There has been such gruesome poll news in the past few days for Democrats, you would think someone, somewhere in their party would suddenly jerk awake and call a time-out/regroup/refocus before they completely blow it. Casually glancing over the political landscape…I don’t believe they are capable of that introspection, which is good news for us. Lemme do a quick look-see and give you an idea of how and where they’re stepping on themselves.

In Virginia VA-10 retired Navy Captain Hung Cao’s contest against Democratic incumbent Jennifer Wexton has just been moved from “likely Dem” to “LEANS Dem.” That’s YUGE.

Besides the fact that Hung Cao is a whale of a retail politician in a heavily D district, he had an assist from VA state delegate Elizabeth Guzman (D) who announced a bill codifying parents as child abusers for not “affirming” their child’s sexual orientation or “gender identity.” Unlike previous iterations of the party, VA Republicans pounced – on both the messenger and those who supported her and often used her as their surrogate. One of those furiously trying to backpedal was Rep Wexton.

Jennifer Wexton told @7NewsDC that Guzman's bill to charge parents with a felony doesn't say anything about affirming gender identity, but that’s been proven wrong. VA Democrats know their cover's blown, and now they're trying to cover it up. #VA10 pic.twitter.com/RAO8IzhJjV

— Hung Cao (@HungCaoCongress) October 19, 2022

Guess the voters and pissed-off parents in VA-10 aren’t buying it. When I covered the furious blowback to the proposed legislation only last week, the district was rated solid “likely blue.” The other district in serious contention for Republicans – VA-07 – has Yesli Vega running against incumbant Abigail Spanberger, who, when word broke of the bill, backed out of their debate. It’s a solid toss-up.

VIrginia Democrats claimed @guzman4virginia didn’t criminalize parents for not affirming a child’s “gender identity” – despite Guzman clearly saying so on camera.@7NewsDC now reports that a woman working on the bill with Guzman made it just as clear on a recent podcast. /1 pic.twitter.com/OCTEGAIlWv

— Ian Prior (@iandprior) October 17, 2022

In the New York governor’s race, Lee Zeldin has sliced into interim Governor Kathy Hochul’s at one time 24 pt lead like a hot knife through butter. What’s he used? Just what’s happening on the streets of New York thanks to their atrocious bail reform act. The governor has repeatedly said she’ll take a “look at the data,” won’t call a special session to deal with the crime wave and suggests judges take a couple classes because they obviously don’t understand how the law works. Yeah. How’s that going for her?

More blue state woes for Dems: if Hochul's (D) lead is anywhere in this range (4-11%), Zeldin (R) is likely leading in every battleground House district – and there are seven of them. https://t.co/DdpLFOvJgy

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 18, 2022

They’re especially excited in NY about Zeldin’s rise because, even if he falls short (and with that corrupt political machine, right?), he is energizing the heck out of GOP and independent voters, and will pull the down-ticket candidates up with him, maybe even over the top in their districts. There are a few that could really help out. In the new NY-22, GOP candidate Brandon Williams is talking $5 gal gasoline and kitchen table economics, while his Dem challenger is low energy, COVID blaming, and reproductive rights. It’s gone from toss-up to leans GOP. There are 5 districts left in the Empire State that are now considered toss-ups that Zeldin’s coattails should help with. Crime and kitchen table. Stick to it.

…“We’ve consistently been gaining massive ground on Hochul as New Yorkers witness first hand her abysmal record on the issues more important to them — crime, the economy, corruption and more,” Zeldin crowed Tuesday after a Quinnipiac Poll showed him just 4 points behind Hochul, who had a 50% to 46% lead overall among likely voters.

The survey – which found crime and inflation were the top two issues for voters – is one of several in recent days highlighting how far Hochul has fallen.

In what’s been termed the “most boring” senate race, but also crucial for the GOP, the Cheri Beasley (D) vs Ted Budd (R) contest in North Carolina (replacing retiring GOP Senator Richard Burr) is an RCP GOP hold, but many of the polls are within the margin of error. Beasley is a former Chief Justice of the N.C. Supreme Court, and they are hammering her relentlessly and effectively on “soft on crime” decisions made while in that capacity. So much so that local stations are working their “fact checkers” overtime to parse the ads, and coming up with predominantly “mostly trues,” hard as they try to debunk them. Ms Beasley is also running on abortion and…growing pot. Helps the farmers, doncha know.

…For her part, Beasley said, “I support legalizing cannabis.”

“There’s a real opportunity for our farmers to diversify their crops,” she added.

Wildwood flowers grew wild on the farm, and we never know’d what it was called. ~ Jim Stafford

In Washington State, of all places, Sen Patty Murray (D) is suddenly in a dogfight with a young Republican named Tiffany Smiley. The WaPo was concerned enough about the race 5 days ago that they threw their version of a warning flag.

Murray has pushed abortion to the forefront with attack ads and Smiley just released this level-headed response.

“30 years in Washington with nothing to show for it.” Perhaps Murray should take a step back and see what is really concerning to her constituents. I can’t imagine it’s very different from the rest of the country at the moment.

Abortion hovers around 7th on the “what I’m worried about” list. Might move up a notch or two given Washington’s liberal bent, but over crime and the soaring cost of living? Not seeing it. And even lefty Larry Sabato says the Dems aren’t riding to the rescue for Murray as they have in the past (Of course, they are a little busy putting out fires all over the country…).

…While we remain skeptical Washington will actually flip — if Seattle’s King County votes 72% Democratic, as it did in the primary, that should be a good enough cushion for Murray — we think this race may still belong at the very edge of the playing board. In 2010, when she faced a truly competitive race, national Democrats pulled out all the stops for Murray: the party’s heaviest guns, such as then-President Obama and former President Bill Clinton, made trips up to the Pacific Northwest for her. We haven’t seen that type of engagement there this cycle, although Murray is trying to nationalize the race by hitting Smiley as too conservative on abortion rights. We are moving Washington back to Likely Democratic.

Again, with the focus on abortion rights.

Three districts in Oregon (OREGON!) just keep moving further and further out of the Dem’s safety zone, into toss-ups.

I profiled the GOP candidate in OR-05 a bit ago. A businesswoman and small-town mayor, hitting the streets and driving the massive district. Nothing about abortion, plenty about inflation, over-regulation of businesses, and the price of energy. Not so much with her opponent, the married lesbian progressive who can’t say the “prog” word, and uses her wife’s awful, near-fatal ectopic pregnancy as a weapon against pro-lifers.

Read the room? They’re not so much into that, not for love nor money.

And that’s alright.