A poll released Wednesday by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Georgia News Collaborative is good news for both the U.S. Senate candidate, Republican Herschel Walker, and the gubernatorial candidate, Republican incumbent Governor Brian Kemp. Hispanic voters favor Walker over Democrat incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock 47-41. Hispanic voters favor Democrat Stacey Abrams over Kemp by only one point. That total is Abrams 49 – Kemp 48.

In the Senate race, 11% of Hispanic voters indicate they’ll back Libertarian Chase Oliver. The poll’s margin of error of 5.6 percentage points. Both Republican and Democrat Parties are devoting more resources to Hispanic voters, a small but growing bloc of voters. Neither party can claim Hispanic voters as their own. It isn’t a big poll, only 309 participated, but it is of likely voters and the respondents all self-identify as Hispanic or Latino. It was conducted October 11-12 by UGA’s School of Public and International Affairs. The poll was conducted in English.

The crosstabs tell the story, as usual.

Statistical Calculations:
Governor: The difference between first-place candidate Abrams’ estimated vote share and Kemp’s estimated vote share, at 1.2, is not statistically significant. Among likely Hispanic voters, the Governor’s race is a statistical tie.

U.S. Senate: The difference between first-place candidate Walker’s estimated vote share and second- place candidate Warnock’s estimated vote share, at 6.3, is not statistically significant. In plain English, among likely Hispanic voters the U.S. Senate race is a dead heat.

Most of the category totals seem standard for a political contest except that in the gubernatorial race, Moderates favor Abrams over Kemp 80.6 to 18.4. That one surprised me a little. Of the all-important Independent voters, Kemp is up over Abrams 39.1- 34.8.

In the Senate race, Walker has almost twice the support Warnock has from male voters yet Warnock only edges out Walker with female voters by about 6 points. Warnock does better with both Moderates and Independents, which may be a red flag, though this is just one poll. Moderates choose Warnock over Walker 48.5 – 18.2. Independents choose Warnock over Walker 58.3 – 37.5. Those numbers aren’t good news for Walker if they hold.

As usual, Democrats were over-polled.

A poll is just a snapshot in time and that is as true now as ever. Pollsters continue to over-poll Democrats. Republicans don’t put much faith in pollsters and fairness in polling, with good reason. Polls have been so wrong for several election cycles, largely because of the political party discrepancy. Anyway, if you’re a political junkie like me, you may find the poll interesting. Since Republicans are making good inroads into the Hispanic vote in Texas, for example, it’s good to see these results in Georgia. We’ll see how it shakes out on November 8.