The boss has called the evening for us. We will be doing wrap up posts in the morning. As a small shop we haven’t the ability to stay up all night and turn around and create content starting tomorrow morning. My first post of the day is at 7 am Central time, which means getting up in about 6 hours or so.

So goodnight!

10:27 CST: Whitmer wins. This bugs me as much as anything tonight. She is horrible.

MICHIGAN: Fox News can project that Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer will prevail over Republican former TV host Tudor Dixon.

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) November 9, 2022

10:16 CST: Tyler Kistner is currently up in MN-02, a highly competitive race. The NYT still has this as a hold for the Democrats.

10:05 CST: Iowa finally called for Grassley:

Chuck Grassley, 89, keeps the Senate seat he’s held for more than four decades, CNN projects

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) November 9, 2022

10:05 CST:

Georgia finally called for Kemp:

BREAKING: Republican Brian Kemp wins re-election in Georgia governor's race, NBC News projects. https://t.co/rm3EekE2Ye pic.twitter.com/Pdir33eNt9

— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 9, 2022

9:56 CST: Interesting info from WaPo

Just got the network exit polls and AP Vote Cast results. Extrapolating from the gender breaks, the exit poll has the Rs winning the national vote by 4% and Vote Cast has Rs winning by a bit under 2%. So good, but not the night I thought was coming.https://t.co/uLKtePFeJA

— Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) November 9, 2022

9:54 CST:

WI-Sen: Despite Barnes leading with half the vote in, Ron Johnson should pull it out pretty handily. The two Dem bastions, Dane and Milwaukee, are significantly over reporting and even there Johnson is doing better than Trump in 2020. Johnson should pull ahead to stay soon.

— Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) November 9, 2022

9:48 CST: The race hasn’t been called yet, but Grassley is pulling way ahead in Iowa. As you may recall I called this the most boring Senate race in the nation, and I stand by that call.

9:46 CST: Wisconsin is turning redder as the evening goes on, as expected. Johnson is starting to pull ahead, but Michels has a tougher hill to climb:

9:37 CST: Trump inserting himself into the midterms is going to be a huge flash point in Republican circles in coming days and weeks. Clearly after tonight DeSantis is up and Trump is down. Does that mean a civil war for Republicans in coming months?

The midterms thus far suggest that Trump is an albatross for Republican candidates who have embraced him. https://t.co/fUAbFvfYPX

— Tim O'Brien (@TimOBrien) November 9, 2022

9:34 CST/10:34 EST: Things are tightening up in Michigan in the race for governor. No idea how the votes are counted there, urban vs. rural, but this is a significant move toward Dixon

9:30 CST: I am still sticking with my call for Ron Johnson for Senate in Wisconsin, but it looks like Michels will not be able to pull it out. The question to me is: were all those ads on abortion enough to drive up Democrat turnout enough to save vulnerable Democrats?

9:27 EST: So far the night seems to be a Florida tsunami and a drizzle everywhere else. The night is still younger than older, but the hopes that a Republican tsunami would wipe away all vulnerable Democrats is clearly not working out.

9:10 CST: I wasn’t even paying attention, because I find Iowa so boring. The Governor’s race was called long ago. Iowa Senate not yet called. The vote count is still early.

Oops. Sorry. It was a foregone conclusion. Thanks to John Shepherd for pointing this out!

9:00 CST: New York Times is projecting Republican control of the US Senate:

8:55 CST: Looking at Wisconsin one interesting thing to note is that Ron Johnson is running a couple points ahead of Michels, the Republican candidate for governor. This indicates that Johnson (who is running behind right now, but will win) may win but the incumbent Dem governor may hold on.

8:51 CST This is important to note:

Beto raised $60M
Charlie Crist raised $35M
Stacey Abrams raised $105M

They all lost. Badly.

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) November 9, 2022

8:49 CST: NYT predictions on the Senate:

8:46 CST Babylon Bee calls it for Kemp

Incumbent Governor Stacey Abrams Loses Bid For Reelectionhttps://t.co/dm10aHKTiO

— Kyle Mann (@The_Kyle_Mann) November 9, 2022

8:42 CST: Way too early to get any feel for WI

8:39 CST: Again, Glenn Greenwald hits the nail on the head. The parasite political class fleeces donors

It's amazing how much money Democratic voters waste on social media stars in clearly unwinnable races, doing nothing but enriching Dem consultants.

