As I pointed out earlier, some Democrats are openly suggesting that trans issues might have played a role in the election outcome.

“Democrats spend way too much time trying not to offend anyone rather than being brutally honest about the challenges many Americans face,” said Representative Seth Moulton, a Democrat from Massachusetts. “I have two little girls. I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat, I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.”

Similarly, Rep. Tom Suozzi in New York had this to say.

“The Democrats have to stop pandering to the far left,” he said. “I don’t want to discriminate against anybody, but I don’t think biological boys should be playing in girls’ sports.” He added, “Democrats aren’t saying that, and they should be.”

Washington Post columnist Matt Bai also suggested that one of Trump's ads on this issue may been the most effective of the cycle.

I do think the prosecutions fed a narrative of Trump as victim. I also think Democrats dug themselves into a hole on cultural issues and identity politics. Trump’s vicious transgender ad in the closing weeks (“She’s for they/them, he’s for you”) was probably the most effective of the cycle. I think that probably landed with a lot of traditionally Democratic voters who feel like the party is consumed with cultural issues while the economic issues don’t really change.

Here's the ad in question:

The comments by Matt Bai at the Post prompted a response on Morning Joe where Scarborough suggested campus cancel culture and extremism on the issue of trans people in girls sports had hurt the party.

"Democrats should be smarter on the women's athletics thing. 85% of Americans oppose men transitioning after puberty competing against women." -Morning Joe of MSNBC

They lost so bad they're starting to have common sense again. pic.twitter.com/lkYfy41G5M

— Riley Gaines (@Riley_Gaines_) November 6, 2024

But trans activists are telling the NY Times this feels like 2004 all over again.

In interviews, several L.G.B.T.Q. advocates said this moment reminded them of 2004, when ballot measures to ban same-sex marriage passed in many states, before marriage equality gained support from a majority of Americans.

Some said they saw hope in the election of Sarah McBride, a Delaware Democrat who won a seat in the House of Representatives and will become the first openly transgender person in Congress. And Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen, executive director of Advocates for Trans Equality, said his organization was now planning an effort to shift public opinion.

“We’re now in that dark period where we have to fight,” Mr. Heng-Lehtinen said. “We know that most Americans, no matter where they live, still don’t think that they know a transgender person.”

The activists are right that many people did eventually change their opinion on gay marriage. However, I don't think having trans people compete in women's sports is going to be the same thing.

If you're married, you may have ups and downs but there's no sense in which you're out to beat your neighbors or friends. That's not the point of the thing. Indeed, gay marriage advocates used to make exactly this point, i.e. how does my ability to marry impact your marriage? There were some counterarguments at the time but eventually most people decided that, like it or not, it just wasn't a competition. There was room for a more libertarian approach.

But sports will always be a direct competition between teams or individuals and therefore it can never become a live and let live situation. You don't train to compete in a race or a swim meet to show tolerance for other's differences, you train and compete to win. This only works if there is a level playing field. 

So while I'm often wary of making predictions in this case I don't see how the left can win. And the same goes for other edge cases like incarceration. You can say you're a woman but if you still have a penis, you should not be incarcerated in a woman's prison (and vice versa).

In any case, even if some sort of trans utopia awaits us all 20 years from now, that doesn't help Democrats who are trying to get elected this year. Politics, like sports, is a competition. Saying your campaign will look genius two decades from now won't help you win a race in 2024. People just are not there at the moment and Democrats would be wise to acknowledge that.