On Tuesday, November 7, 2023, the people of Kentucky will go the the polls to vote for governor. Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is running for reelection against his Republican challenger, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

For the better part of the summer, Beshear – touted as one of “America’s 5 most popular governors” – has maintained a steady range – between 4 to 10 points – in his lead over Cameron.

An incumbent Democrat running on kitchen table issues will be pitted against a Republican culture warrior in the Kentucky governor’s race this fall, and the results could send a signal about voters’ priorities in close races heading into 2024.

At the annual Fancy Farm picnic in rural far-west Kentucky this past weekend, Gov. Andy Beshear and his Republican challenger, state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, channeled what might become familiar playbooks for Democratic and GOP candidates next year.

Beshear is seeking a second term this November as one of America’s most popular governors with the approval of not just a majority of Democrats and independents, but also about half of the state’s GOP voters. He’s achieved that by presiding over Kentucky’s largest budget surplus ever and leading the state through a strong economic recovery from the pandemic, as well as recovery from tornadoes and floods that hit red, rural areas of the state particularly hard. He’s using that record to contrast himself with Cameron: “Daniel Cameron will show up for a political rally, but not for tornado survivors,” Beshear said at the picnic.

But it might not be all moonlight and roses for the popular governor coming into the home stretch.

Cameron has a pretty solid record of his own that he’s running on, which has come into open conflict with Beshear’s big blue policies several times.

…But Cameron, who would become the first Black Republican governor in the US if elected, is also popular in Kentucky. He made a name for himself by suing the Beshear and Biden administrations over issues such as abortion, vaccine mandates, and the termination of a Trump-era border policy. He also led the criminal investigation into the fatal shooting of Breonna Taylor in which he opted not to pursue charges against any of the officers involved. He won the May primary with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

And on the campaign trail, he’s sought to attack Beshear’s positions on issues from the state’s ban on care for trans youth to crime. At the picnic, he asked, “Governor, are you auditioning for a job with Bud Light’s marketing team?” referencing the massive conservative boycott of the beer brand following its collaboration with a prominent trans influencer.

There’s also a well of simmering resentment over Beshear’s handling of the COVID lockdowns. He may have led the state to a “strong recovery,” but how he led through the pandemic itself is a sore point to this day with many residents, and they are quick to remind people of it.

Three of Beshear’s citizens sued him after being “ordered to quarantine” for attending Easter church services. They won their case, but the state had to cover the tab for Beshear’s authoritarian tendencies.

Kentucky state government will have to pay $272,142.50 in legal fees to plaintiffs who sued Gov. Andy Beshear over his COVID-19 lockdown policies. The federal appeals court rendered that decision on Monday.

Three plaintiffs — Randall Daniel, TJ Roberts, and Sally O’Boyle — sued the Beshear administration related to orders to quarantine after they attended a 2020 Easter church service. The three were awarded attorneys’ fees by the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals.

…The three plaintiffs attended an Easter service at Maryville Baptist Church in 2020 and received notices from officials who knew they attended that day and warned them of future “enforcement measures.”

In May 2020, Judge David Hale of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Kentucky ruled in favor of the plaintiffs and allowed Maryville Baptist Church to hold in-person worship services.

U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) tweeted, “Kentucky Gov. Beshear nailed for plaintiffs’ attorneys’ fees over his unconstitutional ban of church services due to COVID. Too bad it comes out of the taxpayers’ pockets and not his.”

Daniel Cameron was also instrumental in preventing Beshear’s administration from escaping scrutiny as far as school COVID closures. When a FOIA records request was made by the Republican Party of KY for correspondence related to the closure, etc., of 13 schools, the governor’s office rejected most of it as “too broad.” The RPK then appealed to Cameron’s office.

…Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear violated Kentucky’s open records law by denying a request for correspondences related to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the state’s Republican attorney general.

