#Bidenomics Update: Or 'How to Crash a Soft Landing'

Meme

Did y'all hear that boom in the distance this morning? 

Schmaybe get a foul whiff of something burning in the air? 

Perhaps saw a pale wisp of smoke on the horizon and wonder, "What now?"

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It was only the economy tanking. No bigs.

The big babies on Wall Street swooned. I wonder if Biden's gonna chew them out now, too.

Stocks tumbled Thursday after the latest U.S. economic data showed a sharp slowdown in growth and pointed to persistent inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 493 points, or 1.3%, weighed down by steep declines in Caterpillar and IBM. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.3%.

U.S. gross domestic product expanded 1.6% in the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast GDP growth would come in at 2.4%.


Along with the downbeat growth rate for the quarter, the report showed consumer prices increased at a 3.4% pace, well above the previous quarter’s 1.8% advance. This raised concern over persistent inflation and put into question whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates anytime soon.

Well, huh. So we were right about what things cost again. Man, for dumb clucks, we sure are smart.

But when you break into the numbers, besides costing us an arm, leg, and three quarts of blood, what does it mean?

The word used to describe what is in play is STAGFLATION. It has nothing to do with Bambi's father but everything to do with ending up just as badly.

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...First, Q1 2024 GDP growth slowed to just 1.6% which is less than HALF of the 3.4% Q4 2023 number. 

This reading is roughly 50% BELOW Goldman Sach's expectations. 

But it gets even worse. 

At the same time, the US Core PCE Price Index soared from 2.0% to a staggering 3.7%

This crushed estimates of 3.4% and further suggests that inflation is on the rise

We have a weakening economy with rising inflation. 

The worst possible outcome for the Fed.

No one's used that "stagflation" word in relation to the United States since the 70's. Hmmm.

The '70s were the age of Jimmy Carter's "turn down your heat" exhortations and his infamous "malaise" speech. 

 ...Although his White House staff was leery of the speech and of the honesty with which Carter described the problems facing the nation, polls afterward were very positive. But the next year, interest rates were rising, industries collapsing, and joblessness increasing, all while Carter was in the midst of the 444-day hostage crisis in Iran that strained the last year of his presidency. The words of his earlier speech rang hollow and were easily mocked as the “malaise speech.” As Reagan said, “people who talk about an age of limits are really talking about their own limitations, not America’s.” One scholar who summed up the speech noted that Carter had run in 1976 promising “a government as good as the people” but in the “malaise speech” suggested that the American people themselves were no good.

Few politicians could have survived the tumultuous problems Carter faced in his four years in office. Given an opponent like Ronald Reagan, who was optimistic, touted plans to develop economic growth and confront the Soviet Union, and possessed of a sunny faith in America, Carter was easily defeated.

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There are a lot of parallels with that at the moment, no? An ineffectual president - although I would never question Carter's love for this country and I have every reason to doubt Biden's. Also the disappointment in the American people oozing from the Oval Office, only in Biden's case now, it's constant contempt. We're too stupidly dense to see the wonders of this presidency. Too stubbornly backward and MAGA MAGA MAGA.

Consumer spending, which drives roughly 60+% of the economy, also took a hit. I can't imagine why, given how wonderful everything is, but it sure seems like people don't have as much to spend on superfluous goodies as they used to.

...Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, moderated during the first quarter. It rose 2.5% for the period, down from the 3.3% figure recorded the previous quarter amid signs the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation has stalled. 

The report showed that an inflation gauge closely watched by the Fed rose 3.4% during the first quarter, the largest gain in a year. Excluding food and energy, prices jumped 3.7%. Both figures point to inflation that is still running well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target even as the economy starts to slow in the face of higher interest rates.

Darn, dense consumers.

...However, there are signs that growth is finally beginning to slow in the face of tighter monetary policy. Job growth is moderating. The housing market, which is vulnerable to higher interest rates, is trapped in a prolonged downturn, and consumer spending has shown signs of cooling off.

Many economists expect to see further cooling in coming months as higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy.

"The economy will likely decelerate further in the following quarters as consumers are likely near the end of their spending splurge," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "Savings rates are falling as sticky inflation puts greater pressure on the consumer."

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And look at what the dapper dementia patient is concentrating on.

"The worst of both worlds" is what one analyst Fox talked to said. He meant inflation and slowing growth hitting at the same time. 

POTATUS being allowed to continue clunking through fields of economic and political disasters is the worst of both worlds for me.





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Ed Morrissey 12:40 PM | November 21, 2024
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David Strom 11:20 AM | November 21, 2024
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