What a morning.

First off, we’ll get a big number out of the way, because a ton of it is smoke and mirrors anyhow.

The third quarter GDP came in at booming 4.9%, which, under any other circumstances and any other administration, would have people popping corks. But with the runaway printing press we have in power right now, it’s merely another portent of significant potential problems.

+4.9 %. Gonna be revised twice more but a huge number. Dig into it a little, you'll see it's mostly because of government spending, and increased housing costs. Not nearly as healthy as it looks. pic.twitter.com/hv5LwYnJED

— Frog Capital (@FrogNews) October 26, 2023

Housing costs have driven a bit of a skew into the numbers. As in “housing is so damn high, no one can buy a house” skew.

ATL Fed: homeownership affordability index hits new record low in Aug – it now takes 44.6% of the median household income (before-tax) to pay for a median price home; that's well over half of after-tax income… pic.twitter.com/m2ywvhDIu2

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) October 26, 2023

“Divorced from reality” applies in many cases.

Yes, GDP is adjusted for inflation, but housing costs exceed the inflation rate so housing, utilities, and insurance added over a point to the number today.
All of the domestic investment was inventory build. adding another 1.28%.
Strange report. pic.twitter.com/1pvTVCFgAE

— Frog Capital (@FrogNews) October 26, 2023

Just about everything qualifies for “strange” these days.

Strange, indeed, are the labor battles in process, being concluded or the consequences of their conclusion beginning to be apparent.

For example, I covered the United Parcel Service (UPS) tussle with a truculent Teamsters Union over the course of the summer. It resulted in a monster contract for those drivers, not to mention long overdue safety and comfort upgrades like air-conditioning in their delivery trucks.

UPS had their earnings call before the bell this morning, and little brother Crusader – who is in financials himself – was so surprised at the language on Bloomberg TVs’ coverage, he had to send me a screenshot.

You don’t often see a headline that uses “shreds” in regards to profits, but there it is.

UPS Cuts Forecast Again After New Labor Deal Shreds Profit

They’re also down almost half from where they were a year ago. Adding to the profit struggles is weak package delivery demand. Volume there is still down significantly.

United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) shares are under pressure in the pre-market session today after the logistics major’s third-quarter revenue of $21.1 billion declined by 12.8% year-over-year, missing expectations by $410 million. However, EPS of $1.57 outpaced estimates by $0.05.

Amid an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, the company’s operating profit plummeted by 56.9% to $1.3 billion. Although parcel volume, which had been affected during UPS’ labor negotiations, is beginning to normalize, the average daily volume in the U.S. witnessed an 11.5% decline during the quarter. In sync, the average daily volume in UPS’ International segment saw a 6.6% decline.

UPS stock is getting hammered.

They’re gonna hafta to move lots of stuff to pay for those new contracts, so there needs to be lots of stuff to move. From a state of the economy aspect, that could be the sticking point in the equation.

The United Auto Workers have also been at war with their various employers over contract terms since the middle of August. The biggest targets – the Detroit 3 (D-3) as they’re known – are Stellantis, Ford and General Motors, but they’ve also had Mack Truck employees walk out after rejecting a new contract.

Pugnacious union president Shawn Fain has himself a victory to crow about this morning.

I mean, like, the numbers – DAY-YUM.

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union reached a tentative labor deal on Wednesday with Ford Motor (F.N), the first of Detroit’s Big Three car manufacturers to negotiate a settlement to strikes joined by 45,000 workers since mid-September.

The proposed accord, which UAW’s leadership must still approve, provides a 25% wage hike over the 4-1/2-year contract, starting with an initial increase of 11%.

The Ford deal, which could help create a template for settlements of parallel UAW strikes against General Motors (GM.N) and Chrysler parent Stellantis (STLAM.MI), would amount to total pay hikes of more than 33% when compounding and cost-of-living mechanisms are factored in, the UAW said.

“We told Ford to pony up and they did,” Fain said in a video post on Facebook, adding that the strike at Ford “has delivered”.

In addition to the general wage hike, Fain said the lowest-paid temporary workers would see raises of more than 150% over the contract term and employees would reach top pay after three years. The union also won the right to strike over future plant closures, he said.

The UAW also succeeded in eliminating lower-pay tiers for workers in certain parts operations at Ford – an issue Fain highlighted from the start of the bargaining process, wearing T-shirts with the slogan “End Tiers.”

All I can say is if you were thinking about buying a Ford, buy it NOW.

Between interest rates, Ford’s profits going to keep the EV line afloat, and now these huge wage increases? Who is going to be able to afford any vehicle that rolls off a Ford assembly line?

Smelling blood in the water, the UAW has ratcheted up the pressure on Stellantis, whose management thought they were negotiating in good faith.

Hah! The union sure had them fooled.

They called a walkout at the company’s “lucrative” Dodge Ram plant because Stellantis offered 23% to the 25% the UAW was demanding. That’ll be $200M a week Stellantis loses now.

#UAW ups the ante with $STLA striking its largest and most lucrative plant, which will more than double the impact of the strike on Stellantis to more than $200 million in lost profits/week, according to estimates from Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan.https://t.co/JzjpjgKejB pic.twitter.com/3nB7pgLQa1

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) October 23, 2023

I have to agree with the analyst I listened to this morning, who said things are “fraying at the edges.” You can feel them unraveling. even as the powers that be wonder why the average American isn’t thrilled with #Bidenomics

Dudes – it’s because we have to live with what it’s doing to us. Watching more bad news erupt, like insanely out of proportion contracts while the president himself totters alongside union leadership, just increases that sense of the snowball of doom gathering mass as it heads down the hill towards us.

…“We see at the margins the consumer is under a lot of pressure and, in fact, the labor market is under a lot of pressure as well. We had a good payrolls month, but if you look at a lot of the indicators of where the labor market is likely to go, a lot of them are fraying at the edges,” Watling said.

“We’re going to get to the point in the next few months when I think the labor market starts to deteriorate more meaningfully and that’ll kickstart the recession when we get there,” he added.

…“I think the U.S. is in for a tough time.”

I’ve got no argument.

I can only try to figure out the best way to buckle up.