Oh great: Pelosi wants to stay until Democrats win back the majority

Hey, when you live in a safe district in California, you can stay as long as you like in Congress. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi made that clear earlier this week in a press conference, where she discussed a host of issues, but the takeaway was her strategy to retake the House of Representatives by 2016.

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It’s no secret that Democrats want to retake the House; it was prevalent at Netroots Nation this past summer. Yet, liberals know that the winning back the House this year is not a possibility, as Republicans will probably increase their majority.

Many on the left blame gerrymandering for the composition of Congress, but it’s a widely overstated hypothesis. So, what’s the eager would-be Speaker of the House looking towards as part of her strategy to usher in a new House Democratic majority? Well, it’s Hillary, of course.

In the end, it will be how Republicans do in their congressional races; they’re expected to do well, with Stuart Rothenberg of Roll Call saying that “gains in the double digits” are possible. If that’s the case, Pelosi’s dream of becoming Speaker of the House again is probably out of reach for quite some time (via WaPo):

Smart strategists for House Democrats have long acknowledged winning the majority in a six-year-itch midterm would be difficult, but the silver lining has always been the effort to keep the margin as close as possible in the belief that a presidential-level turnout — with the possibility of another history-making nominee for Democrats — could provide the tail wind needed to seize the majority in 2016.

She also gave her most emphatic statement yet that she intends to stick around at least through 2016, knocking aside earlier than previous years the whispers that she might retire after another election. “I am staying on for two more years. I’m running for re-election,” she said.

Pelosi did not specifically say whether she would stay on as minority leader, but it’s impossible to think she would leave her leadership post and return to the rank-and-file after eight years as minority leader and four more as speaker.

So there is less speculation about Pelosi’s future in the runup to this election than there’s been in campaign cycles past. Most people think she’s staying around for the chance at winning the majority in 2016 and possibly going out on her own terms as speaker again, advancing the agenda of a female Democratic president.

This could all change, particularly if Republicans gain a large number of seats on Nov. 4 and the majority appears completely out of reach for years to come. A few hours after Pelosi’s press conference Stuart Rothenberg, founder of the Rothenberg Political Report, upped his prediction to say that Democrats stood no chance of a net gain in seats and Republican “gains in the double digits certainly are possible.”

Such a result would hand House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) a majority with 245 to 250 seats, making 2016 an even steeper mountain for Pelosi’s Democrats to climb: they’d need something in the range of 25 to 30 seats to win the majority on the possible coattails of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

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So, it’s been a while, and it will probably be a while.

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