Tucker Carlson will host a Republican forum with 2024 presidential candidates in Iowa on July 14. The event will include onstage interviews with six candidates at the Family Leadership Summit. Well-known Iowa political activist and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats organized the event.

Guess who isn’t coming? Donald Trump. He-who-expects-a-coronation declined an invitation to participate. That’s kind of odd, even for Trump, isn’t it? Tucker and Trump have a friendship. Iowa is the first state in the primary schedule, with its caucus date set for January 15, 2024. Vander Plaats tweeted today that he only learned that Trump will not participate last night. That’s cutting it close for an event scheduled for Friday.

I learned last night that @realDonaldTrump will NOT attend our Leadership Summit this Friday. Thus, our lineup is set: @votetimscott @AsaHutchinson @Mike_Pence @NikkiHaley @VivekGRamaswamy and @RonDeSantis will have visionary, one on one, discussion with @TuckerCarlson #FLS23…

— Bob Vander Plaats (@bobvanderplaats) July 11, 2023

i wonder if Trump’s refusal has anything to do with his competition for Governor Kim Reynolds’ support. There have been articles lately that claim Reynolds favors DeSantis, though she said she will remain neutral during the primary. She has, however, attended events with DeSantis when he campaigns in Iowa and she attended the event when Casey DeSantis launched Mamas for DeSantis.

Reynolds and DeSantis have developed a friendship as governors of conservative states. Reynolds has gained cred for her firm stances on pushing back on government mandates during the pandemic, for example. She is very popular in Iowa, having won re-election with 95 of the state’s 99 counties and a near 90% approval rating with Republicans. Her name has been mentioned as a potential vice president.

However, Trump is lashing out at Reynolds on Truth Social today, claiming he is responsible for her win in 2018. He has made that comment before, most recently at a rally in Iowa last month, and it irks the governor. Trump is attacking her for remaining neutral. It is standard procedure for Republican elected officials, like governors, to remain neutral in a contested primary. Trump, of course, expects loyalty and that isn’t flying with Governor Reynolds.

It is difficult to gauge how the candidates are doing in Iowa as there isn’t much in the way of solid polling going on right now. All of the candidates claim the race is wide open and it may be. Probably, though, Trump is the frontrunner as he is in other states, according to polls. If the polls hold up and prove correct is another question. At this point in past elections, Jeb! Bush was the favored winner and so was Rudy Giuliani. Things can change quickly during a primary race. Trump is comfortably ahead in polls but that can change as we get closer to the primaries. We’ll know more after the first couple of debates, too. Voters will find it helpful to see them onstage and see how they handle the pressure.

It seems to me that an event with Tucker is a no-brainer for any Republican running for president. He is very popular and is generally viewed as a fair interviewer. He does hang out with Trump on occasion, though, so why is Trump a hold-out for Friday’s event? What’s he afraid of? His refusal to do the event is setting tongues wagging that he doesn’t want to be on a stage with DeSantis. If this event is like past interview-style events, though, that would not be a problem.

As it is, on July 28, both Trump and DeSantis will attend the Iowa Republican Lincoln Dinner. Both of them will be in the same room for the first time in the campaign. DeSantis has had great success with Lincoln Dinners in various states. In Texas, he set records in fundraising with the Dallas County GOP’s Lincoln-Reagan Dinner and the same with Harris County (Houston). Both dinners raised $1M each, more than any dinners in the past, with DeSantis the featured speaker at each event. Trump may still be popular in Texas but DeSantis has a big following, too.

All of this is to say that it is way too early to count DeSantis out. Or, maybe the rise of another candidate. Trump winning the nomination, though it looks daunting now, is by no means a certainty.

Will Trump’s pettiness bother the large evangelical voting bloc in Iowa? Are they ready for a change? We don’t know yet. His most loyal supporters will remain with him, no matter what, as they have proven over and over again. We’ll know soon if DeSantis can begin to slow Trump’s path to the nomination. The truth is that if Trump wins the Iowa caucus in January, the race is essentially over. If he loses, the opposite is true. He knows that. It’s interesting that he is taking the passive way out and avoiding the Friday event with his friend, Tucker.