$75m on Beto. $70m on Demings. $11m on MTG's opponent (someone named Marcus Flowers).

At least Dem consultants got new boats.⛵️ https://t.co/xdidOkBUBs

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 9, 2022

8:33 CST: Ohio is turning around for Vance:

8:31CST: Georgia just called for Kemp over Abrams. Sweet

GEORGIA RACE CALLED: Incumbent Republican @BrianKempGA is projected to win the #GeorgiaGovernor race, according to @NewsNation / @DecisionDeskHQ #Election2022 #Georgia Live Updates: https://t.co/9Mtlm0GpxQ pic.twitter.com/yLVmrUevbj

— NewsNation (@NewsNation) November 9, 2022

For context understanding what is going on.

CNN EXIT POLL: 73% of Americans are either “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going under President Biden
pic.twitter.com/fnzYyF3u2C

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 8, 2022

8:28 CST: Some nerves among Republican commentators:

Same for me, too. It's still very possible, but maybe because we're seeing the Dem-heavy early vote first, it's not yet materializing.

— Ed Morrissey (@EdMorrissey) November 9, 2022

8:23 CST: Too early to say anything intelligent about Wisconsin. The early early returns are looking good for Dems, but that is always the case. Very few votes counted.

8:21 CST: Jensen is KILLING it! (with 2000 votes counted)

8:17 CST: From the RNC

Gov. @RonDeSantisFL: “We faced attacks, we took the hits, we weathered the storms, but we stood our ground.”

“We made promises to the people of Florida, and we have delivered on those promises.” pic.twitter.com/xiZgivvgBP

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 9, 2022

8:15 CST: The DeSantis speech was on and was awesome.

DeSantis speech: Crowd cheers “two more years!”

— Karol Markowicz (@karol) November 9, 2022

8:10 CST: Not my race, but Ohio is moving toward Vance. Too early to know what this means, but huge shift:

8:07 CST: Your Tuesday funny:

8:01 CST: Polls have closed in both MI and MN. I guess I have to work now. IA also closed, if anybody cares. Grassley will win easily.

7:58 CST/8:58 EST in Michigan: The vote counting in MI is PAINFULLY slow. Why? Who knows?

7:57 CST: Heh!

Anybody see what's wrong with this claim? https://t.co/iNpdXDdv1L

— Brit Hume (@brithume) November 9, 2022

7:47 CST–apropos of nothing, I leave this here for you. Jen Rubin is a dunce

Jennifer Rubin, meet reality: "Don’t underestimate Val Demings. She’s got Marco Rubio pegged" pic.twitter.com/P2fzJT1yFE

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) November 9, 2022

7:43 CST: Bonchie is dead right:

I don't buy that Vance is going to lose as Fox News is signaling, but if he does, there's no excuse. None.

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) November 9, 2022

7:39 CST: Glenn Greenwald hits the nose on the head

"We don't say Election Night, any more. It's now Election Month"– NBC's Lester Holt and Savannah Guthrie having a hearty laugh over the fact that the US — the world's richest country – can no longer count votes or decide elections in one night, or even in one week.

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 9, 2022

7:36 CST: One race I am watching closely is the MN Attorney General seat. The incumbent, Keith Ellison, is a Soros candidate and is in deep trouble. It has been 60 years since a Republican held that seat:

Y’all, we TWO hours until the polls close. If you haven’t voted, find your polling place and get there! Call a friend, a family member and invite them to participate in democracy—because everybody counts and everybody matters. We got this—let's go! pic.twitter.com/hiEs56Qg1E

— Keith Ellison (@keithellison) November 9, 2022

8:22 EST: I am following the Detroit News. Way too early to figure out what is happening in MI

Follow along with our coverage of the governor's race right here.

Tracking with @hmackayDN and @SarahRahal_.

