Is the Ebola outbreak receding?

In Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, the outbreak of Ebola which has raged since the early spring continues to spread and claim lives.

According to a World Health Organization situation report released on October 17, there are a total of 9,191 probable, confirmed, or suspected cases of Ebola worldwide and 4,546 confirmed deaths from the disease. But new hope is emerging that the disease can be stopped in West Africa, which would make its spread to other parts of the world unlikely.

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Last week, the nation of Senegal’s single case of Ebola was successfully isolated and no new cases were discovered, prompting the WHO to declare the country Ebola-free. On Monday, the massive West African country of Nigeria joined the ranks of formerly Ebola-plagued nations.

“For WHO to declare an Ebola outbreak over, a country must pass 42 days with active surveillance in place, supported by good diagnostic capacity, and with no new cases detected, the agency said,” read a report via CNN. “The 42-day period is also twice the maximum incubation period fr [sic] Ebola.”

Nigeria’s success story is a significant one. At one point, a total of 19 people had contracted the deadly hemorrhagic fever. In July, the disease spread to Lagos, a city of 5 million, but with a limited ability to cope with a significant outbreak.

“This is a spectacular success story that shows that Ebola can be contained,” a WHO representative said on Monday. “Such a story can help the many other developing countries that are deeply worried by the prospect of an imported Ebola case.”

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The key to Nigeria’s success was that every probable or suspected case of infection was contacted and monitored throughout the 21-day incubation period, and those few who tried to evade monitoring were tracked down by Nigerian authorities. That has not been the case in the three West African nations where Ebola still continues to infect new patients.

Africa is not the only front in the fight against Ebola where there is good news. In Spain, a nurse who sparked a global fear after becoming the first patient to contract the disease outside of Africa was declared Ebola-free over the weekend. Two other patients at the hospital where the nurse was receiving care being monitored for infection were also determined by health officials to not be carriers of the virus.

There was even more good news on Monday out of Dallas, where the first Ebola patient to die in the United States lost his fight with the disease. Today marks the end of the three-week monitoring period, and the 48 people who had contact with Thomas Eric Duncan before he died are going to be taken off monitoring. It seems likely at this stage that, though he came in contact with over 100 people in the United States after displaying Ebola symptoms, Duncan only spread the disease to two of the health care workers who were caring for him directly.

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Even with this spate of good news for those concerned about the spread of Ebola internationally, anxiety remains high. These combined reports create the unmistakable impression that, while this deadly strain of Ebola is difficult to contain, it can be managed. Is the worst of the outbreak over?

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