Senator Joe Manchin (D- WVA) is about to run into a brick wall. He made a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer over the Inflation Reduction Act and voted in favor of the bill in exchange for a pipeline in West Virginia and permitting reform. A procedural vote is tentatively scheduled for Tuesday night in the Senate for Manchin’s permitting reform bill.

The drama is still fresh in our minds. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) is a budget reconciliation bill that Schumer got the Senate Democrats to vote for though it has nothing to do with fighting inflation and everything to do with climate change. It is the Green New Deal-lite. The IRA authorizes $370 billion in spending on energy and climate change, along with addition funding for alleged deficit reduction, Obamacare subsidies, prescription drug reform, and tax reform. By tax reform, Team Biden means it will hire 87,000 new IRS agents to comb over tax returns of everyday working people in hopes of finding more money for Biden’s agenda. You get the picture. The bill could have funded more police officers, but no, law and order is not a top priority for the Biden administration. It’s Build Back Better 2.0.

Joe Manchin held out until the last minute in order to leverage his vote for approval of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. That project is estimated to support 3,700 construction jobs in West Virginia. Manchin also insisted Schumer bring his permitting reform bill to the Senate floor for a vote. Schumer was desperate for Manchin’s vote and agreed. He said he would attach Manchin’s bill to must-pass legislation before the end of September. Here we are at September 27 and a vote to proceed is scheduled. Manchin’s bill will be attached to a shell bill Schumer hopes to use to pass a government funding bill. Schumer is now desperate to pass a bill to avoid a government shutdown as a Friday deadline looms.

It is unlikely that Manchin’s bill will pass. He is shocked, shocked I tell you, that he is getting Republican pushback on his bill. He knew that the far left progressives like Bernie Sanders would object out of fear that permit reforms, which are meant to get rid of some of the red tape in drilling permits and speed up the paperwork process, will increase fossil fuel production. Here’s the thing – Manchin has made a big deal out of how much he is trying to work with Republicans since Biden took office. He’s Mr. Bipartisan. Well, that was all fine and good until he decided Build Back Better 2.0 would get his vote in exchange for a pipeline. Instead of being the vote that could have stopped the horrendous climate change bill, he allowed it to pass. No Republican voted for it. Now they are going to punish him.

Manchin is whining now that he never expected Republican opposition to his bill. The junior senator from West Virginia, Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, has rival legislation. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is urging Republicans to vote for her bill and reject Manchin’s. McConnell is treating the procedural vote as a test vote. Never bet against McConnell when it comes to procedures and process. His knowledge of those is his superpower.

A memo circulated by Republican leaders Monday warned legislation introduced by Manchin last week would not change any environmental laws but rather create “unenforceable deadlines” for federal agencies that are unlikely to speed permitting.

“The language provides so much wiggle room that activist bureaucrats and Biden political appointees could ignore most of the bill’s deadlines and requirements,” the memo said.

Manchin optimistically hopes he has 40, maybe 45 votes for his bill. That means he needs 15 Republican votes. Will he get them? That’s the question. So far there is no indication that any of them are going to side with Manchin over McConnell’s advice to stick together and defeat the bill.

Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) is leading the whip effort, but the top three Senate Republican leaders — including him, McConnell and Senate GOP Conference Chairman John Barrasso (Wyo.) — are on the same page.

Barrasso, who is also the ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, says that in some ways Manchin’s bill is a step backwards in terms of the authority it hands to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Federal Reserve.

Politics make strange bedfellows. In this case, Republicans will help progressives like Sanders to defeat Manchin’s bill. Republicans say that Capito’s bill is better. Manchin’s bill doesn’t go far enough for true reforms.

Capito’s Simplify Timelines and Assure Regulatory Transparency (START) Act is more comprehensive than Manchin’s bill.

It would codify the Trump administration’s National Environmental Policy Act regulations, codify Trump’s Navigable Waters Protection Rule’s definition of waters subject to federal protection, expedite the permitting and review processes, setting a framework for timely approvals of energy projects, limiting permitting review schedules to two years and limiting the page length of environmental documents.

Manchin is up for reelection in 2024. There’s no doubt he is using the pipeline construction and the jobs it will create as a reason for voters to reward him with another term in office. West Virginia voters are not at all pleased with Manchin’s yes vote for the Inflation Reduction Act.

On Monday, eighteen Republican attorneys general sent a letter to Schumer and McConnell urging them to oppose Manchin’s bill.

They warned the bill would empower FERC to steamroll over their state’s sovereignty over building transmission facilities.

“This would create the scenario where FERC would have the authority to determine the national interest and require companies to build what it orders and where,” they wrote. “This is a massive expansion of FERC’s authority which currently only allows FERC to order public utilities to physically connect their existing transmission lines.”

If Republicans block the motion to proceed to the House shell bill on Tuesday, then Schumer will have to come up with plan B to pass a short-term funding resolution before government funding expires at 12 a.m. Saturday.

The Democratic leader could then opt to bring to the floor a continuing resolution that doesn’t include Manchin’s permitting reform bill.

Pass the popcorn.