Over the weekend I wrote about recently hints that the Harris campaign might be in trouble in Michigan, a swing state they need to win next month. One of the issues that has Democrats in the state feeling nervous is the ongoing Israeli-Hamas war. As one Lebanese activist told Reuters, Harris was going to lose a lot of votes over the Biden administration's stance.

"Harris is going to lose Michigan," said Ali Dagher, a Lebanese American attorney and community leader. "I will not be voting for Kamala Harris. No one I know will vote for her. I cannot find a single person in the community who supports her."

Today, the NY Times has a follow-up article which seems to confirm all of these concerns are very real. Harris is in real trouble in the state, at least among Arab American voters. Some are turning to Trump and others to third party candidates, but they are ruling out voting for Harris. [emphasis added]

“I personally don’t know anyone who would vote for Harris,” said Imam Hassan Qazwini, who founded the Islamic Institute of America in Dearborn Heights and said that he planned to vote third party this year after supporting Mr. Biden in 2020 in his personal capacity. Initially, he said, many Muslims hoped that Vice President Kamala Harris would “show some even-handedness and fairness in handling the conflict. But unfortunately, that was wishful thinking.”...

The discontent is palpable on the ground in Michigan, which has more than 300,000 residents with Middle Eastern or North African ancestry, though high-quality polling on Arab American and Muslim voters is scant. In nearly two dozen interviews this weekend with a range of these voters across levels of religious observance and familial countries of origin, just two said they were voting for her...

“Most people that I know are either third-party or Trump,” said Fatima Klait, 25, a nurse who lives in Dearborn and said she intended to vote third-party after backing Mr. Biden in 2020. “I would rather have us not be involved in Israel whatsoever. But I do believe that Trump would do less damage overseas.”...

“He cares more about what’s going on in America,” said Mr. Beydoun, who said he supported Mr. Biden in 2020 but was now backing Mr. Trump. “The Democratic Party seems to care more about what’s going on in other countries versus their own people.”

The comments on this story are full of Democrats outraged that anyone would consider voting for Trump no matter what Harris does. But none of that rage is going to matter to these voters in Michigan. 

Abbas Alawieh, a Dearborn Democratic strategist and one of the co-founders of the “uncommitted movement," backed Biden in 2020. But earlier this year, he and other organizers successfully secured more than 100,000 “uncommitted” votes in the Michigan primary to protest Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza...

“This is a grieving community. So, for us to give guidance to vote for Kamala Harris, when she is part of the administration that's actively killing their family members, it's like giving a campaign speech at a funeral.”

Again, not everyone who is turned off by Harris is going to vote for Trump, but it could contribute to a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Harris which could make a big difference in a state where a few thousand votes could determine the outcome. Some of these voters might just feel more comfortable with the GOP message.

Saeed Khan, an associate professor of Near Eastern and Asian Studies at Wayne State University, said Muslim and Arab voters were drifting toward Trump in 2016, and some continue to do so today, not only because of a push away from Democrats, but also a pull toward the Republican Party’s values. Many Arabs and Muslims, immigrant Muslims, voted for the Republican ticket at least until September 11 and then started to move toward the Democratic Party.

“The Republican message of self-reliance, smaller government or less government intrusion, lower taxes, social conservatism really appealed to many, especially immigrant Muslims and Arabs, because it epitomized the American Dream that they had internalized,” Khan said.

This race is looking razor thin. Recent polls have gone both ways with some showing a slight edge for Trump and others a slight edge for Harris. All of the recent polls are within the margin of error. As CNN points out, Harris has almost no chance of winning this election if she loses Michigan. This is make or break.