Today I came across this Jack Shafer column at Politico which argues, pretty convincingly, that there is really only one issue that matters to most people during the State of the Union speech. It isn't Gaza or Ukraine or immigration or whatever laundry list of promises the White House has come up with for a 2nd Biden term. The only issue that matters tonight is Joe Biden's age. That's what everyone who watches will be scrutinizing.

Except for this year’s. Thanks to the stream of memory lapses that burble from the president’s lips like a Rocky Mountain stream, his stiff gait, his falls, his use of the shorter and sturdier set of stairs on Air Force One and even his own self-effacing jokes about his age, Biden has effortlessly attracted the volume of attention that makes him the envy of previous presidents. Unfortunately for Joe, it’s the wrong sort of attention because it makes him look infirm — veering into inept. And it’s happening right as the 2024 presidential campaign is on the verge of being set, as a rematch between Biden and Donald Trump.

The amount of media and social media scrutiny that the address will blast at Biden will likely exceed the power of a billion suns. His every handshake coming down the aisle, his every step taken, his every word spoken, will be magnified a hundred times over by the press, his political opposition and voters as they take his measure...

The Biden-is-too-old criticism has taken center stage in the campaign, much to the horror of media critics like Margaret Sullivan, who fretted last month in her Substack that the press was going to make Biden’s age the “overarching issue” of the campaign. Rather than dispelling the age issue, Sullivan’s column inspired even more discussion of Biden’s advanced years. You can protest all you want about it being wrong to reduce a presidential campaign to a single issue like this, but that’s ultimately up to the voters. And as a reminder, it’s not like this is the first time the question of age has been deployed in political maneuvering. The rap against Bob Dole in 1996 was that at 73, he was the oldest first-time presidential nominee and that, relative to incumbent Bill Clinton, he seemed to be lacking the stamina for such a grueling job. In 1972, when Biden first ran for Senate, he didn’t hesitate to capitalize on his youth and point out the age of the incumbent.

Reading this I thought about the immense pressure Biden is under to deliver (Biden apparently spent a couple days at Camp David to prepare) but also the immense pressure the White House is under to prep him for an event like this. It's not just knowing the speech it's delivering it with enough vim and vigor that he never once sounds like an old man who needs a nap. Maybe Biden just needs to load up on coffee but given the stakes there must be an enormous temptation to have the White House doctor give him a couple of caffeine pills with dinner.

In any case, if you're looking for proof that Biden's age is on everyone's mind tonight, all you have to do is a simple Google search. It turns out there half a dozen articles discussing it today. Everyone seems to be aware this is potentially a make or break moment for Joe Biden. Newsweek's entry is titled "Biden's Age Under The Microscope At State Of The Union Speech."

Biden faces "an incredible amount of pressure" to deliver a strong performance in the State of the Union, said Kait Sweeney, a progressive political consultant. "There's a limited number of moments between now and the election that he can really shape to be his own."

Heading into the State of the Union speech, Biden is behind in most national and battleground state polls to former President Donald Trump, the 2024 Republican frontrunner...

"How he performs and how he looks, because of the age issue and what the polls are saying, will be crucial," said Barbara Perry, a presidential historian at the University of Virginia's Miller Center.

The Washington Post has an identical story up titled "Biden, on his age, says, ‘Watch me.’ On Thursday night, they will."

When he arrives at the rostrum at the front of the U.S. House chamber on Thursday night, he will have more Americans watching him than he has had in some time. In an election year where a chief concern among voters is whether the 81-year-old president is fit enough for another four years, the State of the Union address is taking on outsize importance as a way for him to confront the topic.

Allies hope he can alleviate questions by giving a strong speech, showcasing mental quickness and command of the issues. Opponents will be ready to seize on any physical or mental misstep, minor or not.

“He has to make the case it’s not about numerical age, it’s about the age of his ideas,” said Mitch Landrieu, the former New Orleans mayor and co-chair of Biden’s reelection campaign.

Here's NPR's entry:

Poll after poll show voters still wonder whether Biden is too old for the job. Then last month, a special counsel report about Biden's handling of classified documents damningly described him as a "sympathethic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."...

"This is sacrilegious for a speechwriter to say but, it's actually not in the words he says but in the way he presents those words," said Sarada Peri, who was a speechwriter for former President Barack Obama.

"It is one thing to sort of say, 'I am the person who is fighting for you' — but if you appear as though you don't have a lot of fight in you, that's not particularly compelling to people who want that," Peri said.

And USA Today: 

For all the policy talk in the speech, Biden's first order of businesses is much more fundamental: convincing a public wary of his age that he's up for the job for another four years.

Concerns about Biden's octogenarian status amplified last month after a report from Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Hur into Biden's handling of classified documents portrayed the 81-year-old president as "a well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."

"Most important will be him," Julian Zelizer, a history professor at Princeton University, said of Biden's speech, pointing to voters' concerns about his age and performance and Democrats' anxieties about Biden's ability to "withstand the Trump onslaught" of the campaign.

And Yahoo  News: 

RICK NEWMAN: I think what he does is more important than what he says. What Biden needs to show up on Capitol Hill and do 25 jumping jacks, 10 or 20 sit-ups, maybe take a couple laps around the inner chamber, demonstrate to America that he is the most vigorous 81-year-old in the nation. And then it doesn't matter what he says.

Now I don't think he's going to do that probably. But, you know, I'm only half joking--

JOSH LIPTON: But then you would really get the numbers up. Now that is something people tune into.

RICK NEWMAN: I mean, look, he clearly-- the number one thing he has to do is not fall over or have a senior moment or demonstrate in some way that concerns about his frailty are valid. And I think he knows that. I think his campaign knows that. There could be some heckling from Republicans in the crowd, trying to see if they can get him on. Maybe sucker him into a weak moment where he flubs or says something off the cuff or confuses the leader of this country with that country, or so on.

Meanwhile, a Trump-aligned PAC is trying to amp up the pressure, releasing a new ad today called "Jugular."

Okay. Here's a new ad, Joe. It's called "Jugular." https://t.co/vRDBRszgDF pic.twitter.com/J7M0J9Z63R

— Alex Pfeiffer (@__Pfeiffer) March 7, 2024

That's a pretty low bar for Biden to clear tonight. But the fact is that we've all seem him sounding like that on multiple occasion over the last year and we're likely to see it again between now and November. But Biden can't afford any of that tonight. And that's why Democrats are nervous.

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the 81-year-old Biden's "ability to speak without blowing things."

Another House Democrat said: "Listen, Trump has made rhetorical slips … Biden is going to make rhetoric slips, I think the key is his energy level."

So bring on the caffeine because tonight he has to be wired or this election will be over before it begins. Finally, here's a video the AP posted yesterday. It's titled "Biden's State of the Union address faces crucial test with voters worried about his age."