The first and only debate between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz is happening Tuesday. Fetterman, a Democrat and the current Pennsylvania Lt. Governor, and Dr. Oz, his Republican challenger, will face off without a live audience. In an unusual twist, the Fetterman campaign is lowering expectations before the debates happens.

Fetterman, once expected to trounce Oz in the race to be Pennsylvania’s next senator, now runs as though he is the underdog. Since he suffered a serious stroke, his ability to serve in the Senate has been called into question. All polls still show Fetterman ahead of Oz, though only just barely. Common wisdom says that Oz can win the race if everything falls into place for him. The debate is a good point to begin to close out the campaign.

The Fetterman campaign was granted special perks in order for their candidate to participate. There will be no live audience and Fetterman will be allowed to use a monitor with closed caption in order to understand what is being said. Fetterman’s cognitive ability is dicey at best. The severity of his stroke is seen in the aftereffects. Fetterman struggles with speaking and often cannot find the right words. Oz, on the other hand, is articulate and has honed a television personality. He’s very comfortable speaking and answering questions.

Both candidates are painting the other as an extremist. I’m politically biased but I think it is far easier to paint Fetterman as extreme because he is. He’s a far-left progressive who would more accurately be labeled a Socialist than a Democrat. He’s a younger Bernie Sanders in a hoodie. A downside for Oz is that his unfavorable rating remains high. He is viewed 55% unfavorable, 38% favorable.

Early voting is underway in Pennsylvania. So far, 45% of mail-in ballots have been cast. November 1 is the last day to early vote in-person.

Heavy hitter Barack Obama is scheduled to campaign for Fetterman on November 5, as is Joe Biden. Why the Fetterman campaign is bringing Biden in at the last minute is beyond me. Biden is as unpopular in Pennsylvania as he is in the rest of the United States. His approval rating in Pennsylvania is in the 30s. Biden’s cognitive abilities aren’t any better than Fetterman’s. They will be quite the duo on a stage together. Good Lord.

I think this race is Oz’s to lose. The latest poll listed at Real Clear Politics is a CBS News/YouGov poll released today. That poll has Fetterman up by 2 points. We know that polls oversample Democrats so it’s always best to be skeptical. I think it’s good news for Oz and his chances for victory. The Real Clear Politics aggregated averaging has Fetterman up by only 1.3 points.

The Fetterman campaign released a memo to “interested parties” Monday on Twitter. The memo states that debates weren’t Fetterman’s “format” even before the stroke.

In a memo sent to reporters, the Fetterman campaign seeks to lower expectations for tomorrow’s debate with Oz: “We’ll admit — this isn’t John’s format … if we’re all being honest, Oz clearly comes into Tuesday night with a huge built-in advantage.” pic.twitter.com/21CCMGGvbI

— Holly Otterbein (@hollyotterbein) October 24, 2022

The Fetterman campaign hits Oz over his television show and some of the miracle cures he promoted but there is little else to hit him with. The polling shows that voters don’t seem to be too concerned over Fetterman’s criticism that Oz don’t really live in Pennsylvania. Oz delivers typical Republican philosophy on most issues. Fetterman is out of the mainstream in the Democrat Party, he’s just that extreme.

Fetterman’s campaign wrote in the memo that Oz will criticize Fetterman for “awkward pauses, missing some words, and mushing other words together,” while addressing the uniqueness of using closed caption in a debate. It is perfectly legitimate for Oz to address Fetterman’s health. Oz is a medical doctor. Voters have a right to know if a candidate can physically and mentally handle such a stressful job. The job requires long hours, travel, and voting on sometimes complex matters. It is legitimate to question Fetterman’s stamina and mental ability.

For months, Fetterman’s campaign used the Biden 2020 campaign strategy. They kept him at home, away from cameras and reporters. He rarely spoke to the press and his wife took over as his spokesperson. She definitely gives off Edith Wilson vibes. Even Joe Biden said it would be good to have Giselle in the Senate. Is she the candidate now? Apparently, she took a tour of Air Force One when Biden last campaigned for Fetterman. She posted a picture of herself and Biden, no picture of Fetterman, though.

Here to confirm the m&ms are absolutely a real thing (and in my to-go bag) 🥰❤️🇺🇸 #dreamer pic.twitter.com/z0fYmUAsDj

— Gisele Barreto Fetterman (@giselefetterman) October 20, 2022

As I said, Oz has the wind at his back at this point. The CBS poll mentioned above shows Oz is closing the deal. Fetterman is losing voter enthusiasm and that’s never good two weeks out from election day.

The CBS poll shows a few reasons for why Oz has closed a once significant gap on Fetterman. First, he appears to have rallied reluctant Republican voters to his side. Some 94% of Republicans now support Oz, up from 87% in September. And the three issues voters cited as most important — the economy, inflation, and crime — are all ones that Republicans believe play in their favor. Gun laws and abortion ranked fourth and fifth most important, but far behind the economic concerns.

The poll found that 30% of voters surveyed said they’re “very likely” to watch tonight’s debate, and 34% said “somewhat likely.” Majorities said they didn’t think it was important to hear about either Fetterman’s health or Oz’s residency.

The poll also found the campaign taking a political toll on Fetterman: 47% of his supporters said they were “very enthusiastic,” significantly down from 63% in CBS’s September survey.

Oz enthusiasm was even dimmer. Only 30% of his supporters are “very enthusiastic,” though that’s not a new development. He has long suffered from skepticism even from fellow Republicans.

This CBS News/YouGov poll surveyed 1,084 registered voters in Pennsylvania between Oct. 21-24. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.1 percentage points.

The poll used registered voters, not likely voters. At this point, it is really lazy to use registered voters, as the results are less reliable than with likely voters. Anyway, the debate will be interesting to watch. We’ll see if Fetterman is capable of making his case or if Oz walks away with a debate win.