Yesterday, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane fell out of the sky as it was flying northwest from Moscow. Reuters has an exclusive report today citing US officials who point to possible causes for the plane’s crash.

Two U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that it was likely a surface-to-air missile originating from inside Russia likely shot down the plane

The officials stressed that the information was still preliminary and under review, and did not rule out a change to the assessment.

The Wall Street Journal on Thursday reported a different theory: that a bomb aboard the aircraft or some other sabotage caused the crash.

Whatever the cause, there isn’t a lot of doubt about who is ultimately responsible. The Institute for the Study of War concluded it’s unlikely anyone would dare to act against Prigozhin without Putin’s say so.

Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane. Elements of the Russian military, especially Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, would be extremely unlikely to execute Prigozhin without Putin’s order. The entirety of the Russian political and security sphere likely viewed Prigozhin’s continued survival following Wagner’s rebellion as at Putin’s discretion…

Putin may have concluded that he had sufficiently separated Prigozhin from Wagner and could kill him without turning Prigozhin into a martyr for the remaining Wagner personnel.

If Putin concluded that he could have Prigozhin killed without much of a backlash from Wagner, he may have miscalculated. A brief video claiming to be from Wagner showed masked men saying “There are many discussions about what Wagner would do now. We’ll say one thing — we’re already starting off. Expect us.” Here’s the clip:

"Many discussions of what Wagner will do in this situation. We'll say one thing – we're starting off. Expect us!" – reported announcement of Wagner PMC. pic.twitter.com/pzfB5ZO2CT

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 23, 2023

There’s a separate video in which another Wagner mercenary making threats directly aimed at Putin:

“Today we saw how the little Kremlin filth wiped out Yevgeny Viktorovich,” the masked fighter says in an altered voice, apparently referring to Russia’s leader.

He then goes on to issue a sinister “order” to all Wagner units to retrieve their “buried” assault rifles, machine guns and grenades, presumably in preparation for an unspecified retaliatory act.

“All of us who have fought all these years are seeing that this devil has played long enough,” the mercenary adds, again seemingly referencing Putin. “Await future orders, and victory will be ours. Glory to Russia!”

And there’s at least some indication the Kremlin may be concerned:

BREAKING:

The Belarusian authorities have cut off the internet in the area of the main Wagner Group camp in the Tale Village in Belarus.

Looks like Putin and Lukashenko are trying to stop the Wagner Group from communicating with each other and coordinating a quick response. pic.twitter.com/dIyoXjPzdZ

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 23, 2023

As for Putin himself, he finally made a statement today about his old friend’s death.

Vladimir Putin confirms Yevgeny Prigozhin died when the Wagner founder's plane crashed yesterday.

" I knew Prigozhin for a long time, from the early 1990s. He had a difficult path and made serious mistakes in his life. But he got results – for himself, and when I asked him." pic.twitter.com/dYZTRVOW5q

— max seddon (@maxseddon) August 24, 2023

It’s not at all clear how widespread the anger at Putin will be. Maybe it will fade quickly or maybe the remnants of Wagner really will be gunning for Putin. They have battlefield experience and access to weapons. They certainly could make Putin’s life more complicated if they wanted to do so. Then again, now that Prigozhin is dead, Putin may have plans for the remnants of Wagner in Belarus and Africa.