If you look at polls in Canada, it has appeared that Justin Trudeau might be in trouble for most of the past year. The guy who was supposed to be the hip, progressive face of government was being opposed by 70% of young Canadians. It really looked like the right was headed for a big win in the next election. The only problem was that the next election wasn't until late 2025. 

However, things may have changed today. The NDP, a left-leaning party that makes up part of Trudeau's coalition government, has just backed out of its agreement.

Canada’s left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) has pulled the plug on a two-and-a-half-year-old agreement with Justin Trudeau's Liberals that had helped keep his minority government in power.

In a video posted to social media on Wednesday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said he had informed the prime minister of his decision, saying the Liberals were "too weak, too selfish" to fight for Canadians.

The deal - called a "supply and confidence" agreement - had the NDP supporting the Liberals in confidence votes...

"The NDP is ready for an election," Mr Singh said.

Here's the announcement Jagmeet Singh posted on social media. 

The deal is done.

The Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to stop the Conservatives and their plans to cut. But the NDP can.

Big corporations and CEOs have had their governments. It's the people's time. pic.twitter.com/BsE9zT0CwF

— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) September 4, 2024

As you can see, he's framing this as a desperate bid to block the conservatives from coming to power. He's presenting himself as the truly liberal alternative in the next election. But will this work? Or will it in fact hasten the conservatives rise to power? If Trudeau has been sliding toward the center, that's probably because he's trying to blunt the appeal of the conservatives. It's hard to see how a party that is to his left is going to garner more support.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been bashing "sellout Singh" for some time. Last week he called on him to do exactly what he did today, end the agreement with Trudeau.

"Canadians can't afford or even endure another year of this costly coalition. No one voted for you to keep Trudeau in power. You do not have a mandate to drag out his government another year," Poilievre wrote in his letter.

"Pull out of the costly coalition and vote non-confidence in the government this September to trigger a carbon tax election in October of THIS YEAR. Or you will forever be known as 'Sellout Singh,'" Poilievre said...

"Justin Trudeau will not quit — he must be fired — and the person to do it is Jagmeet Singh," Poilievre said.

It's hard to tell what motivated Singh to essentially agree with Poilievre, but it may be that Trudeau has become such a skunk at the garden party that anyone backing him does so at the cost of their own credibility. Better to get out now than back him for another long, unpopular year and go down with him.

Poilievre reacted to today's news by calling it a "stunt." His point is that Singh didn't go far enough. Tearing up the agreement means the NDP won't back Trudeau if a vote of no confidence is called but Singh didn't actually commit to holding such a vote. "If you're serious about ending your costly, carbon tax coalition with Trudeau, then commit today to voting for a carbon tax election at the earliest confidence vote in the House of Commons." Here's his pitch to hold an election next month.