There are three governors’ races to watch his off-year election cycle. There are two with sitting Democrat governors, Louisiana and Kentucky. The third is Mississippi, with a Republican governor. Governor John Bel Edwards in Louisiana is term-limited so there will definitely be a new governor chosen in that state.

Kentucky

Going alphabetically, let’s start with Kentucky. Democrat Governor Andy Beshear is running for his second term. His first term was won by a very narrow margin – less than one percentage point in 2019 against former Governor Matt Bevin, a Republican. Trump won Kentucky by 25 points in 2020. The state has two Republican senators (McConnell and Rand Paul) but Governor Beshear is rated as one of the most popular governors in the country. He ranked number 9 out of the top 10. One reason is because of increasing approval from the state’s Republican voters. One reason for his popularity is his leadership shown during times of natural disasters. Whether it was the tornadoes in western Kentucky or the flooding earlier in 2022 that impacted those living in Appalachia, Beshear earned praise from voters in both parties. Republicans did criticize Beshear’s use of emergency powers during the pandemic when he issued mandates. Mostly the criticism over the mandates was for his lack of collaborating with other state officials and the Republican-controlled legislature.

There is a large primary field of challengers. Most are Republicans, with one Democrat challenger.

Among the Republicans seeking to challenge Beshear include state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, former Trump U.N. Ambassador Kelly Craft, state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles and State Auditor Mike Harmon. Cameron has already notched Trump’s endorsement for the office, though it’s unclear how influential it will be among Republican voters after many of Trump’s nominees struggled during the November midterms.

Former congressional candidate Geoff Young (D) is also running for the office.

The name Daniel Cameron may be familiar. He made news during the protests and riots in Louisville after the death of Breonna Taylor during a no-knock warrant bust. Women’s March co-founder Tamika Mallory, a Farrakhan supporting anti-Semite, called Kentucky’s attorney general a “sellout negro” during the 2021 Grammy awards ceremony. Marxists really don’t like conservative black Americans who think for themselves.

In early 2021, articles of impeachment were filed against both Governor Beshear and Attorney General Cameron. Clearly, neither impeachment was successfully executed.

Will an endorsement from Trump help Cameron’s chances in the Republican primary on May 16? That’s not clear. Trump had success with his picks for many Congressional races but in the gubernatorial races, not so much. A statewide candidate has to use different political skills than Congressional district candidates. They have to appeal to a wide audience, not just to the people living in their own communities. Kentucky usually goes for Republican presidential nominees but for governor, the state has only had seven Republican governors since 1900.

It’s still plenty early. I am not making any predictions in this race yet. Let’s wait a bit and see how everyone handles it. One candidate that is wasting no time, though, is Kelly Craft, Trump’s former U.N. Ambassador. Note that Trump chose to endorse Daniel Cameron over his former ambassador. She’s the first candidate to launch a television ad blitz. Her superpower is fundraising and she’s married to a billionaire coal magnate so she won’t have to worry about money in her campaign.

Five months out from the hotly-contested 2023 governor’s race, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft became the first of several 2023 candidates for governor of Kentucky to launch a television ad blitz. Craft’s campaign spent well over $100,000, with $62,000 going toward ads that will play during University of Kentucky games – when the men’s basketball team plays the University of Louisville and when the football team plays in the Music City Bowl – on a week of television from Dec. 27 to Jan. 3.

That marks the first major advertising buy in a crowded Republican field of six who have either secured a significant amount of campaign donations or are running professional campaigns. Craft raised an impressive amount of cash in less than a month on the trail, nearly $752,000 as of early October. Given Craft’s vast personal wealth, due to her marriage to billionaire coal magnate and philanthropist Joe Craft, she is very likely to have the monetary edge over her Republican primary opponents.

Though Craft is something of a political greenhorn, fundraising is not new territory for her. Craft served as a “bundler” in 2004 for former President George W. Bush, and in 2012, she and Joe Craft were the state co-chairs for the Mitt Romney presidential campaign. Joe Craft was a multi-million dollar donor to former president Donald Trump’s inaugural committee.

The pair are also prominent donors to University of Kentucky athletic programs, making frequent appearances with members of the football and basketball teams. Multiple training facilities for university athletics facilities bear Joe Craft’s name. On the day of Craft’s September announcement for governor, two prominent UK football coaches re-posted Craft’s announcement video on their Twitter accounts. Later that day, an athletics official texted senior department staff asking them to remind coaches and other staff of university policy barring employees from engaging in political activities.

Louisiana

The next governor’s race to look at is Louisiana. As I mentioned above, Governor John Bel Edwards is term-limited. So far only one Republican has jumped into this race, the current attorney general, Jeff Landry. However, one bit of potential spice to this race is the possibility that Senator John Kennedy will decide to run for governor. There is lots of talk of him doing so, even though he was just re-elected to the Senate. He said in November that he is considering it.

“Over the last year, Louisianans have asked me time and time again to come home to serve as governor during these difficult times. Becky and I love the people of Louisiana. We’ve always listened to them, so I am giving serious consideration to entering the governor’s race. I’ll be announcing my decision soon,” Kennedy, who was just reelected for a second term last month, said in a statement mid-November.

There are several other Republicans that could get into the race but they seem to be waiting for Kennedy to make a decision.

I look for the Republican candidate to win the gubernatorial race. That’s just my gut reaction, as a former longtime resident of Louisiana and student of the state’s politics. John Bel Edwards was elected because he is a pro-life moderate Democrat. He was the first Democrat elected in that office since 2003. He was not particularly popular with voters while in office, frequently with less than 50 percent approval. I guess we wait now to see if Senator Kennedy gets into the race. No Democrats have declared candidacy yet. Louisiana is always interesting because of its jungle primary system.

Mississippi

The last race is Mississippi. Governor Tate Reeves is seeking a second term in office. There are no Republican challengers yet but there is time – the Republican primary is not until August 8.

Reeves has had mixed reviews as governor, often falling into the category of a poorly rated governor with less than 50 percent approval. When the coronavirus pandemic began in 2020, he received mostly high marks from voters for his leadership but as time progressed, his approval rating began to wane. Also, though he has not been accused of any wrongdoing, he has been mixed up in a state welfare lawsuit. It’s an investigation into state welfare funds and the appropriation of the money. Other big names in Mississippi have been implicated, like former Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre, a Mississippi native.

All that said, I look for Reeves to be re-elected. He has a healthy war chest and he has the advantage of incumbency. Mississippi is a very red state and there is little reason to believe that the Democrats can pick up the seat.

Of all three races, Kentucky looks the most interesting. Stay tuned. I’ll keep an eye on them all.