fivethirtyeight

Nate Silver: Republicans now favored to win the Senate

John Sexton 4:00 PM | November 02, 2022

Nate Silver: Senate control looks like an even bet to me

John Sexton 7:20 PM | October 21, 2022

If the polls this year are as bad as they were in 2020, Republicans are favored to win the Senate

Allahpundit 1:31 PM | August 30, 2022

Er, don't panic but the generic ballot is now tied

Allahpundit 6:41 PM | August 04, 2022

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Two new forecasts: Democrats favored to hold the Senate?

Allahpundit 8:01 PM | July 27, 2022

Wait, is Biden's job approval rebounding (a little)?

Allahpundit 6:41 PM | December 16, 2021

Cratering: New poll puts Biden approval below 40%

Ed Morrissey 12:01 PM | October 20, 2021

Here's the thing of the day: The obligatory "Tapper and every other sentient being school Joy Reid on meaning of 538" post

Ed Morrissey 11:15 AM | November 10, 2020

Just 43% of young black voters trust congressional Dems to do what's best for black people

Allahpundit 10:41 PM | September 23, 2020

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FiveThirtyEight: You'd better believe Trump can win Minnesota

Ed Morrissey 10:01 AM | September 01, 2020

FiveThirtyEight debuts election forecast: Trump has the same chance of winning now as he did in November 2016

Allahpundit 11:31 AM | August 12, 2020

Nate Silver: Yes, Trump can still win this race

Allahpundit 3:31 PM | July 26, 2020

FiveThirtyEight: What gives with Trump's approval-ratings boost?

Ed Morrissey 6:01 PM | April 01, 2020

Experts polled two weeks ago badly underestimated how many U.S. coronavirus infections there would be now

Allahpundit 4:01 PM | March 31, 2020

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Biden now a 99% favorite to win the Democratic nomination

Allahpundit 3:31 PM | March 10, 2020

Bernie now projected to have an all but insurmountable delegate lead after Super Tuesday

Allahpundit 1:31 PM | February 19, 2020

Guess who Stacey Abrams predicts to win the 2040 election?

Karen Townsend 11:01 AM | February 02, 2020

Two new polls: Solid majorities support calling new witnesses at Trump's impeachment trial

Allahpundit 7:21 PM | January 03, 2020

NBC poll: Dead heat on impeachment as party-line trenches harden

Ed Morrissey 10:01 AM | October 25, 2019

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Trump: The fact that only 25% want me impeached is pretty good given the scope of this witch hunt; Update: 51% want removal, says ... Fox News

Allahpundit 7:31 PM | October 09, 2019

Trump's average approval rating reaches highest point since February 2017

Allahpundit 10:41 PM | May 13, 2019

Gallup: Trump's job approval bounces back to 44% after decline during shutdown

Allahpundit 5:31 PM | February 13, 2019

Forecast: GOP now more likely to have *at least* 54 Senate seats next year than to lose its majority

Allahpundit 10:01 PM | October 17, 2018

Statistician: After researching gun violence, I no longer believe in gun control

Allahpundit 10:41 PM | October 03, 2017

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Reuters: Battleground states have suddenly tightened up

Ed Morrissey 2:01 PM | November 04, 2016

Nate Silver ponders how he got Trump so wrong

Jazz Shaw 4:01 PM | May 18, 2016

Chart of the day: Why Christie's probably going nowhere in the primaries

Allahpundit 8:01 PM | January 26, 2015

Uh oh: 60% of Intel employees who donated in Prop 8 debate supported banning gay marriage

Allahpundit 6:01 PM | April 04, 2014