Could Benjamin Netanyahu manage to resurrect his political career after October 7? Conventional wisdom considered Netanyahu a likely target for the ire of Israeli voters when the war concluded and the demand for accountability over the failures to stop the massacre crescendoed. That was not just an assumption among Democrats here in the US but practically their mission, with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi demanding his ouster and Joe Biden semi-grunting in approval.

Now, however, the Times of Israel reports that Netanyahu will run again for office in the next elections, whenever those are held. And he thinks he can win, thanks in part to his needle-threading in hostage negotiations:

Although he hadn’t been definitive on this issue since the war in Gaza broke out, we’re now beginning to hear clear statements from him about the dramatic need for him to continue leading the country even after the next general elections, despite — and perhaps because of — the terrible national tragedy and disgraceful failures of October 7.

Netanyahu believes that Israel is in the midst of a war that will last for many years to come and that only he is fit to face this challenge. More than that though, he is convinced that he will win an election — perhaps in the coming months — if a proposal for a hostage deal comes to a vote and wins the expected majority it needs to pass.

Netanyahu’s working assumption is that the vote will lead to ultranationalist National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and his Otzma Yehudit party resigning from government, followed soon after by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the Religious Zionism party. Once that happens, elections will be inevitable, and he is confident he can beat any other candidate in the country (after he wins a Likud leadership primary, should anyone in his party seek to challenge him).

“None of the other potential prime ministerial candidates can even hold a candle to him,” according to a source in the Prime Minister’s Office.

I'd be just a wee bit skeptical of Netanyahu's chances in a national election. Right now, he benefits from leading a unity government that is pursuing two very popular but ultimately exclusive policies: fighting the war against Hamas to a crushing victory that will reset all calculations in the region, and getting hostages back from the terrorists. As long as Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, and opposition leader Benny Gantz can credibly do both at the same time, the Israeli public will be behind them.

But how much longer can that go on? It's becoming clear that Hamas will eventually force the triumvirate at the top of the unity government to choose one or the other; that may happen soon indeed, perhaps even this weekend. Once the Rafah operation launches, the hostage families and their supporters will blame the government for consigning them to death -- and Netanyahu is the face of that government.

Alternately, Netanyahu can choose the hostages and an end to the war in Gaza, but that has its risks too. Already, voices in Israel wonder whether the months-long delay on the Rafah operation indicates that Israel has essentially lost the war. Allowing Hamas to survive will play as a humiliation, not just in Gaza but also in Israel. And let's not forget that Israel's self-sustaining agricultural sector relies on foreign workers, and that requires a secure southern Israel. If Hamas reconstitutes after surviving the biggest war against them yet, the Israeli ag sector may never recover. Good luck getting the Israelis to return, let alone the foreign workers they need to operate. 

Perhaps Netanyahu sees the possibility of threading the needle further by getting a few more of the hostages out with a time-limited temporary pause, and then choosing to fight the war to the end of Hamas. That's essentially the deal Israel has been pushing all along, and Netanyahu et al has sweetened it as far as they can now without the unity government coming apart. Hamas keeps rejecting it, and there seems to be no movement in their demands. That will force the either/or choice at some point. But even if Netanyahu's offer gets a few more hostages out now, the rest of the hostage families will not just shrug and say Good job, and who could blame them?

One could argue that any damage from either choice would be shared between all of the members of the unity government, especially Gantz and Gallant, as well as Netanyahu. But none of those figures has carried the mantle of leadership during this crisis, and Netanyahu wants to be seen as the main driver of these policies. The inevitable political fallout from the choice that will have to be made soon will fall mostly on him.

Plus, let's not forget about the accountability for Israel's shocking lack of intel and preparation for October 7. 

Just the fact that Netanyahu is making plans for another election changes calculations in the US -- or should. The Times of Israel notes a curious turnaround from Schumer already, although it's not clear whether it's linked to Netanyahu's electoral ambitions per se:

Less than two months after declaring that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be replaced in early elections, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is reportedly set to sign off on an invitation for the Israeli premier to address a joint session of Congress.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson announced last month that he would seek Schumer’s buy-in for the invitation in support of Israel amid the ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza.

The Hill reports that Johnson sent the draft invitation to Schumer last month and quotes the Senate leader’s office as saying that he is now ready to get on board.

Schumer's demand for Netanyahu's resignation in the middle of a war came less than two months ago. Pelosi's came not long afterward. Now, suddenly, Schumer's up for a Netanyahu speech on his own turf. What happened? For one thing, it turns out that four in five Americans support Israel in this fight and don't think that the world has changed so "radically" that it should cave to radical jihadi terrorism. And for another, the truth is that Netanyahu's chances for electoral victory look better than Biden's, and that will prove embarrassing to Democrats. Again.