The line between political analysis and progressive-horror-fiction is pretty thin in some places. We're just a little over two weeks out from the 2024 election, president-elect Trump won't be sworn into office for another two months and already the Bulwark has published an article arguing that Trump will run again in 2028.

Some commentators have said that Trump has no real intention of running again, that he is just teasing and trolling, warding off the bad vibes of being a lame duck. Indeed, although he has on many occasions hinted at making another run, Trump has also sometimes said he’s done.

Other commentators have suggested that Trump might just try to run for president in 2028 and dare the courts to stop him. But no, Professor Michael McConnell assures Vox, there are no loopholes: “This will be his last run for president.” Short of amending the Constitution to override the amendment that created presidential term limits—a steep climb, as it would require the assent of three-quarters of state legislatures—Trump simply cannot run again, end of story.

And yet, Stanford’s renowned constitutional law scholar concedes that Trump could “theoretically” run for the vice presidency in 2028, then take over as president if his running mate resigned immediately after being inaugurated. But this just “isn’t going to happen,” McConnell asserts, calling the idea a “silly thing to worry about.”

The framing of this is so interesting to me. Notice that the entire focus here is in giving progressives something new to worry about. It's telling because these same people spent the past year (at least) giving progressives something to worry about. That worry was the looming end of democracy. The shorthand version was this: Trump is a fascist (and maybe Hitler) and he would end democracy if he were elected again. The entire campaign was the equivalent of a guy shuffling down the street with a sandwich board on his chest that read "The end of democracy is nigh."

And yet, two weeks after the thing that was supposed to lead to the end of democracy they are already daydreaming about a new outrage for the next election, i.e. the one they assured us wouldn't happen if Trump were elected. This seems like a significant walkback of their previous position. If there is going to be an election in 2028, doesn't that mean democracy didn't end? You sort of get the impression they are making this up as they go.

But the main point, again, is to give progressives something new to worry about because to be a progressive these days is to be a person constantly on the edge of a depressive collapse. If you aren't worried to death by what the GOP will do next, you aren't really on the team. 

The piece walks us through a bunch of scenarios, starting with the Supreme Court just allowing Trump to ignore the 22nd Amendment and run again. Even the author admits this sounds like a stretch.

...it’s difficult to see how even the most slavish Supreme Court could justify allowing Trump to run for re-election to the presidency in 2028. After all, Republican appointees still claim to be textualists—and the text of the Twenty-second Amendment is exceedingly clear.

And that brings us back to the idea of Trump running as VP and then stepping up when the VP suddenly resigns. It's pretty odd to see this Trump will violate the norms argument coming from the same site that recently endorsed packing the court. Anyway, back to the fan fiction:

SO SAY IT’S 2029, President Vance has just resigned and Trump has become president again. Who would become the new vice president? Let’s think through some scenarios.

Rather than admit all of this seems pretty far-fetched, the article ends with the assurance that all of this is going to happen. In fact, it already is happening you just have to admit it to yourself.

The “______/Trump 2028” campaign has already begun. Most of us just haven’t accepted that fact yet.

Are you worried? If not then you must not be a progressive.

I hate to have the real world intrude on this incipient panic attack but Donald Trump is 78 years old. He'll be 82 by the time the next election rolls around. You may have noticed from watching Joe Biden that this job ages you pretty quickly. If Trump can finish his second term with all his faculties intact, that'll be impressive. He's not going to run again, not even if the Supreme Court announces it is striking the 22nd Amendment just for him. Even the toughest fighters have to retire eventually. Democrats will have to find a new Republican to denounce as Hitler soon enough.