New York's Metro Transit Authority (MTA) was in the news last month for setting a world record for the sheer number of bus and rail patrons who refuse to pay a fare to ride. A full 48% of bus riders had ceased to pay the fare in addition to about 14% of subway riders. Now the MTA has approved a new capital plan, saying it needs $65.4 billion over the next several years to keep the system going.

Much of the plan focuses on basic repairs, like upgrading decades-old electrical equipment and repairing elevated subway structures. There’s spending for new turnstiles and 2,000 new subway and commuter railroad train cars.

But at least one watchdog has already suggested the new plan is unrealistic and needs to be pared down.

Fiscal watchdogs at the Citizens Budget Commission argue the MTA should focus on maintaining the existing transit system instead of committing billions of dollars to expansion projects like the Interborough Express.

“The plan is larger than can be accomplished in the next five years,” the group wrote in an email. “

The NY Post published an opinion piece a few days ago looking at some serious problems with the plan.

The MTA expects at least $13 billion in federal funds, based on past plans, and expects to borrow $10 billion.

But this leaves more hole than plan: $45 billion-ish in . . . we’ll figure it out later.

Worse, it’s not clear that the MTA can borrow $10 billion. It already owes $47.8 billion, and starting halfway through the next capital plan, it will face half-a-billion-dollar annual deficits, making it harder to pay interest on those loans.

Plus: it’s not just the next capital plan that’s unfunded. With three months left on the current capital plan, the MTA is still missing billions of dollars for it.

The author goes on to point out that New York has already added at least three new taxes in recent years, including a taxi tax, a mansion tax and a payroll tax. The one tax which Gov. Hochul blocked at the last minute was a congestion tax on cars in lower Manhattan. But even if Hochul does an about face on the congestion tax, that was supposed to fund about $15 billion of the current five-year plan. It can't also fund the billions requested in the new plan. 

The only solution left would seem to be more borrowing, but there's a limit to that too.

The MTA already owes $47 billion, as of Sept. 13, according to MTA documents. It wants to keep annual principal and interest costs to about 15% of its operating budget, although MTA anticipates those expenses will take up about 16% in 2031 and 2032 when including the $13 billion of anticipated debt from the next capital plan, Kevin Willens, the MTA’s chief financial officer, said Monday...

The MTA could issue $21 billion of debt to help fund its next capital plan, although that level of borrowing would result in debt-service costs taking up 18% of its budget, Thomas DiNapoli, the state’s comptroller, said in a report earlier this month. The Citizens Budget Commission, a nonprofit group that analyzes New York City and state finances, recommends the MTA limit its borrowing to $2 billion for the 2025—2029 capital plan, according to a report released last week.

There really don't seem to be any good options here. If the MTA puts off needed repairs that will lead to additional costs and problems. On the other hand, the MTA really does not have the money to spend now. Unless the state suddenly comes up with $30-$45 billion dollars it's hard to see how this is going to work. That's especially true when it seems many New Yorkers have decided they no longer want to pay for the system at all. Some have suggested making it free but that would add billions more to the annual budget. Where is all of this money supposed to come from?