Iran may have dramatically stepped up its involvement in the Middle East conflict with the US. Today, Iran’s IRGC reportedly launched missiles at a US consulate in Erbil, Iraq. At least that’s one of several stories that are now circulating. What we know for sure is that missiles did land in the area of Erbil.

#Breaking: U.S. Officials confirm a ballistic missile attack near the U.S. Consulate in Erbil, Northern Iraq, was directly launched by the IRGC from Iranian territory. pic.twitter.com/grELRfqIM6

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 15, 2024

This area has been under attack by Iran-backed militants for weeks. Last month, three US service personnel were injured by drone attack, leaving one of them critically injured.

A U.S. base in Iraq’s Erbil that houses U.S. forces came under attack from a one-way drone earlier on Monday, leading to the latest U.S. casualties.

The base has been repeatedly targeted. Reuters reported on another significant drone attack in October on the barracks at the Erbil base on Oct. 26, which penetrated U.S. air defenses but failed to detonate…

The U.S. military has already come under attack at least 100 times in Iraq and Syria since the Israel-Hamas war began in October, usually with a mix of rockets and one-way attack drones.

The US carried out an airstrike in response to the attack which reportedly killed some Hezbollah militants. What’s different about today’s attack is that it came directly from Iran, not from militants who are supposedly operating independently. However, as mentioned, there is some confusion about what the target was here. Was it the US consulate or something else nearby?

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they attacked espionage centers and “gatherings of anti-Iranian terrorist groups” near Iraq’s northern city of Erbil with ballistic missiles, Iranian state media said late on Monday.

Explosions were heard in an area some 40 kilometers northeast of Erbil in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, three security sources said, in an area near the U.S. consulate as well as civilian residences.

Reuters reports two people were killed and 3 were taken to a hospital. Yashar Ali seems to have heard at least 3 different stories:

BREAKING

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), through the state media agency it controls, has confirmed that it has targeted Northern Iraq with multiple ballistic missiles.

Multiple reports confirm that this is in vicinity of the US Consulate. Other reports are saying… pic.twitter.com/ITIa8lEFy4

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 15, 2024

The rest of his tweet reads:

Other reports are saying it’s on the US Consulate.

The IRGC has long claimed this is a location of a Mossad station. It also claims that these are targeted attacks against the Islamic State for the terrorist attack in the Iranian city of Kerman. No confirmations of any of this.

This act represents an escalation, as the ballistic missiles were launched not by a proxy group but directly by the IRGC, which operates under the direct command of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Statement from the IRGC: “In response to the recent terrorist crimes of the enemies of Islamic Republic of Iran, the spy headquarters and the gathering of anti-Iranian terrorist groups in parts of the region were targeted by the IRGC’s ballistic missiles in the middle of the night.”

There is also video circulating which shows some rubble at night in Erbil but you can’t tell what this was.

Footage published by Iran-backed Sabreen News shows the aftermath of the Iranian attack on Erbil. #Iraq pic.twitter.com/ip2tPHaH3c

— Tammuz Intel (@Tammuz_Intel) January 15, 2024

If this was a direct attack by Iran on the US consulate, that would be a pretty significant escalation of the conflict and would obviously invite a strong response from the US. It’s possible but it doesn’t seem like Iran’s usual M.O. which is to hide behind the activity of various militant groups it funds. Speaking of which, Iranian IRGC members are now on the ground in Yemen to support the Houthis.

Commanders and advisors from Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are on the ground in Yemen and playing a direct role in Houthi rebel attacks on commercial traffic in the Red Sea.

The IRGC has stationed missile and drone trainers and operators in Yemen, as well as personnel providing tactical intelligence support to the Houthis, U.S. and Middle East officials told Semafor. The IRGC, through its overseas Qods Force, has also overseen the transfer to the Houthis of the attack drones, cruise missiles, and medium-range ballistic missiles used in a string of strikes on Red Sea and Israeli targets in recent weeks, these officials said.

Earlier today, the Houthis carried out an attack on an American owned container ship in the Red Sea.

Houthi rebels have hit a US-owned container ship with a ballistic missile off the coast of Yemen, the US says.

The vessel, Gibraltar Eagle, reported “no injuries or significant damage”, according to the United States military command for the Middle East (Centcom)…

Shipping company Eagle Bulk Shipping said its vessel was carrying steel products and was about 160km (100 miles) offshore in the Gulf of Aden when it was hit.

It said the container “suffered limited damage to a cargo hold but is stable and is heading out of the area”.

So Iran does want to escalate this conflict, but probably not in a way that they can be directly blamed for it. I’m guessing we’ll have more information in the next few hours. I’ll update this post when we know more.

Update: Still not clear what the target was here.

UPDATE:

In a third statement, the IRGC claims it destroyed a Mossad station as part of its offensive of ballistic missiles.

There is no independent confirmation of this to be clear.

“The Revolutionary Guards, with its nobility and intelligence control over the headquarters… https://t.co/u7e6aP88Hu

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 15, 2024

And another update:

REUTERS: US officials confirm no damage was done to US government facilities. https://t.co/u7e6aP88Hu

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 15, 2024

So it sounds like the US consulate was not the target of this attack.