The New York Times has a writeup that shows that number one cause of death among children is gun violence.

The CDC released a study making this case. But when you dig into the numbers the story changes by quite a bit. In fact, all it is telling you is that violent crime is on the rise among teenagers, not that young kids are getting whacked at an alarming rate. Gang members are, but the problem is all those activists who are trying to destroy our criminal justice system, not 5 year olds getting shot.

The U.S. is an extreme outlier in child gun deaths. Researchers found that among large and wealthy nations, the U.S. accounted for 46% of the child population but 97% of all child gun deaths. See our examination of how guns are shaping American childhood. https://t.co/qrco9L6vQv

— The New York Times (@nytimes) December 18, 2022

When you hear that the leading cause of death among “children,” do you immediately jump to the conclusion that we are talking about 15-18 year-old gang bangers?

I sure wasn’t. I was thinking kids. You know, those innocent pre-teens who run around the playground using slides and swings. Not the older kids who are hanging around the playground hoping to deal fentanyl to unsuspecting children who don’t understand the dangers of drugs and violence.

This is profoundly deceptive, in much the same way that almost all gun-related statistics are. Almost no genuine children–those 14 and under, are actually victims of gun use.

When almost every gun death occurs at age 15 and up, you should shift your description from “children” to teenagers, who also happen to be the demographic where violent crimes start to occur.

It is certainly true that there has been an alarming increase in the number of gun deaths among young people, and I think it is safe to say that every person in America would rather see the number and the rate both go down. But if we are going to accomplish that goal it is vital to identify the problem using both objective data and analysis. By lumping in all gun deaths from 0-18 and failing to distinguish between the ages and circumstances, you arrive at the conclusion the NYT and the CDC want you to: the problem is guns, not behavior.

But that is false.

If you only look at this chart you will see a skyrocketing of gun violence over the past few years. Even given the fact that shootings overtook motor vehicle accidents as the leading cause of death mostly due to the dramatic drop in the former, it is clear that the trend for gun violence is super troubling. You are looking at a doubling of the share in 15 years.

You will also see something else, though–much of that increase corresponds with an increase in drug overdose deaths–they mirror each other at the point where gun deaths jumped. They rose in tandem. That can’t be a coincidence, and it isn’t. What we are seeing is a crime spike, and according to the Department of Justice teens are the most likely victims of violent crimes by a wide margin. They are also a significant fraction of the perpetrators, because the teen years are when criminal behavior begins.

There is lots of evidence to back this up, and you can even find it in the Times’ own data and presentation. The vast majority of the murders and victims live in very concentrated areas with significant poverty. If you dig into the data there is one demographic that stands out among all others: black teens who live in poverty, and who almost certainly live without fathers.

As you can see, there was almost no increase in the number of white children who were killed by guns. The bulk of the increase was in black teens. This is no less troubling, but if you want to solve the problem you first have to identify it. And all aspects of it, because I think you can be assured that not only has gun violence gone up in that demographic, but also criminal behavior in general.

Is what we are seeing an epidemic of gun violence? Well, yes and no. What I see is a collapse of society and social limits in a particular population. Drug abuse is up, crime is up, and there is a corresponding increase in gun violence because it goes together with these other factors. Limiting gun purchases, which are not legal among this population in any case, would do nothing to change any of this. It’s not like most of the guns used in these crimes are legally in the hands of these kids.

And in many ways more importantly: the people doing the killing are not the ones who the laws will actually be enforced against. We already know that violent criminals are being let off with slaps on the wrist, or not even that. Gun crimes short of causing injury are routinely not prosecuted because of the backlash against our criminal justice system.

This is not a nationwide epidemic of gun violence among children, but rather a startling increase in the number of poor black teens who are entering a life of crime. That is a vastly different problem that requires vastly different strategies to solve.

Gun control advocates are focusing on the wrong end of the problem. Gun sales have skyrocketed because citizens don’t feel safe, and one of the reasons is obvious: the criminal justice system is failing to hold criminals accountable.

When the government won’t do its job, citizens will take up arms and protect themselves. The best way to address the explosion in violence is to punish violent criminals. Some level of deterrence will occur, and over time that deterrence will have a serious effect.

And, at the very least, if we jail violent criminals they won’t be able to commit crimes and kill their neighbors. That is one way to get real progress.

The ultimate goal should be helping black families stick together, not drive them apart as we have in recent decades. A stable home with a present father is the only long-term solution to reducing violent crime among black teens. If you look at those charts it is clear that is where the problem is concentrated. So let’s do our best to help teens stay in school and join society as productive citizens, not criminals.

If The New York Times really wanted to help solve this problem and prove they think Black Lives Matter, they would have been honest about what the real problem is.