It’s possible that Republican candidate Joe O’Dea just might beat Democrat incumbent Senator Michael Bennet and flip the U.S. Senate. The Colorado senate race just may turn out to be a surprise sleeper race. Stranger things have happened.

Bennet has been in the Senate since 2009 so he has all the advantages of a long-time incumbent. He actually bucked the trend of most Democrats running away from Joe Biden and attended Biden’s event in Colorado last week. It is alleged that Bennet begged Biden to come to Colorado and use an executive order to do something Bennet has failed to be able to do since 2011.

During his visit, Biden used his executive powers to designate a World War II military training camp as a national monument, a project Bennet has pursued through legislation since taking office in 2011. The truth is that Team Biden was probably thrilled that a Democrat candidate wanted Sleepy Joe to come and say something supportive about a candidate. Biden stopped in Colorado on his tour of some Western states last week and designated a World War II military training camp as a national monument. Bennet’s project is now done.

A funny thing is happening in this race. It’s tightening. As of today, Real Clear Politics aggregated averaging has Bennet up by 7.7 points. O’Dea isn’t too far out of the margin of error. It’s tough but possible if everything aligns.

The money coming into the race at this point proves that Republicans not only think that O’Dea is campaigning smartly, but that O’Dea has a shot at a surprise victory — and Democrats are not confident that Bennet’s re-election is a sure thing. Senate Republicans’ top super PAC put $1.25M into the race about a week ago and outside Democrat groups put $9M into the race last month. Then there was the visit by Biden.

“Some of the polling you guys have seen, it’s kind of a crapshoot,” O’Dea said to 50 supporters at the fundraiser in Golden last week, referencing public surveys about the race.

Former Sen. Gary Hart, a Democrat, is supporting Bennet and said he believes he’ll win, but credited O’Dea for the strategy he’s taking in the race.

“Speaking objectively, I think he’s presenting himself about the way he should,” Hart said. “He’s punching all the right buttons in terms of his TV ads — riding horses and having his daughter campaign for him on TV, all those fundamental, smart politics.

“The candidates are two decent, two honest people, not attention-getting. So it’s awfully hard to dislike either one of them.”

Josh Holmes, a political consultant who advises Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, recalls meeting O’Dea before his primary victory and sensing something “special” about his pitch: “I think pretty quickly, Democrats came on to the same idea we did, which is likely why they spent money in the primary trying to defeat him.”

Colorado is a tricky state for Republicans. It’s a purple state with blue tendencies. O’Dea is running as a moderate who will be his own man in D.C. and stand up to Mitch McConnell when necessary for the best interests of Colorado. Some of his positions may cause some more conservative Republican voters to pause. O’Dea has to turn out Independent and other unaffiliated voters in order to counter the advantage Democrats have in the state. Independent voters in Colorado have gone to Democrat candidates since 2016.

As examples of his willingness to go against GOP policies, O’Dea noted he supports abortion access beyond what most elected Republicans have called for, wants citizenship for childhood Dreamers and an easier path to legal immigration for workers, and opposes the repeal of Obamacare, citing the need to protect those with preexisting conditions.

In an interview at Spanky’s Roadhouse in Denver, sipping a Michelob Ultra he poured into a glass of ice, O’Dea elaborated on the kind of Republican senator he would be. He praised GOP Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski for trying to codify abortion rights up to roughly 24 weeks of pregnancy, a bill O’Dea said he is eager to help get passed if he’s elected. Sen. Mitt Romney “steps out every once in a while” to do what’s right, O’Dea said, adding that Sen. John Cornyn should be lauded for leading bipartisan talks on a gun control bill this year.

O’Dea said he would have been a no on convicting former President Donald Trump of impeachment — as he would be on any future GOP effort to impeach Biden. As for who he’d like to see win the White House in 2024, O’Dea rattled off several names for a future party leader: Tim Scott, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton or Nikki Haley, before adding that Ron DeSantis has done a good job as Florida governor.

The point is that O’Dea is a Republican candidate that can win the race in Colorado. Northeast Republicans are different than Southern Republicans. Colorado Republicans are not as conservative as others elsewhere. The important issues that concern the economy and inflation and business, the everyday issues O’Dea is running on, are what draw voters to vote Republican. This cycle the economy and crime are top issues, though Bennet and Democrats desperately want abortion to be the top issue.

An upset happened in 2014 in favor of the Republican candidate. To splash some cold water on perhaps unrealistic hopes of a Republican victory now, it should be noted that in 2014, the polling of that race showed it to be a tight race. Remember, Bennet has led all polls all along.

Republicans last won a Senate seat in Colorado in 2014, when Cory Gardner — propelled by voter dissatisfaction with Barack Obama — ousted Democratic Sen. Mark Udall by 2 percentage points. Udall’s loss was also attributed to his heavy focus on abortion rights over other issues during in the campaign.

But public polling that fall showed a tight race, with Gardner and Udall trading off the lead and remaining within a few points of each other. The neck-and-neck 2014 contest appeared much more competitive in the months leading up to the November election than polling in the current Colorado Senate race.

Bennet is no more popular in Colorado than Biden. This election, economic conditions will be more important than other issues. Bennet has voted 98% with Joe Biden. Those are all factors that play to O’Dea’s advantage.

There is one catch – in order for O’Dea to win, the Republican Party has to be united. O’Dea is very vocal in his preference that Trump does not run in 2024. Even though he said he would have voted no on impeaching Trump if he had been in the Senate then, his non-support of a 2024 run by Trump set off the former president. He now calls O’Dea a RINO and tells Colorado Republicans to not vote for him. If there are conservative Trump supporters in Colorado, will they listen to that advice? It hands the race to Bennet with certainty.

“There’s this RINO [Republican in Name Only] character in the Great State of Colorado, Joe O’Dea that is running against the incumbent Democrat for the United States Senate, who is having a good old time saying that he wants to ‘distance’ himself from President Trump, and other slightly nasty things,” Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social.

“He should look at the Economy, Inflation, Energy Independence, defeating ISIS, the Strongest EVER Border, Great Trade Deals, & much more, before he speaks. MAGA doesn’t Vote for stupid people with big mouths,” said Trump.

O’Dea didn’t back down Monday, stating he’s his “own man.”

“I’m a construction guy, not a politician,” O’Dea said in his statement, according to CNN.

“President Trump is entitled to his opinion but I’m my own man and I’ll call it like I see it.

“Another Biden, Trump election will tear this country apart. DeSantis, Scott, Pompeo or Haley would be better choices,” he said in reference to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, South Carolina US Sen. Tim Scott, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former US Ambassador Nikki Haley.

“These elections should be focused on Joe Biden’s failures – supercharged inflation, a broken border, rampant crime, a war on American energy – not a rehash of 2020. America needs to move forward.”

It’s probably not realistic to hope for a 2014 election outcome, especially with divisions being created within the party. That’s too bad. Nonetheless, this race is one to watch and see if it continues to tighten.