In an order issued Tuesday, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron wrote that Beshear’s office wrongly denied a records request from the Republican Party of Kentucky for correspondence to or from 13 named officials “mentioning or related to school closures, remote leaning, nontraditional instruction or NTI, KEA or the Kentucky Education Association, JCTA or the Jefferson County Teachers Association” from 2020 to the present.

Beshear also vetoed the Kentucky legislature’s anti-gender affirming care for minors bill, saying it would “increase suicides” and allow “excessive government interference in personal health decisions.” He expressed no concern about saving children from irreparable harm or sparing them irreversible surgeries for a lifetime of pain and suffering.

Fortunately, huge majorities in both houses of the legislature allowed Kentucky lawmakers to override that veto.

Republican lawmakers in Kentucky on Wednesday overturned the governor’s veto of a bill to ban transgender youths from gender-affirming healthcare and restrict which toilets they use in public schools, voting in line with a national conservative-led movement.

Both chambers of Kentucky’s general assembly, where Republicans hold large majorities, voted overwhelmingly to override last week’s veto by Democratic Governor Andy Beshear, who is running for reelection in November.

This is part of the “culture warrior” shadow the media is trying to cast on Cameron and make him scary to swing voters, along with “right-wing, school choice billionaires” financing him and the Trump endorsement. All the boogiemen of classic Democratic demagoguery.

I don’t think it’s going to stick and it’s certainly not going to stop Cameron. He’s unafraid to be seen in public and speak to his beliefs with like-minded souls.

I’m covering the Jefferson County GOP Lincoln Day Dinner tonight. Speakers include Attorney General Daniel Cameron, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and former UK swimmer Riley Gaines. Story to come later. pic.twitter.com/xbhbMoYXmS

— McKenna Horsley (@mckennahorsley) August 24, 2023

Crime is also an issue in this year’s race, even though Kentucky’s rate is lower than the U.S. average. Cameron has released what he calls his “12 Point Cameron Public Safety Plan.” The Kentucky State Fraternal Order of Police, who endorsed Beshear in his 2019 election, announced they were switching their endorsement to Cameron in this year’s contest.

I'm the only candidate in the race for Governor endorsed by @KYSTATEFOP, the state's largest police organization. We need a governor who backs the blue and that’s exactly the kind of Governor I’ll be. pic.twitter.com/rQOlrNdhz0

— Daniel Cameron (@DanielCameronAG) August 21, 2023

That was a pretty big get.

There’s also been some shifting in the electorate since Beshear’s first win in 2019. He was running against a really unpopular incumbent, and it was still a squeaker. He won’t have that going for him this time.

In additional potential Beshear bad news, the GOP has taken the lead in registrations for the first time ever.

Kentucky’s Republican Party, already dominant at the ballot box, has achieved another long-sought milestone, overtaking the Democratic Party in statewide voter registration.

The Kentucky State Board of Elections announced Friday that the number of registered Republican voters stands at 1,612,060, compared with 1,609,569 registered Democrats.

“After a century and a half, the birthplace of Lincoln has finally aligned with the party of Lincoln,” Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams said.

Part of that is down home, plain old hard work by Republican folks in the state. But I also have to give props to absolutely tireless activists like Scott Presler – God bless him – who go selflessly around the country actually talking to voters. And then come up with really inventive, effective, personal, and LEGAL grassroots outreach programs that get people excited to participate on all sides of the action.

Mailed my 5 cards to Kentucky today in support of Daniel Cameron who is running for Governor. . Fun and easy to do.
So happy to be able to help with this small effort for @ScottPresler who is doing so much for the conservative movement.
🙏❤🤍💙🇺🇸@EarlyVoteAction @GOPChairwoman pic.twitter.com/HbjshjUuVJ

— 🇺🇸Sheri (@Sherispillane) August 28, 2023

Things hopefully tighten up considerably during the next month. Cameron is a proven, elected official in a deep red state that should care enough about the state to turn up and turn Beshear out of office.

But, boy – those blue bubbles in a red map are hard to beat if you don’t.