There could be some good news coming out of Kentucky for Republicans next Tuesday. It’s election day and the Republican candidate for governor is one point up in the latest poll over the popular incumbent Democrat running for re-election.

Republican Daniel Cameron is now in a dead heat with Democrat Andy Beshear. Holy moly, who would have thought this might happen? Andy Beshear is the only statewide elected Democrat in Kentucky. He was the state’s attorney general before he ran for governor. Daniel Cameron is the current attorney general.

Back in January, I wrote that this was a race to watch. Trump endorsed Cameron during the Republican primary, though Kelly Craft, Trump’s former U.N. Ambassador, was running, too. (Reminder: Trump’s loyalty demands only go one way.) Beshear has been a very popular governor, one of the ten most popular governors in the country, and is popular with many Republicans in the state. One reason for that is because of how well he handles emergencies in the state, like natural disasters. He did receive plenty of blowback for how he handled the pandemic, though. He was quick to put pandemic mandates in place.

Beshear was in good shape throughout the race, well ahead of Cameron. However, in the last few weeks, Cameron’s campaign has caught fire. Cameron, a black Republican, is frequently attacked by black Democrats with the usual racist slurs. A Soros-aligned group has released racist ads in the state against Cameron. One ad claims “all skinfolk ain’t kinfolk.” It is a black-led PAC that runs that ad. Looks like the Democrats went too far and it is backfiring.

Another issue is Biden’s unpopularity. Beshear has a 60% statewide approval rate and 43% approval among Republicans. Joe Biden has a 22% approval rate in Kentucky. Cameron’s campaign needs to tie Beshear to Joe Biden for maximum effect.

The latest poll listed on the Real Clear Politics aggregate is one from Emerson. It is from 10/30 to 11/2. Cameron is at 49% and Beshear is at 48%. So, in the days leading up to the election, Cameron is up by 1 point. This race is neck and neck. You love to see it. This race may turn out to be a bellwether for things to come for Republicans against Democrats in the 2024 races.

📍- Daviess County with @MakenzeCameron!

Final day of the Fight for Kentucky Bus Tour begins! pic.twitter.com/SXlF0xZjMi

— Daniel Cameron (@DanielCameronAG) November 4, 2023

The Republican Governor’s Association is helping him.

TODAY is the last day for Early Voting in Kentucky!

Go vote for @DanielCameronAG for Governor & flip Kentucky RED!

Find your polling place here: https://t.co/A4eTUnqC0R pic.twitter.com/cXcwc38CZC

— The RGA (@GOPGovs) November 4, 2023

Senator Rand Paul and his wife Kelley voted Friday.

.@KelleyAshbyPaul and I just voted to elect a Governor who respects the Constitution and will stand up for the rights of Kentuckians. Get out and vote for @DanielCameronAG, KY! pic.twitter.com/pOQaS9Ouof

— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) November 3, 2023

This would be Beshear’s second term. He narrowly won his first term. The last poll by Emerson was released on October 6 and Beshear was 16 points ahead of Cameron.

Beshear, the son of former two-term Gov. Steve Beshear, is one of four Democratic governors leading a state Trump carried twice in his campaigns for president. That number will drop to three when Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards leaves office in January.

Kentucky elected Democratic governors for most of the 20th century and has had only two Republican governors in the last 50 years. But the state has nonetheless become increasingly conservative during that time, voting Republican in nine of the last 11 presidential elections and electing only Republicans to the U.S. Senate since 1998.

Despite Kentucky’s rightward shift, Beshear is a formidable candidate. He has had an overwhelming financial advantage throughout the campaign, outspending Cameron $16.7 million to $3.4 million as of Oct. 23.

Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball pointed to Beshear’s lead in the previous poll to his ability to separate himself from Biden. Trump beat Biden in Kentucky in 2020 by about 26 points. Now, Cameron seems to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported Trump in the 2020 election. Cameron has seen a 25-point increase in support from Trump voters in a month’s time.

Undecided voters who took part in the new poll gave a slight edge to Cameron, who had 49% support compared to Beshear’s 48%.

Last days campaigning by the candidates shows them appearing with people who may help draw audiences. Beshear appeared with a rapper at the University of Louisville.

Beshear’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The governor, who voted Thursday in Frankfort and spoke at a rally later that morning alongside rap superstar Jack Harlow at the University of Louisville, had five campaign stops scheduled Friday to encourage supporters to head to the polls.

Cameron chose two people who appeal to conservative voters, especially women voters.

Cameron’s “Fight for Kentucky Bus Tour” had six stops scheduled Friday. He’s campaigned in recent days alongside well-known Republican figures including anti-transgender activist Riley Gaines and Sarah Huckabee Sanders, governor of Arkansas and Trump’s former press secretary.

Trump re-enforced his earlier endorsement by releasing a video this week encouraging voters to go vote for Cameron on Election Day.

This is a race to watch on Tuesday night. It could be very good news for Republicans going into 2024.