We'll be here all night, folks. https://t.co/rdF3b68MSz

— Craig Mauger (@CraigDMauger) November 9, 2022

UPDATE FROM DETROIT: Absentee ballot counting operation is running smoothly, @DetroitAguilar reports.

Detroit had 63,000 absentee ballots tabulated at 6:30 p.m.

This is because of a new law allowing pre-processing and tabulation starting at 7 a.m. today.https://t.co/S7EhtoRw1X

— Chad Livengood (@ChadLivengood) November 9, 2022

8:20 EST Polls are closed in MI, Whitmer is killing Dixon. Means absolutely nothing. I only put this here because I felt guilty for not saying anything.

Thank God for Florida!

I have been skittish as a cat on a hot tin roof, a junkie without a fix, and a smoker who lost his pack of Marlboros. I hate waiting for election returns, and I bet you do too. It’s like waiting for results from the biopsy.

Yet here we are. The big reveal. Benign? Or malignant?

The big boss has assigned me to follow the election returns in 3 states tonight: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa–with a personal bonus of commenting on Minnesota’s general election results because I live here. Everybody in America is desperate to hear about MN, right?

MICHIGAN:

The race to watch in Michigan is the gubernatorial contest between Gretchen Whitmer and her Republican opponent Tudor Dixon. Dixon is a proud MAGA candidate who won the nomination with the backing of President Trump, and she was widely assumed to be a loser of a choice. How wrong the predictions turned out to be! While far more conservative than the median Michigander, she is very smart and articulate, and doesn’t grate on the nerves as her opponent does.

Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan was a lockdown fanatic and potential Democrat presidential hopeful. I dislike her intensely and both predict and hope she loses. Early in the race she was considered a shoe-in, and the polls reflected that. But over the campaign her ratings have sunk like a stone, and now the race is essentially tied. Expect this race to be close. I called it earlier for Dixon, but that was wishcasting, not forecasting. Today the tale is told.

WISCONSIN:

The Wisconsin Senate race matters both for obvious reasons–winning the seat is vital to Republican power in the Senate–and because I called the race early for Johnson and I want to look smart. Johnson is the incumbent and was considered extremely vulnerable. He is considered and likely is too conservative for the state, and his opponent Mandela Barnes has won statewide office and was favored to win by some. Barnes, though, is weighed down by the fact that he is a Democrat–and nobody likes Democrats. In September Barnes was up by 5+ points, but current polling shows him down by 3.6.

Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race has had a similar trajectory. The incumbent Democrat Tony Evers was up for most of the campaign, although by a smaller margin than Barnes, but come October he fell behind and has stayed there. His opponent Tim Michels has a very very slim lead, but expect him to pull it out by riding the wave. If Evers wins it will be a disappointment, but not a surprise.

IOWA:

Iowa? Does anybody actually care about Iowa politics besides Iowans? (Just kidding! Minnesotans are constitutionally required to make fun of Iowans). Both incumbent Governor Kim Reynolds and incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley are up for reelection, but not even RealClearPolitics has much on the races because they are not competitive. A nuclear explosion probably couldn’t change the outcome there.

Bonus–MINNESOTA:

All the constitutional offices as well as the entire legislature are up for reelection. The incumbent governor Tim Walz is favored to win, but all the down ballot constitutional offices are up for grabs. Walz’ opponent Scott Jensen has an outside chance, but no Republican has won a gubernatorial race without a credible 3rd party candidate on the ballot since Moses came down with the commandments.

Still, Minnesota could be interesting. The state has developed a particularly acute rural vs. urban rivalry, with dramatic shifts away from the Democrats outstate and consolidation of Democrat control in inner ring suburbs that used to be solidly Red. The George Floyd riots started here, and they may hurt the Democrats enough to cost them significant votes.

The big race to watch is for MN Attorney General. Former state legislator, Congressman, and DNC Deputy Chair Keith Ellison is one of the most radical BLM supporters in the nation to sit in office, and he could easily lose. If so, it will be a huge blow to the Democrat Left and to Antifa, which he an others insists doesn’t actually exist anyway.