Woot! There’s another dogfight going on in New York State that shouldn’t be happening, and yet it is. Man, oh, MAN – this is delicious.

House Democrats’ top super PAC is making a last-minute buy to aid Rep. Joe Morelle, a New York Democrat in a deep-blue seat — the latest sign that the battle for the House is lurching toward the GOP.

Morelle, who was elected in 2018 to replace the late Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter, holds a Rochester-area district that backed President Joe Biden by 20 points in 2020. His Republican opponent, La’Ron Singletary, is a former Rochester police chief who has staked his campaign on rising crime rates in New York. House Majority PAC will go on air this week for Morelle with a $275,000 buy, according to data from the media tracking firm AdImpact.

Do you see how Politico framed that? Singletary has “STAKED HIS CAMPAIGN” on rising crime rates, and? Well, taking a stab in the dark and all, it looks like the voters of his district are liking the dice roll, Politico. If Democrats have to suddenly dump huge sums into a race in a formerly safe “deep blue” district, then something about Singletary’s message is resonating as loud as church bells. His pitch is pretty perfect:

“If you hired an electrician to fix an electrical issue in your home, and he burned your house down…would you hire him again?”

Republican @LaRonSingletary slams Democrat Joe Morelle and Biden over the rising crime, sky-high prices, and failing schools plaguing New Yorkers under Democrat control. #NY25 pic.twitter.com/oHZdEhh1KQ

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 29, 2022

And, once again, as in the story of so many of these GOP campaigns, the former Rochester police chief did it on a shoestring.

Democrats now playing defense in #NY25, a Biden +20 District. The incumbent Rep. Joe Morello (D) spent $800K While his opponent La’Ron Singletary (R) spent $160K

This comes as Dems fair of losing another 2 Biden +20 Districts, #PA12 & #CA26 https://t.co/Q53iVWSoX6

— Joel Weingart (@JoelWeingart_) October 31, 2022

Hot DAWG! The RCP congressional map has the NY25 district as “leans Dem,” so I can’t imagine what the Morelle internal polling is showing. It has to be horrendous.

Even NBC’s partisan cheerleader Chuck Todd of Meet the Press was talking about this race going south for Dems in an interview with a local Rochester affiliate on Friday.

Friday night starts the second to last weekend for campaigning before Election Day, and we are seeing competitive races like we haven’t seen in a long time. So, News10NBC wanted to get the insights of Chuck Todd from Meet the Press.

First, the race in the 25th Congressional District between Rep. Joe Morelle (D) and former RPD chief La’Ron Singletary (R).

Brean: “Chuck from where you sit, what do you think is going on in this congressional race?”

Chuck Todd, Meet the Press: “These New York congressional districts in particular are fascinating to me because they don’t contain a lot of swing voters even though they’re pretty evenly divided. You can almost see it in the closing messages where the republicans want to talk about the crime issue and democrats want to talk about abortion rights and democracy and so the only issue that has crossover appeal is the inflation issue.”

Brean: “So who are the candidates going after?”

Chuck Todd: “Look they’re looking to drive out their own turnout. I always say the undecided voter that both parties are looking for right now is the voter that hasn’t decided to show up.”

Thursday, the National Republican Campaign Committee bought ad time totaling $27,000 here at News10NBC to help Singletary. We can’t find evidence of the Republican Party spending that kind of money this close to an election in Rochester before not even in 2014 when Mark Assini nearly defeated Rep. Louise Slaughter. Todd says the money means the republicans think they can win this race.

“If republicans win control of Congress by a narrow margin, if this is not a wave elections, they’re going to win it in New York and Florida,” Todd said. “I’ve talked to republicans, even in the worst case scenario for them, where democratic turnout and republican turnout are even, they believe they’re going to win the House simply because they’re going to get three to five seats out of the state of New York alone. They need five to take over.”

Chief Singletary went for the crime jugular in his latest ad, too.

🚨NEW AD ALERT🚨

Rochester’s Crime Crisis!
Joe Morelle’s Crime Crisis!

Record Murders / Record Shootings

Career Politician Joe Morelle doesn’t care about your safety. He only cares about himself.

It’s time for Joe to go! Vote Nov 8

Join Us ➡️ https://t.co/knEIFcp4rG pic.twitter.com/dG3WTclmol

— La'Ron D. Singletary (@LaRonSingletary) October 20, 2022

Bob Lonsberry, radio host for Rochester’s NewsRadio WHAM 1180 had a pretty prescient piece on the race back in August. He noticed Morelle was spending money on attack ads against Singletary then, in the dead of summer, when nobody wastes campaign dollars. He asked himself, “What do those mean?”

Joe Morelle knows something you don’t.

He’s losing.

At least he’s afraid of losing.

And he should be. He has been out-campaigned this summer by La’Ron Singletary in a stunning fashion. Sure, Joe Morelle has incumbency and a dominating political machine, and more PAC and corporate money than you can shake a stick at.

…Let’s recap. Joe Morelle is advertising early, he’s attacking, and he’s trying to shore up support among voters who should be his core constituency.

That means La’Ron Singletary is threatening him across party lines. That means the 2-to-1 Democrat enrollment advantage isn’t – in the polling – paying off for Joe Morelle.

He’s running attack ads like a desperate politician because he is a desperate politician. His years of being Rochester’s political Goliath have come up against a David, and he knows it.

While, for his part, La’Ron Singletary is talking to people, not pollsters. And he’s talking about inflation and crime, the burden on our family budgets and the carnage on our city streets. Joe Morelle is worried about his career; La’Ron Singletary is fighting for his neighbors. One candidate is confident, and the other is frightened.

…Joe Morelle is running scared. He can’t match La’Ron Singletary’s character or talents, so he’s got to destroy his reputation, tear down the name his parents gave him and stain the reputation he’s built over a lifetime. La’Ron speaks for people who want a place at the table, and Morelle is doing everything he can to make sure they don’t get it.

Precisely what I’ve been writing about in every single one of these candidate profiles I’ve had such fun doing the past month or so. Republicans are doing the retail politics, the kitchen table, the “how can we make life better” face-to-face reaching out that means everything to people. And they truly have a dynamic campaigner in Lee Zeldin at the head of the New York ticket, who, as I’ve also repeated time and again, will be the tide that lifts all these fantastic new boats with him.

I had the pleasure of running into my old chief. I have always admired and respected @LaRon4Congress . He rose through the ranks to become a great chief and I implicitly trust him. I will be voting for him in hopes he can return some moderation into our upside down country. pic.twitter.com/CjqJM4Fkfl

— Brett A Sobieraski (@brettsobieraski) October 28, 2022

Oh, DAWG, this is exciting!