Democrat incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is in a very tight race against her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general. Cortez Masto is now considered the most endangered Democrat incumbent running for re-election. Democrat strategist James Carville says that she and other Democrat candidates are failing in their messaging to voters.

Democrats are counting on the Supreme Court’s decision on the Dobbs case to win over voters, protecting them from the predicted red wave. Carville noted that the strategy of using a single issue as the reason voters should vote for Democrats is not working out so well. It turns out that the white hot outrage of pro-abortion voters may have peaked too early and abortion isn’t even in the top three issues for voters in most polls. The top issues are the ones that every person deals with – inflation, crime, and high energy prices.

As of today, Laxalt is up 2.1 points over Cortez Masto according to Real Clear Politics aggregate averaging. The race is a toss-up. Since most polling tends to favor Democrats, this tends to make me believe that Laxalt will win in November. This can be the seat that flips the Senate from Democrat to Republican majority. That is, if there are no October surprises or major events that make voters lean toward a Democrat over a Republican. Laxalt is speaking to voters about the issues they care about in their everyday lives, as all Republican candidates should be doing. He just needs to stay the course.

Carville told the AP on Monday that “yelling abortion every other word” isn’t enough.

“A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots that will win for us. I don’t think so,” said Carville, a vocal Cortez Masto ally who has sent dozens of fundraising emails on her behalf. “It’s a good issue. But if you just sit there and they’re pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.”

For his part, Laxalt is steering clear of the abortion issue. His campaign refused to make him available for an interview with the AP but Cortez Masto avoided questions about her tough race against Laxalt.

In an interview, Cortez Masto sidestepped questions about her fragile political standing. She acknowledged “there’s more work to be done” on the economy in a working-class state in which gasoline remains over $5.40 per gallon, the unemployment rate is higher than the national average and spending at casinos has not kept pace with inflation.

“I know our families, the issues that are important to them are the kitchen-table issues,” she said, citing the recent passage by the Democratic-controlled Congress of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which lowered the cost of some prescription drugs and expanded health care coverage, among other Democratic priorities.

“But I also know, talking with our families, the repeal of Roe v. Wade is having an impact,” she said. “We’re a pro-choice state, proudly. That’s why so many are outraged by the repeal.”

Yet, Laxalt is moving ahead of Cortez Masto in polling. Is Nevada still a purple state or has it become a solid blue state? Cortez Masto is one of many Democrat candidates running away from Joe Biden and not asking him to campaign with her. Nevada has a Democrat governor and two Democrat senators. The state legislature has a Democrat majority. But, Trump lost the state by less than 34,000 votes in 2020. Polls suggest that Republicans may take several statewide offices in the midterm elections in November. Cortez Masto coyly says that Biden is welcome in Nevada but she’s campaigning on her own.

“The president is always welcome in the state of Nevada. But really, my goal here is to make sure I’m addressing the needs of Nevadans,” she said, adding that she wasn’t surprised Trump was in the state campaigning for Laxalt.

Laxalt “was the face of the big lie for President Trump in the state,” Cortez Masto said. “In my view, he stands with the insurrectionists and not the people of Nevada.”

Laxalt mocks Cortez Masto for avoiding Joe Biden, as he did during a campaign rally with Trump last Saturday.

“She won’t mention the two words: ‘Joe Biden.’ Will Joe Biden come to Nevada anytime soon? I’m still waiting for that invite,” Laxalt snickered, speaking from a podium emblazoned with Trump’s name.

Laxalt is pulling ahead of Cortez Masto likely because Nevada’s electorate is overwhelmingly working-class compared to voters in other battleground states. This leaves them more vulnerable to the economy. High gas prices, in particular, affect the livelihood of Nevada residents. Fewer drivers are crossing into Nevada from California to go to Las Vegas. Gaming revenue has not kept pace with inflation. What are those Nevada voters going to have on the top of their minds during this election – abortion or how they are trying to pay their bills and keep their families fed with less income?

According to Nevada Republicans, abortion is a settled issue in the state.

Nevada Republicans also note that abortion — in the state, at least — is settled because of a 1990 referendum that codified abortion access until 24 weeks of pregnancy into state law.

Yusette Solomon, a canvasser for the state’s powerful pro-Democrat Culinary Workers union, said he doesn’t hear much about abortion when talking to voters. Instead, the 47-year-old hotel utility porter said, the state’s economic challenges remain a constant concern.

“It’s hard for everybody,” he said. “It’s the supermarket. It’s gas. Inflation is something we need to deal with. Everyone’s feeling it.”

Indeed. It’s hard for everyone. That’s Carville’s point. Only concentrating on abortion is foolhardy of Democrats. Granted, it’s the only issue they have, but voters are not as concerned about that as they are about everyday life issues. That’s good news for Laxalt and Republicans in Nevada.