This is like watching a slow-motion train wreck. Progressives are determined to make Joe Biden and moderates in the party pay a price for backing Israel. Now NBC News reports they are planning to turn their attention to a platform fight at the convention.
Activists at odds with President Joe Biden over his handling of Israel’s war with Hamas are planning to shift the focus of their pressure campaign from the ballot box to the Democratic Party platform at this summer’s nominating convention in Chicago...
“We’re gearing up for a fight and we’re drawing a line in the sand, though we hope it doesn’t come to that,” said Joseph Geevarghese, the executive director of Our Revolution, which spun off from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ first presidential campaign.
“We’ll negotiate out as much agreement as possible beforehand so that we can avoid large scale fights,” Geevarghese added. “That being said, if there needs to be a fight on important issues, we’ll do it.”
But there's some question about whether the activists will have any role at all in writing the platform. The committee that will write it is entirely controlled by the White House.
“The fix is in,” said Jim Zogby, a former longtime DNC member, leader of the Arab-American community and former Sanders strategist. "All the Platform Committee people are going to be picked by the campaign and the White House.”...
...others on the left are more hopeful and think they can influence the platform by applying pressure from the outside, if not the inside, in ways that will force the Biden team to avoid a public fight.
It's not clear what force the left can bring in this situation. They can certainly hold protests outside. Would they go as far as holding protests inside the convention itself? That would certainly be entertaining if it happens.
On the other hand, does Biden really want to risk angering tens of thousands of young potential voters, some of whom could stay home if he seems disrespectful toward their issue.
About 13% of Michigan’s Democratic primary voters cast ballots in February for uncommitted, rather than Biden.
In Minnesota a week later, the percentage grew to 19% of the Democratic electorate. Both states have sizable Muslim American populations and progressive activists who oppose Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.
And in Wisconsin on April 2, more than 45,000 Democrats voted uninstructed instead of for Biden. That total more than doubled Biden’s margin of victory in the state in the 2020 general election...
“He’s in trouble with young voters and voters of color,” Stevie O’Hanlon, the national communications director for the progressive, youth-led climate group Sunrise Movement, said in an interview.
If Biden were running away with this race maybe he could shrug these people off but that's clearly not the situation. At this moment it appears he will need every vote he can get and even that may not be enough. So I think it's a safe bet the White House will give these folks a hearing and will make some move in their direction to avoid a confrontation that spills over into the streets or the newspapers.
Ultimately I think the question will be how much are the progressives going to demand. Do they want Biden to vow to stop all military support for Israel? If so, I don't think that's something he will agree to. But it's hard to say. August is a long way away in an election year. Anything could happen between now and then. Biden's numbers could improve making him feel less inclined to be generous. Alternatively, inflation or the border could flare up and he could become more desperate than he is now. It's even possible Hamas could give up the remaining hostages and the hostilities will be over by that time. That would, to some degree make the issue moot.
All we know for certain right now is that two factions of the party appear headed for a Chicago showdown. That sort of thing has worked out badly for Democrats in the past.
