We are five weeks out from the first Republican primary debate. For the next five weeks, there will be endless speculation about whether or not Donald Trump will show up. The other Republican candidates will be there, including Trump’s strongest challenger, Ron DeSantis.

Look for Trump to hold out until the eleventh hour. We’ve seen this show before. He did similar things in 2015. He refused to sign the loyalty pledge that the RNC presents to candidates. They pledge to support whoever the Republican nominee turns out to be. This time around, it is candidate Will Hurd who is refusing to sign the loyalty pledge because he won’t support Trump, no matter what.

If Trump doesn’t show up for the debate, look for him to host his own event to counter the debate. He did that in 2015, too. He has no new plays in the playbook this year. It’s all what we’ve seen before and that is why many Trump supporters are beginning to look at other candidates. Why would the Republican Party nominate the same candidate they nominated in 2016, and then as an incumbent in 2020? He lost last time. There is no indication he would win in 2024. Voters do not want a re-match between Biden and Trump.

“He’s a liar and a coward.” Those are the words of Chris Christie, a longtime Trump friend and currently a challenger in the GOP primary. Trump spoke at Turning Point Action’s event this weekend. In his speech he spoke about his indictments and did as he has done before, he gaslighted the crowd. He’s indicted for them, you see, it isn’t about him. He’s standing up for them. “Better me than you, right?” That is what he told them and they clapped like performing seals. Never mind that the criminal indictments are about how he handled classified documents, something that no one in that audience would have anything to do with. The indictment in Manhattan is about business fraud, also having nothing to do with his supporters. The only possible time he might say he’s being indicted for his supporters is maybe over the grand jury investigation in Georgia over the phone call he placed to ask election officials to “find” 11,000 + votes so he could win Georgia in 2020. So, now Christie calls Trump out for his rhetoric in his speeches. That case has not gotten to the issuing of indictments stage yet.

Christie is delusional in that he thinks he will single-handedly stop Trump’s path to the GOP’s primary nomination. Nonetheless, he is trying to do that and is concentrating on New Hampshire where he is gaining a bit of traction, though Trump remains popular there. A Super Pac that is supporting Christie, Tell It Like It Is PAC, will come out with a new campaign ad on Monday against Trump. It calls Trump a chicken if he doesn’t show up to debate his challengers. It asks a question – “Are you a chicken or just a loser?” Christie made the rounds on some Sunday morning political shows. Jake Tapper played the ad for Christie on his show, State of the Union on CNN. Tapper just happened to have it to play for Christie. How convenient, right? Anyway, Christie said he had not seen the ad but thought it was right. He said Trump is a coward. He doesn’t think, though, that his ego will allow him to stay away from the debate.

On the other hand, former Senator Roy Blunt was a panelist on ABC’s This Week: “I’d be surprised if President Trump shows up at the debate,” he said. He said Trump thinks he doesn’t have to participate in the debates because he has a comfortable lead in polls now. That’s true. Trump has said as much. He thinks he is owed the nomination and hasn’t really campaigned for it. His campaign, if this is it, has been lackluster. He still gets big crowds but he got big crowds last time, too, even during the pandemic, and he lost anyway.

So, here we are, just as Trump wants it. The talk is whether or not he’ll show up for the first debate. Will primary voters be ready to start settling down after summer vacations and start to focus on the 2024 election on August 23? It’s usually after Labor Day before voters start to focus on primary races. We’ll see how well-watched the debate is and whether or not it moves the poll numbers for the candidates, including Trump. Until then, it’s a whole lot of name-calling and not enough talking about policies and what primary voters are interested in hearing from the candidates.