The Biden administration announced on Friday that the number of migrant encounters at the southern border in January was more than 156,000. That number is a sharp drop from the record 251,978 encounters in December, which was a new record. Biden claims his administration’s new border measures are working. Are they?

There was a traditional seasonal drop in numbers, that is true. January numbers are typically lower than in previous months. But, the January 2023 numbers are still higher than the January 2022 numbers. For comparison, there were 154,874 encounters in January 2022. Those numbers are much higher than the 78,414 encounters recorded in January 2021.

January 2023 is the first month in 10 months that the number of encounters was below 200,000. Any progress in reducing the number of migrant encounters at the southern border is welcome news but it’s premature for Joe Biden to be crowing about any level of success yet. It was his initial decision to eliminate the policies and agreements on his first day in office that were made by the previous administration that created the Biden border crisis in the first place. Since then he has remained hands-off and allowed the chaos to create a humanitarian and national security crisis at the southern border.

Two measures taken by the Biden administration are being touted as the reason for a drop in the number of migrant encounters. They were both introduced last month. The first is the expansion of the humanitarian parole program for Venezuelans which now includes Nicaraguans, Cubans, and Haitians. The program allows 30,000 to enter each month if they did not cross the border illegally, have a sponsor already in the United States, and met other conditions.

The second program is an expansion of Title 42 expulsions which includes those nationalities. The administration is working with Mexico to allow non-Mexican migrants to stay on the Mexican side of the border until their asylum claims can be processed. Sound familiar? That’s because it is very similar to the previous administration’s Remain in Mexico policy that Biden was hellbent to end at the beginning of his term in office. The administration is expected to introduce a rule that migrants are ineligible for asylum if they pass through another country without claiming asylum in that country. Migrants coming through Mexico, for example, and not claiming asylum in Mexico but waiting until they get to the United States would make them ineligible for asylum.

Biden began taking credit for the drop in apprehension numbers at his State of the Union address this week. CBP is playing wingman to his boasting and claiming the drop in numbers is due to Biden’s new programs. Gosh, just imagine if we had a president who understood that the measures already in place when he came into office were working and built on them instead of tossing them out and then ignoring the situation for two years.

CBP released a statement in agreement with Biden’s claims. He is their boss, you know.

“The January monthly operational update clearly illustrates that new border enforcement measures are working, with the lowest level of Border Patrol encounters between Ports of Entry since February of 2021,” CBP Acting Commissioner Troy Miller said in a statement. “Those trends have continued into February, with average encounters of Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans plummeting.”

There are objections from both the right and the left. Open border progressives criticize the expansion of Title 42, saying it is unjust and limits migrants’ ability to claim asylum. Those on the right include 20 Republican-led states that have sued the Biden administration over the parole program, claiming it breaches congressional limits on the use of parole. Parole is supposed to be used on a case-by-case basis for urgent humanitarian reasons or public benefit. The Biden administration is using a blanket parole system, not working case-by-case.

What has happened is that Biden is going to run for re-election and he is finally realizing that the chaos on the border is a real liability for him. The issue will be a prominent one in the 2024 presidential campaign from whichever Republican wins the nomination. Democrats are starting to speak out now, too, and that creates an awkward situation for Biden. Migrants being bussed and flown into sanctuary cities by border state governors create an uncomfortable spotlight in media coverage for the administration. That’s the point. The media coverage is supposed to get the attention of the administration to get them to do something about the Biden border crisis.

Brandon Judd, president of the National Border Patrol Council, said any progress made in curbing the numbers of migrants from those four countries will soon be erased when cartels begin to use migrants from other countries.

“So now all the cartels have to do is just go advertise services in other countries and replace the Nicaraguans, Cubans, Haitians, and Venezuelans with a different population. And they always adapt. They’re very good at adapting. If you do not enforce Title 42 across the board with every single country, we’re never going to get out of this rut. The cartels will just adapt to our policies,” he said.

Drug cartels and human traffickers won’t easily give up the lucrative businesses they have going on along the border, thanks to Joe Biden. They will adapt as the administration’s methods change. There are millions of dollars in profits at stake for them. Biden knows his recent changes will not solve all the problems. He called on Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform during his State of the Union address. Biden’s plan includes blanket amnesty for all illegal aliens in the United States, though, and that is a non-starter for Republicans. Conservatives must hold their ground and insist that Biden secure the southern border before anything else is done. Enforce the laws already on the books and secure the border before anything else happens.