Even as both sides in the presidential race seem to be focusing on Pennsylvania, there have been some stories lately suggesting Dems are feeling a bit nervous about the outcome in Michigan. We had this story in our headlines a few days ago:

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) warned donors last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign shows Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in Michigan, according to a video clip obtained by Axios.

Here's the video:

MI Dem Senate Candidate Warns Internal Polling Shows Kamala ‘Underwater’ In State | The Daily Wire

"I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are in Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan."

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who is running for the open Senate seat in Michigan,… pic.twitter.com/uhDC2JoJ1f

— Owen Gregorian (@OwenGregorian) October 1, 2024

As Ed pointed out when this story broke, this could be true but it also could be the kind of thing you say on a call with donors to convince them you really need their money. On the other hand, it is interesting that Rep. Slotkin seemed to back away from this when asked.

On a call with donors this week, Slotkin said her campaign’s polling showed Harris “underwater” in the state, a synonym for trailing. Her comments to donors were first reported by Axios.

Slotkin dismissed the term as “just an expression that this is an exceptionally close race,” when asked to clarify her remark.

It's hard to tell if she's backtracking because her earlier comments weren't true or because they were. Maybe she really did slip and say something she wasn't supposed to say out loud. The leader of a Democratic outreach group seemed to confirm that the race is very tight.

“What did we see? Money coming in like crazy. Everybody was excited. There was such a bump,” said [Lori] Goldman, who founded Fems for Dems, a leading Michigan Democratic voter outreach group based in Oakland County. “And now, you know, it’s neck and neck.”

Politico has a story out today confirming that some Democrats in Michigan are feeling nervous.

“The prevailing sentiment was we’re all in on Pennsylvania. And if we win Pennsylvania, we’re automatically winning Michigan and Wisconsin — but there’s nothing automatic about winning Michigan,” said state Sen. Darrin Camilleri. “All of us hoped on the Democratic side that having a new, younger, forward-looking nominee would fundamentally change this race and she’d be leading by 5 points, but that is just not the case. There’s a lot of anxiety about the strength of Trump’s brand here, and Michigan Democrats are coming back to reality about it.”...

“It’s not won,” said Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell. “We are more competitive than people realize.”...

Democrats also remain concerned about the vice president’s appeal among white, working-class voters. Harris was endorsed early on by the UAW, which has a strong base of supporters across the blue wall states, but the Teamsters and Firefighters union non-endorsements have spooked the party.

Another problem the Harris camp is dealing with in Michigan is the war in Gaza. Harris met with Arab American leaders this week in an attempt to smooth over that divide.

The meeting is one of several attempts in recent days to mend fences with Muslim and Arab voters, who resoundingly backed Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 but could withhold their votes from Harris in numbers that would cost her the key state of Michigan...

Some Arab Americans believe Harris' refusal to distance herself from President Biden's policies in the Middle East, as Israel escalates its attacks, will cost her in November.

"Harris is going to lose Michigan," said Ali Dagher, a Lebanese American attorney and community leader. "I will not be voting for Kamala Harris. No one I know will vote for her. I cannot find a single person in the community who supports her."

Harris can meet with the left-leaning community leaders but that doesn't mean Arab Americans are going to side with her. This is one case where being part of the current administration really ought to matter.

Bottom line, it's looking like a very tight race, one that could be decided by a few thousand votes. The surest sign that Democrats are worried is that Harris has already visited the state three times since she became the candidate.