The Democrats' razor thin control of the Senate is not looking very solid at this point. The latest good news for Senate Republicans comes in the form of an AARP poll out of Montana which shows Republican candidate Tim Sheehy leading Democrat Jon Tester by 8 points.

Vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester trails his GOP opponent by 8 points in a new independent poll of Montana’s Senate race — a result that could very well tip control of the Senate to Republicans.

Republican Tim Sheehy took 49 percent of the vote, compared to Tester’s 41 percent, on a four-way ballot, according to the late-August survey of 600 likely voters in the state commissioned by AARP.

Sheehy has led in previous polls but now it looks like he is pulling away.

While polls released so far have shown Tester behind, most have shown the three-term incumbent within the margin of error, making the race too close to call. But in the AARP poll, the combined polling, which had a margin of error of +/- 3.5%, shows Tester outside that margin.

Most of the issues driving the race are economic but there was one other national issue that had voters' attention.

While the polling firms asked about a list of subjects, economic issues topped the list, with concerns about personal income, the cost of housing, Medicaid and property taxes all showing up. When taken together, they indicate that “personal pocketbook” issues remain the dominant issue.

However, as a single-subject, the topic of immigration also polled highly. Polling firms noted the deep divide on the subject, though, with many older and Republican voters ranking it high, while Democrats and independents tended to center on “threats to democracy” or reproductive rights.

What this means is that Republicans are looking good to take the Senate regardless of who wins the presidential election. Right now the balance is 51-49 thanks to Independents who caucus with the Democrats. In theory Democrats could lose one seat and retain control if Kamala Harris wins the White House. However, if Dems lose two seats they lose the Senate regardless of what happens in the presidential race. And right now there are two seats they are likely going to lose, Montana and West Virginia.

West Virginia is a lock for the GOP, as Governor Jim Justice is very popular, and Trump should win the state by roughly 40 points. This would be a gain, as the seat had been held by Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin since 2010. That means the Democrats will need to run the table on every other contested race to narrowly control the chamber, thanks to the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.

There are other potential pickups for the GOP including the race in Ohio which is still regarded as a toss-up:

Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown currently leads, but Trump will likely win Ohio by 8–10 points even if he loses nationwide. Republican Bernie Moreno remains less well known that Brown and has started to place significant television ad buys. This contest will be closer than Montana’s, but there’s no reason to count Moreno out yet.

With eight weeks to go we could still see some surprises, especially if momentum shifts in the presidential race. But as of this moment, GOP control of the Senate is looking pretty good. When it comes to domestic policy that means either that Harris (if she wins) will be fighting a losing battle with congress or that Trump (if he wins) will be able to get some things passed. 

And of course it would be especially good news for the makeup of the Supreme Court. If Trump wins the White House, Democratic heads will explode as Trump extends conservative control of SCOTUS for another decade or more.