Someone had to write this. I mean, Joe Biden is six months out from the next election and immigration has been a problem for him. So someone had to write the article saying he's doing a great job. That someone is Catherine Rampell at the Washington Post. At least she's not shy about making it clear this is transparently intended as a pitch to vote for Biden.

Psst. Have you heard? Illegal border crossings are down. Way down.

From the last four months of 2023 to the first four months of 2024, illegal crossings at the U.S. southwestern border fell a whopping 40 percent, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Such crossings usually rise in the early months of a calendar year, as the weather warms, so this number might even understate the turnaround.

Two takeaways from this development: First, the standard GOP (and media) talking points about the “border crisis” are woefully out of date. Second: Anyone who cares about border security should support a presidential candidate with (ahem) good diplomatic relationships.

The numbers are real but its worth noting that the decline they show is literally coming off the highest number of border encounters in US history. We set that record in December and the months before that were also extremely high. So compared to the worst things have ever been, we're doing 40% better. But as Rampell admits in passing, the recent numbers are still pretty high historically.

Biden administration officials have talked a little about these numbers, but they seem loath to prematurely declare victory. (And to be fair, April’s border apprehensions, at around 130,000, remain high by historical standards.)

The numbers for January and February were, so far as I can tell, the highest numbers for those months since at least 2012, and possibly ever. The numbers for March appear to be the third highest ever for that month. The numbers for April appear to be the 4th highest ever recorded for that month. So is there improvement? Yes. Are we still at record highs or near record highs? Also yes. That's probably why the Biden administration isn't declaring this a mission accomplished. The situation isn't good it's only somewhat less awful than the worst it has ever been.

The article also points out that most of the improvement seems to the result of action by Mexico. Rampell cites this article which says Mexico is stopping about 8,000 migrants per day.

U.S. officials say a crackdown on migrants by the Mexican government is the biggest factor. Using military patrols and highway checkpoints, Mexican authorities have been intercepting roughly 8,000 U.S.-bound migrants per day, according to officials in both countries.

Mexico launched its campaign at the behest of U.S. officials after illegal crossings soared in December to nearly 250,000, an all-time high, further eroding Biden’s poll ratings on border security.

To her credit, Rampell admits that Mexico's "previous crackdowns eventually petered out." And this one seems likely to as well. This NBC News report from January makes it clear that Mexico's President AMLO is playing politics.

Mexico brings significant leverage to the negotiations, the U.S. and Mexican officials said. López Obrador’s administration would prefer that President Joe Biden win re-election in November, given Donald Trump’s rhetoric and actions during his time in office. But Biden is quickly running out of options to fix a problem that is driving down his poll numbers without increased support from Mexico, three U.S. officials told NBC News.

So the situation at the moment is that a foreign president is doing his best to aid the re-election of Joe Biden by intercepting about 8,000 migrants per day. Without that help, we'd still be seeing border encounter numbers set new records. 

But it stands to reason that, one way or another, the pressure will be off a few months from now. Either Biden will win at which point President AMLO can relax for a few years or Trump will win and his efforts to re-elect Biden will have failed. He may even see it to his advantage to open the floodgates. The point is that either way this goes, we've probably only got a few more months in the eye of this particular storm. It's really not time to declare victory.