It’s early. Very early. But that doesn’t stop the 2024 political predictions from coming. Cook Political Report is predicting that Senate Democrats will probably not defy political gravity in 2024 as they did in 2022. Democrats gained a Senate seat despite a very unpopular president and a weak economy. They will not be so lucky in 2024. *fingers crossed*

Democrats face an even worse map with red state or swing state Democrat incumbents that puts them on the defense. In 2024, there will be 23 Democrat senators up for reelection. Compare that number to the 11 Republicans up for reelection. One of those is a special election. Of those Democrat races, three are in states that voted comfortably for Trump in 2020. Ohio used to be considered a swing state but now is a solidly red state after Trump won the state by eight points in 2020. Two other states with Democrats up for reelection went solidly for Trump in 2022 – Montana (Trump +16) and West Virginia (+39).

Some Senate seats are in presidential battleground states, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

All that said, Cook Political Report labels three Senate races as toss-ups at this early stage. The races are Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, (I-AZ)., Sen. Joe Manchin, (D-WVA), and Sen. Sherrod Brown,( D-OH). So far, Brown is the only toss-up to announce a run for reelection in 2024. He is a three-term incumbent who has survived elections even as Ohio voters continue to move right. Cook Political Report sees it as tough-going for the three but the GOP seats are expected to remain red.

That sounds good for those of us who are Republican voters but I’ll take these calculations with a grain of salt. I’m old enough to remember being told about a red wave that was to wash across the country in the 2022 midterms. I was sorely disappointed when that didn’t come true, except in select spots like Florida and upstate New York.

Earlier today I wrote about Senator Sinema and her lack of early support from top Democrats in the Senate. Schumer, Durbin, and others don’t want to get too far out too early and choose her over the progressives looking to challenge her. One has already entered the race as a Democrat. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Phoenix-area congressman and retired Marine who served in Iraq made his announcement on Monday. Will Sinema run as an Independent, as her party affiliation is now or will she go back to being a Democrat on paper to run? Her status as an Independent is also encouraging some talk of Republican challengers, one of which is Kari Lake. We’ll have to wait and see how that all shakes out.

Joe Manchin is coy for now. He hasn’t officially decided if he’s running for reelection and he is being non-committal about his presidential ambitions. He’s going to try to parlay all this indecision into political leverage. There’s nothing new there. He acts like he’s independent-minded but he usually always folds and goes to Schumer and Biden’s side. He’s all hat and no cattle.

Voters in West Virginia are not thrilled with Manchin these days. People are not as stupid as Democrats thought when they named their climate change bill the Inflation Reduction Act. West Virginians saw right through it.

Manchin recently introduced the Democrats’ major spending package, the Inflation Reduction Act, alongside Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. According to a study by the University of Pennsylvania Penn Wharton, the bill will only reduce annual inflation by 0.1 percentage points over the next five years.

“West Virginians made it overwhelmingly clear they reject Joe Biden and his far-left agenda, but Joe Manchin sold them out when he led the way on Biden’s anti-coal, green energy boondoggle,” the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesman Philip Letsou said in a statement regarding Manchin’s re-election chances. “Joe Manchin has a simple choice: retire now or get fired in 2024.”

Manchin was the sole Democratic senator on the vulnerable list of seats leaning toward a Republican flip. Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) made it onto the list, too. He likely will face challengers, certainly on the Republican side. Rep. Ryan Zinke and Matt Rosendale are two Republicans rumored to be considering trying to flip the seat.

As I said, it’s early. It’s fun, though, to watch as races take shape. I have a feeling the 2024 cycle is going to be a wild ride.