? He was ahead by four points, which basically match what he ended up beating Donald Trump by in the national popular vote. So, this three-point advantage for Donald Trump is Donald Trump's best position versus Joe Biden, whether you include the polls this year or you include the polls last cycle. The idea that the polls underestimated Joe Biden last time around, simply put, does not hold any water, Mr. Berman.

The polls did underestimate Trump four years ago, but not enough to impact the overall result, Enten explains. But the danger for Democrats isn't that Trump might be being underestimated again, but that he's leading now. A Republican presidential nominee hasn't led polling in July in almost a quarter-century, Enten explains:

ENTEN: We talk about the presidential race. Last time around, Donald Trump actually did better in the results than his July polls by five points. You go back to 2016. You see something very similar. That is the July polls actually underestimated Donald Trump. He outperformed his July polls. So, the idea in the Trump era that the polls have underestimated Democrats, whether it be in a Joe Biden matchup, whether it be a matchup against Hillary Clinton, whether it be in the midterms, at least in the national polling that right now shows Donald Trump in the strongest position, simply put, is not true. ...

So, let's go all the way back. Who lead in early July polls? Well, right now, Donald Trump is ahead. Go back in 2020, a Democrat, Biden. In 2016, Hillary Clinton, a Democrat. 2008, 2012, a Democrat. Even in 2004, where George W. Bush ended up winning, John Kerry was actually ahead in the polls at this point. You have to go all the way back to 2000, to George W. Bush being ahead in the early July polls, you have to go all the way back to the end of the 20th century, beginning of the 21st century, to find a Republican ahead at this. Twenty-four years. At this particular point, the idea that a Democrat is ahead, there are voters in the electric who are dealing with a poll position they have never seen before. And that is a Republican leading in the national popular vote, at least according to the polls.

Needless to say, that's no es bueno for Democrats, and for the most part that describes the status quo before the debate. In the RCP aggregate, we have had one wave of post-debate polling, taken in its immediate aftermath. Eleven pollsters have new results for surveys taken from 6/28 (the day after the election) to 7/2 at the latest. And those do look disastrous for Biden, moving the race from 46.1/45.2 Trump to 47.5/44.2 Trump, a gain in the gap of about two and a half points. 

However, these polls do not cover the period in which Biden struggled to recover. The George Stephanopoulos interview didn't take place until July 5th, for instance, and Biden's detachment until the last couple of days have yet to be measured in political support. During the six days left unsurveyed (so far), a number of Democrat officeholders and public figures called for Biden to withdraw. 

Of course, to be fair, it's possible that voters might have rethought their abandonment of Biden during that period, although there wouldn't be any particular catalyst for that kind of movement. The firm declaration this morning by, er, someone that Biden would not withdraw may have voters who pulled back rethinking yet again. But one can read some momentum in the polls that did take place, momentum which matched the cascading calls for Biden to retire, and assume that the next wave of polling won't look better -- and could look significantly worse.

Finally, Enten told CNN last night that Kamala Harris could end up polling better than her boss in a 2024 head-to-head. That's only because (a) there hasn't actually been that much polling on a Trump/Harris general election, and (b) Harris hasn't actually done much campaigning this year:

ENTEN: She couldn't do any worse, I'll tell you that much. If you take a look at the average of polls, in fact, she does slightly better than Joe Biden against Donald Trump. While Joe Biden is trailing Trump by three points nationally, in an average of polls, Kamala Harris is only trailing Donald Trump by a single point.

And the reason for that is, remember we have the left part of this country Democratic, we have the right part of this country, Republican, but elections tend to be won in the middle among Independents and look at this difference among Independents when you match up Joe Biden against Donald Trump and Kamala Harris against Donald Trump. Donald trump leads among Independents when he is against Biden by four points.

Stay tuned. When pollsters really flood the zone, we'll get a better picture of the Democrats' only realistic Plan B.