The Chinese chairman AND the missus are in Hanoi (She’s “super classy” you know). They’ve arrived on a major charm offensive, hoping to strengthen ties with the Vietnamese and help cement that area firmly in China’s corner.

China’s First Lady Peng Liyuan is super classy and is a great diplomat for Xi Jinping during his foreign trips.

She does an excellent job while keeping a low profile and staying out of controversies. Tough balance.

pic.twitter.com/kV6fEVpXvG #Vietnam

— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) December 13, 2023

They were busy laying the groundwork the week before, sending typical Chinese signals of dominance and making sure everyone knew alliances with Vietnam’s neighbors were good and tight.

Chinese naval vessels have become the first ships to dock at a new pier at a Cambodian naval base that the United States and some international security analysts say is destined to serve as a strategic outpost for Beijing’s navy.

The docking of the two ships, which received little publicity, coincided with an official visit to Cambodia this week by China’s top defense official, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission He Weidong.

…Controversy over Ream Naval Base initially arose in 2019 when The Wall Street Journal reported that an early draft of a reputed agreement seen by U.S. officials would allow China 30-year use of the base, where it would be able to post military personnel, store weapons and berth warships.

Cambodia’s then-Prime Minister Hun Sen denied there was such an agreement. He pointed out that Cambodia’s constitution does not allow foreign military bases to be established on its soil, but said visiting ships from all nations are welcome.

…A Chinese base in Cambodia could become a chokepoint in the Gulf of Thailand close to the strategically important Malacca Strait.

Slick little “take that” to the US and some muscle flexing for Vietnam to appreciate all in one fell swoop.

Xi was anxious to personally pull the Vietnamese closer because he sees them as moving out of Chinese orbit of influence. There was Biden’s visit just this past September, and tons of American manufacturing has now settled in the country. It’s booming. But Vietnam has also been reaching out to other friends in the Indo-Pacific region and strengthening those ties in the face of Chinese aggression, and that has the Chinese concerned. The one which really sticks in Beijing’s craw are the new ties with Japan.

A “free and open Indo-Pacific”? Not at all the direction Xi wants the region and Vietnam to go.

China wants to run this show.

Beijing should be concerned about Hanoi’s upgraded ties with Tokyo because the two countries share a common perspective on regional security matters, say experts.

Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the Vietnam-Japan Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on November 27 when Thuong visited Japan.

According to their joint statement provided by Japan’s Foreign Ministry, Kishida and Thuong agreed to expand their cooperation in areas including trade, climate change and economy to achieve a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”

…The upgrade in the nations’ relationship from what had been known as an intensive strategic partnership came after a similar move almost three months ago between Hanoi and Washington. The announcement makes Japan Hanoi’s sixth top-tier partner, with Australia, Singapore and Indonesia expected to follow suit.

…The upgrade in the nations’ relationship from what had been known as an intensive strategic partnership came after a similar move almost three months ago between Hanoi and Washington. The announcement makes Japan Hanoi’s sixth top-tier partner, with Australia, Singapore and Indonesia expected to follow suit.

So it would make sense that the Chairman would hotfoot it to Hanoi, fistful of deals in his hands, and try to work some smooth magic on the neighbors. Maybe offer a big-brotherly word of caution, too. Kind of the “Don’t go messing with things you don’t understand, kid” talk…or threat.

Xi literally said that.

China and Vietnam should oppose any “attempt to mess up Asia-Pacific”, President Xi Jinping said Wednesday during a trip to Hanoi, as Beijing seeks to counter expanding US influence with the communist nation.

The trip is Xi’s first to neighbouring Vietnam in six years, and the two nations committed to deeper ties and signed more than 30 agreements, including a pledge to develop rail links between Vietnam and China.

The two-day visit comes after Hanoi upgraded diplomatic ties with Washington when US President Joe Biden visited in September.

So they rolled out the welcome mat for benignly malevolent Winnie Pooh look-alike, and Xi was as gracious as he ever is in these situations.

