Just the other day there was news that Yevgeny Prigozhin had released his first video since the march on Moscow, seemingly placing him somewhere in Africa.

Vowing to make Africa “more free” and “Russia even greater on every continent,” a person who appears to be Prigozhin hints at his location in the 41-second clip, which was published by several Telegram channels affiliated with Wagner on Monday.

The video shows the man standing in a desert-like area, dressed in military fatigues and wearing a bulletproof vest featuring the Wagner logo. The exiled mercenary leader’s exact whereabouts remain unknown two months after he led the short-lived rebellion against Moscow’s military leadership.

“We are working. The temperature is plus 50 (degrees Celsius). Everything is how we like it,” Prigozhin appears to say in the video while holding an assault rifle in his hands. Armed men on pickup trucks can be seen in the background, seemingly keeping a safety perimeter around him.

But today it appears Prigozhin may have been back in Russia. There are reports that his plane went down, killing him and everyone onboard. Actually, “went down” is probably not accurate. There are already unofficial claims that his plane was shot down.

Russia says Yevgeny Prigozhin was on a plane that crashed on a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg. All passengers and e crew, are dead.

Wagner-linked channels say Russian air defense *shot down the plane* – the same private jet Prigozhin regularly uses.https://t.co/j7W1mhtBeu

— max seddon (@maxseddon) August 23, 2023

This clip is widely circulating and appears to show a small plane falling out of the sky. I can’t understand what the woman filming is saying. Notice there are some possible signs of an explosion hanging in the sky.

FOOTAGE: Prigozhin’s jet crashing after it was was shot down by Russian air defenses: pic.twitter.com/ydOiBXAkrb

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) August 23, 2023

This guy translated the commentary in the clip: “the jet after two explosions is falling.”

The moment Prigozhin's Embraer 600 is falling . The lady in the video says "the jet after two explosions is falling".

Some sources including Wagner affiliated Grey Zone claim that Prigozhin's jet has been shot down. pic.twitter.com/A2DKcmgEUE

— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) August 23, 2023

Another angle here:

Prigozhin was listed among the passengers of Embraer private jet that crashed in Tver region. Utkin was also onboard. Two months after the mutiny. pic.twitter.com/t1InmYexRB

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 23, 2023

Here’s video of the impact site. Part of the engine with the plane’s ID number survived so there’s no doubt this was his plane.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's Embraer Legacy 600 jet crashed in Russia's Tver region, killing Prigozhin and 9 other people.

The same jet was recently in Mali, just like Prigozhin!
pic.twitter.com/17CwMusgYH

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 23, 2023

The Moscow Times spoke to an unnamed government source who wasn’t surprised.

A Russian government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Moscow Times that they believe neither the crash nor its location were a coincidence.

“Not far from the president’s residence in Valdai, there are four divisions of S-300 PMU1s [missile defense systems] guarding the sky,” the source said. “On June 24 — a march on Moscow. And on August 24 — two missiles. It all adds up.”

“Look how it was falling — it was shot down just like that. The plane just fell out of the sky,” the source added.

TASS reports a formal investigation of the crash is underway. I’m sure it will be completely independent and free of political influence. Meanwhile, in a move that can’t be coincidental, Gen. Surovikin aka Gen Armageddon, has been relived of his duties today and will be taking a vacation:

“The ex-Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces of Russia Sergey Surovikin has now been relieved of his post, Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov, Chief of the General Staff of the Aerospace Forces, is temporarily acting as Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces,” the source told RIA Novosti…

As RBC wrote, citing its sources, Surovikin was relieved of his post due to a transfer to another job, now he is on a short vacation.

Surovikin is widely believed to have known in advance about Prigozhin’s coup attempt. Hopefully his vacation plans don’t involve any air travel.

What else can you say about this? Russia is a thugocracy where Putin rules by jailing and murdering his opponents. The most shocking thing is how blatant it is. Does anyone doubt Putin ordered this? It’s pretty clear he wants people to know he’s still the strongman in charge.

Prigozhin was apparently a personal friend, formerly known as Putin’s chef. That’s why he got away with his outbursts for as long as he did. But he crossed the one line no one can cross when he marched on Moscow making demands. Even if he never intended to depose Putin (personally, I think he planned to do that too) he still made Putin look weak. It was only a matter of time until something happened to him.

People who embarrass or question Putin often wind up mysteriously falling out of high windows. Way back in February I wrote a post about Prigozhin titled “Is this man about to fall out of a high window in Russia?” in which I concluded:

…this is a risky game to be playing. If Prigozhin gets his way and Putin orders the military to resupply Wagner maybe it will pay off. But it’s also possible Putin just decides that his old friend is raising too much fuss, too publicly. In Russia, anyone who embarrasses Putin has a tendency to mysteriously fall out of a high window. If I were Prigozhin, I’d think about wearing a parachute 24/7 for the next few weeks.

In the end, Prigozhin fell even further both literally and symbolically. Here’s Prigozhin’s last video released just two days ago.

⚡️#BREAKING Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared in a video for the first time in a while, this time from Africa and invites people to join the ranks of Wagner PMC. pic.twitter.com/gSb8YaqMp9

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) August 21, 2023