Senators Mitch McConnell and Steve Daines have the 2024 elections in focus. McConnell told CNN’s Manu Raju that he is trying hard not to “screw up” the 2024 elections as the 2022 elections were screwed up. Specifically, candidate recruitment takes priority. The GOP has a good shot at taking back the majority in 2024 if all goes well. We know from experience, though, that Republicans have a real talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Senate Minority Leader and the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) have one goal – to win. They are focusing on four states with vulnerable Democrat incumbents – West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana. Daines represents Montana so perhaps he will find success in firing Democrat Senator Jon Tester. There are 23 seats held by Democrats in play, compared to 11 seats held by Republicans. There are likely only two Republican incumbent seats that Democrats will try to flip but both of those are in friendly red states. Three Democrats represent states that Trump won in 2020. All of that is good news for Republicans.

McConnell had problems working with the previous NRSC chairman, Senator Rick Scott of Florida. They often seemed to be unable to remain on the same page. That shouldn’t be a problem this time around. McConnell and Daines are putting on a united front. Republicans win with unity, not party in-fighting. How badly do we want to win? McConnell may not be your favorite person but he’s a hell of a lot better than Chuck Schumer. That’s the choice in 2024. Which senate leader do you want, Republican voters?

Is McConnell confident that the Republicans can flip the Senate? No. No, he is not.

But in an exclusive interview with CNN, McConnell made clear he knows full well that things can quickly go south. So he’s been working behind the scenes for months to find his preferred candidates in key races – including during his recent recovery from a concussion and a broken rib – in an attempt to prevent a repeat of 2022: When a highly favorable GOP landscape turned into a Republican collapse at the polls and a 51-49 Senate Democratic majority.

“No, no – I’m not,” McConnell said with a chuckle when asked if he were confident they’d take back the majority next year. “I just spent 10 minutes explaining to you how we could screw this up, and we’re working very hard to not let that happen. Let’s put it that way.”

There are two states still under assessment, both swing states with Democrat incumbents. Republicans are searching for a top-tier candidate to run in Wisconsin and Nevada, McConnell expects to wait until after next year’s primary to decide if investing resources there is a wise move.

Then there is Arizona. Arizona is the problem child of the 2024 cycle. It is complicated by Senator Sinema’s switch to being an Independent but continuing to caucus with Democrats. McConnell is realistic that she will not join with Republicans, which is good because she recently confirmed that she will not be joining the Republican Party, despite recruitment efforts. She isn’t that independent.

And in what is emerging as the most complicated state of the cycle – Arizona – McConnell said there’s a “high likelihood” that Republican leaders would wait and see first who wins the GOP primary next year before deciding whether to engage there at all. Plus he doesn’t see any chance that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema – who became an independent and left the Democratic Party last December but is still weighing a reelection bid – will join his conference.

“I think that decision was made when she ended up continuing to caucus with the Democrats,” McConnell said when asked if trying to get Sinema to flip to the GOP was a live discussion. “We would love to have had her, but we didn’t land her.”

McConnell noted how difficult it is to beat an incumbent. No incumbents lost in the 2022 elections. That is why candidate recruitment is so crucial to success. Georgia, Arizona, and New Hampshire losses were all due to candidate recruitment. Much of that blame is on Rick Scott for his decision to stay out of primary elections and let voters decide the candidates by themselves. As it turned out, Trump didn’t sit the primaries out and recruited and endorsed some candidates with little chance of victory.

“I think it’s important to go into this cycle understanding once again how hard it is to beat the incumbents, no incumbent lost last year,” McConnell told CNN on Friday. “Having said that, if you were looking for a good map, this is a good map.”

But he later added: “We do have the possibility of screwing this up and that gets back to candidate recruitment. I think that we lost Georgia, Arizona, and New Hampshire because we didn’t have competitive candidates (last cycle). And Steve Daines and I are in the same place – that starts with candidate quality.”

Daines has already endorsed Trump for president in 2024. I think it is too early for him to do that but he didn’t ask me. Both Daines and McConnell think that Trump can help candidates win in targeted states. “Whether you are a Trump fan or a Trump opponent, I can’t imagine Trump if he’s the nominee not doing well in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio,” McConnell said.

McConnell and Daines hope to recruit David McCormick, the hedge fund executive who barely lost his primary last cycle to Mehmet Oz, to run in Pennsylvania. Democrat Senator Bob Casey is running for re-election. That would be a good move. A damaged Democrat, John Fetterman, beat out Trump’s candidate, Dr. Oz. What a disaster that race turned out to be.

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is running for re-election. Several potential Republican challengers look good but that is not the case in Montana and West Virginia.

Rep. Matt Rosendale is a member of the House Freedom Caucus. He ran against Democrat Jon Tester in 2018 and is thinking about running against him again. Senate Republican leaders are looking at others, though, to take on Tester. Perhaps Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen or businessman Tim Sheehy.

In West Virginia, McConnell recruited Governor Jim Justice. Rep. Alex Mooney is challenging Justice, though. Mooney is backed by Club for Growth.“What we do know about West Virginia is it’s very, very red, and we have an extremely popular incumbent governor who’s announced for the Senate. And we’re going to go all out to win it,” McConnell said.

All we can do now is wait to see how the primaries play out. There is plenty of time for Republicans to botch it up again. Let’s hope maybe this time some lessons have been learned from past defeats. No one wants Lucy and the football again.