President #XiJinping: China ready to work with Vietnam to promote China-Vietnam community with a shared future #ChinaVietnam pic.twitter.com/6XTWiAY7hn

— CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) December 13, 2023

But the Vietnamese weren’t falling for the hand-stuck-in-the-honey-pot trick. They were on their game around the master manipulator. Xi went home empty handed on many of the more critical agreements he was looking for and still had money in his pocket he had wanted to give away.

Communist-ruled China and Vietnam, at odds over claims in the South China Sea, agreed on Tuesday to boost ties and build a community with a “shared future”, three months after Hanoi upgraded its formal relations with the United States.

…As China and the United States vie for influence in the strategic nation, the agreements mark an achievement of Vietnam’s “Bamboo diplomacy”, although analysts and diplomats said the improvement in relations could be more symbolic than real.

The two sides fought over the phrasing of the Chinese favored “shared future” agreement, because frankly, the Vietnamese are not fans of Beijing. Most observers feel it was a hollow Chinese victory in the end and the Vietnamese maintained their independence.

…As China and the United States vie for influence in the strategic nation, the agreements mark an achievement of Vietnam’s “Bamboo diplomacy”, although analysts and diplomats said the improvement in relations could be more symbolic than real.

…”Vietnam’s mistrust of China runs deep, and from the Vietnamese people’s viewpoint, there is little to no ‘shared destiny’ between the two countries, as long as China continues to claim most of the South China Sea,” he said.

Despite close economic ties, the neighbours have been at odds over boundaries in the South China Sea and have a millennia-long history of conflict.

…Apart from taking ties to a level Beijing may consider above those with the United States, the upgraded status came with the announcement of 36 cooperation deals, according to a list of documents seen by Reuters, and the joint statement on diplomatic ties.

That was short of 45 initially proposed, according to one Vietnamese official, and missed agreements on critical minerals and rare earths on which Xi had urged more cooperation in an opinion piece published on Tuesday in a Vietnamese state newspaper.

Xi Jinping is going to have to be careful he doesn’t push too hard. Vietnamese memories don’t have to be very long to remember why, either. Chinese belligerence in the region is probably doing the exact opposite of what Xi would like it to. It’s rekindling memories of precisely why the Chinese aren’t to be trusted.

Almost 40 years after a short yet devastating war launched by China in 1979, there has been not any official commemoration of the war in Vietnam. The fierce fight from February 17 to March 16, 1979, claimed tens of thousands of lives, soldiers and civilians alike, in Vietnam’s border provinces, but the conflict hasn’t received the same level of attention as wars against the French and Americans.

Yet since the escalation of tensions with China in the South China Sea in recent years, the Sino-Vietnamese war has begun receiving renewed media attention. For this year’s anniversary, Vietnamese people used social media to vocally commemorate martyrs and civilians who died in the war, followed by debates criticizing the government for remaining silent and neglecting the war in high school history textbooks.

The Chinese, even with their overwhelming strength, were “crushed.”

…The PLA’s performance in the 1979 war was so bad, even Vietnamese commanders were surprised, according to some sources. This was a result of its reliance on Korean War–style infantry assault tactics, due to the operational inflexibility and stagnation of military thought in the PLA. The layout of the command structure, and the infrastructure that supported it, could not support maneuver warfare by smaller units of higher-quality forces.

Memories and massive casualties for both sides. That ignominious thrashing by a supposedly vastly inferior country in a war they themselves had started would lead to the Chinese completely revamping the way they waged warfare, and the rise of the modern People’s Liberation Army.

Vietnam won’t trust them any time soon, if ever.

There’s an economic advantage for Vietnam, too. The country only has one Chinese-funded Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) railroad, and it’s so small, that it’s not classified as such. Thanks mostly due to that distrust and resentment of the Chinese, they have been unable to buy their way into influence in the country, and that has worked in Vietnam’s tremendously. Unlike many developing nations who took BRI money, the Chinese do not “own” Vietnam.

After this short visit, they still don’t, and that’s pretty neat.

We need all the friends we can get out there.