You can just take 2023 back, already. Good gravy goodness.

Now, it’s raining in California and their reservoirs are filling up, so droughts do – as we all know – break eventually. But they are painful to deal with when the effects are felt, and I’m hearing that’s what we’re up for next in the Wild World of Supermarket Shelves.

It’s been really hot and dry in Europe this summer. That’s made it tough on olives and olive growers.

Experts are warning that olive oil could join the list of kitchen staples seeing a price hike this year.

Droughts and intense heat ravaged olive-producing regions across Europe in 2022, causing a poor harvest season that will likely see supplies dwindle.

…Dusan Kaljevic, CEO of Filippo Berio U.S., tells Food & Wine, “Filippo Berio estimates that the global harvest will deliver only about 2.6/2.7 million metric tons of product — 400,000 metric tons less than a typical good harvest.” He adds, “We are projecting 20% less final product, which will result in 30%-50% price increases, depending on the type of oil.”

Spanish production is way down, too. Dang. I’m especially fond of Spanish EVO.

…”In Spain, production was down around 50%, which made it the worst year in the past 15,” said Jon Davis, chief meteorologist for Everstream Analytics, a supply chain predictive insights and risk analytics company. “The wide-scale drought conditions across Europe, Mediterranean countries, significantly impacted the global supply since approximately 80% of the olive production comes from this area.”

The CEO of one olive oil producer told the Grocer, a U.K.-based trade publication, that he doubted that Spain had enough supply to cover domestic needs. He said that he believes there will be no olive oil available by the fourth quarter of 2023.

They’re also saying that where normally Turkey and Syria could help pick up the slack, the recent catastrophic earthquakes have taken them completely out of the picture. And olives aren’t like a tomato shortage, where you can just shift your supply source. They are only grown in one region. Plus, the taste is so important, especially to the smaller batch growers who produce a finer product.

…It’s not just olive oil quantity that droughts and heatwaves will impact either. []Casey] Corn [olive researcher/culinary consultant] shares that environmental changes can affect olive oil’s taste too.

“That’s why the concept of terroir, that the environment a crop is grown in is fundamental to its flavor, is so meaningful, and why we protect it with certifications like AOP, DPO, DOC, etc.,” Corn says. She continues, “For the larger olive oil producers, smaller crops may mean they need to import more olives from different locations, which will also impact the resulting flavor.”

This is going to cause a major headache for a ton of people.

Now, there’s only the two of us. So I haven’t really noticed the price increases yet, as I haven’t had to buy any in a while. But whoa, dawg. It sure looks like I’ll be in for a rude surprise.

…”As for the American situation, the first issue is price,” said Davis. “Consumer prices have risen 30% to 50% depending upon the area.”

So far, olive oil market prices have soared since record heat and drought parched major olive-producing countries like Spain, Italy, Tunisia and Portugal. Y Charts puts the cost at $5,893.30 per metric ton (2,205 pounds) – up 38.6% from a year ago. That is a 46% increase since July, when record temperatures crushed hopes of a plentiful harvest.

The worst part about it is, the product’s so volatile, you can’t stockpile olive oil like you can dried/canned goods or stack toilet paper to the ceiling in the garage. Running out and hoarding it will do you no good.

… “Olive oil does not last forever and degrades with time, so stocking up with large supplies now does not solve the problem,” Davis explained. “This is especially the case for the highest quality product, the extra virgin olive oils.”

The one giggle I am getting out of all of this is thinking about Starbucks, with their expensive, nasty burnt-tasting java, and them just now rolling out their new olive oil infused coffees.

GAG

…Olive oil joins eggs as the primary grocery items that are siphoning money from consumers. It also comes at an interesting time: Starbucks is gearing up for a nationwide rollout of its Oleato line of olive oil-infused coffees. That could, in theory, drive demand for olive oil further, though reception has so far been mixed on the coffee-oil combo.

“After a few sips of each [drink], it felt like too much,” CNN reporter Danielle Wiener-Bronner wrote of a taste test. “Starbucks describes the drinks as lush and velvety, thanks to the oil. But to me they just started to feel weighed down.”

The bad timing couldn’t happen to a smugger bunch of smelly hippie socialists.