The power of Donald Trump’s endorsement is being tested in Texas 2022 primary races. Is it enough for the incumbent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to avoid a run-off race? It doesn’t look likely. Early voting is going on in Texas right now and Election Day is March 1. Texas has the first primary in the country this cycle and it will be interesting to see the results of Trump’s endorsements.

Paxton is being challenged by three contenders, all qualified and with their own strengths. Most notable of Paxton’s primary challengers is George P. Bush, the current Texas Land Commissioner. Is Trump’s endorsement of Paxton more powerful than George P.’s family legacy in Texas Republican politics? It looks like Paxton will not win the primary outright, he’ll be forced into a run-off, probably with Bush. The latest University of Texas at Tyler and the Dallas Morning News poll published on Sunday shows Paxton below the 50% plus 1 threshold to avoid a run-off race.

“The only way that Ken Paxton has the potential right now to get more than 51-percent, if our sample looks like the rest of the state, is if there’s very low turnout and he was able to get two out of every four or five undecided voters to support him,” said Dr. Mark Owens, political science professor at UT Tyler.

Also challenging Paxton are Rep. Louis Gohmert, who is from East Texas, and former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman. In the UT Tyler/DMN poll, Gohmert is at the bottom of the heap.

Paxton is at 39%, George P. Bush 25%, Eva Guzman 13%, Gohmert 7%, and 16% don’t know who they support. Paxton’s opponents are moving up and the ad campaigns from all of them are at the relentless phase during the early voting period. Despite the best efforts from Democrats to say otherwise, there is a generous early voting period in Texas with this one going from February 14 to February 25. Polling places were closed in observance of President’s Day.

George P. courted Trump’s endorsement. Bush (son of Jeb!) endorsed Trump for president in 2016 and again in 2020. However, Paxton’s ties to Trump are stronger. Paxton filed the federal lawsuit, Texas v. Pennsylvania, to invalidate the presidential election results in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Supreme Court shot that down. Paxton attended the pro-Trump rally in Washington on January 6. Both Paxton and Bush attended Trump’s campaign-style rally north of Houston recently.

The campaign ads attack Paxton on corruption charges he is fighting because, well, there is plenty there to attack.

In 2015, a grand jury indicted Paxton on securities fraud charges. The case remains open, and no trial has been scheduled. Additionally, the FBI opened an investigation into Paxton in 2020 after former aides accused him of bribery and abuse of office. Paxton has denied wrongdoing in both cases.

Bush, in his second term as Land Commissioner, says that “Texans deserve a top advocate that’s above reproach, not under indictment, focused on the job, going to defend our state against federal overreach, but also take on progressive mayors that are doing everything, for example, here in Austin, such as defunding the police.”

Gohmert has represented Texas’ 1st Congressional District since 2005. He said he jumped into the race because he is concerned the FBI could indict Paxton after the primary, handing the general election to a Democratic candidate. In an ad, Gohmert said, “Ken Paxton is under indictment for securities fraud and facing a federal investigation for bribery and corruption, so Louie Gohmert is running to save Texas and restore honesty and integrity to the office of Attorney General.” Gohmert said he would fight to preserve election integrity, oppose unconstitutional pandemic mandates, and stop illegal immigration.

Guzman served on the Texas Supreme Court from 2009 to 2021. She completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. She said she was running because she believes “it’s time we restore experience, integrity, and credibility to the Texas Attorney General’s Office.” She pointed to her experience as a judge as a reason she should be attorney general, saying the office “requires someone with a deep knowledge of both criminal and civil law and the ability to digest complex legal issues–and win. I know how to win cases because I know how to think like a judge.”

All of his challengers are trying to run to the right of Paxton, which is pretty hard to do, given that no one questions his conservative cred in office. He regularly sues the Biden administration over everything from COVID-19 mandates to the Biden border crisis. He’s successfully argued in support of Texas election integrity reforms which dishonest Democrats label as voter suppression and the return of Jim Crow laws. It makes sense that they all focus on issues of integrity and honesty.

Yesterday, several high-level whistleblowers broadsided Paxton, calling him out for making “false and misleading” statements on the campaign trail about them. Three former deputy attorneys general are in this group of whistleblowers from Paxton’s office.

Eight whistleblowers accused Paxton of bribery and corruption tied to a series of acts and favors he allegedly performed for multi-millionaire Austin investor Nate Paul, just as his real estate empire was falling on hard times.

The whistleblowers describe several instances in which Paxton allegedly used his taxpayer-funded office to assist the once high-flying businessman, including: ordering up a legal opinion that helped property owners like Paul avoid foreclosure, mysteriously walking off with sensitive law enforcement files Paul was trying to get his hands on, and improperly hiring an outside lawyer to go after Paul’s adversaries.

Their stories about Paxton’s efforts on behalf of Paul, which leaked out into news reports and eventually court papers, helped trigger an FBI investigation of Paxton, who was already under unrelated state felony indictment for securities fraud. Paxton and Paul deny any wrongdoing.

All of the whistleblowers got fired or resigned, and Paxton has called these former top aides — representing the top echelon of the attorney general’s office — “rogue” and disgruntled employees. The four speaking out now filed lawsuits against the attorney general, who is trying to win the Republican Party nod for a third four-year term in office.

George P. Bush has received an assortment of strong endorsements. He’s been endorsed by the National Border Patrol Council and that group, led by President Brandon Judd, is airing campaign ads for Bush. The group represents all rank-and-file Border Patrol agents nationwide so it is a little surprising that Paxton, who has been Governor Abbott’s right hand man in legal challenges over border issues against the Biden administration, lost out on that endorsement. The lack of desire by Team Biden to secure the southern border is a huge issue with Texas voters this cycle. Judd was a staunch Trump supporter which is another example of how the old guard versus new guard battles in the Texas Republican party are playing out.

I expect Paxton will ultimately win re-election but he’ll have to do so after a run-off race with Bush. Election Day is March 1.