The Ukrainian counteroffensive hasn’t resulted in any dramatic breakthroughs like the ones we saw last year but it is making slow but significant progress.

In the ground war, the Ukrainians are advancing south along two principal lines of attack: through the eastern village of Staromaiorske toward the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk, a port on the Sea of Azov; and farther west toward the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, a vital transportation hub near the coast.

Ukrainian forces have progressed about 10 to 12 miles along both lines from their starting places at the onset of the counteroffensive in early June. Kyiv’s goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and drive a wedge into the so-called land bridge between Russia and Crimea, which is vital to the Russian military’s supply routes to the west…

Ukraine has devoted thousands of soldiers, including some of its most experienced and battle-hardened marines, and armor to the campaign drive south down the Mokri Yaly River Valley.

If they can manage to push through or around Urozhaine, that will put them within 50 miles of the two major port cities of Berdiansk and Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. And with each mile they advance, the Ukrainian forces put more pressure on the Russian supply lines.

The British Ministry of Defense pointed out last week that Russia appears to be redeploying troops along the front lines which could lead other areas open to attack.

(1/5) Russia has likely redeployed airborne forces’ (VDV) units from the Kherson region to the heavily contested Orikiv sector in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA) has been in combat facing Ukrainian assaults since 4 June 2023.

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 12, 2023

(3/5) Reports suggest that the 70th and 71st Motor Rifle Regiments have faced particularly intense attrition and heavy combat on the front line.

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 12, 2023

(5/5) However, the redeployment will likely leave Russia’s defences near the east bank of the Dnipro River weaker, where they are increasingly harassed by Ukrainian amphibious raids.

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 12, 2023

The Institute for the Study of War, which tracks and assesses changes on the front lines daily has also said the advances made by Ukraine appear tactically significant.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses…

Russia’s practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate, as both Russian and Ukrainian operations are fixing Russian units to certain sectors of the front. These lateral reinforcements will likely disrupt Russian offensive and defensive operations in the sectors from which they are drawn and threaten to rapidly degrade the forces that the Russian military is using as reinforcements.[12] Russia currently does not appear to possess significant available forces that it could draw on for reinforcements without endangering other sectors of the front. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations drew elite Russian formations and units to the Bakhmut area and continue to fix them there.

The most recent ISW update notes that Russian bloggers and military units are arguing over who is to blame for recent failures.

The Russian information space is seizing on Ukrainian gains in Urozhaine (in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) to highlight poor Russian morale and command challenges in the area. A Russian milblogger complained on August 12 that the Russian 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) failed to dedicate tank units to support its infantry in Urozhaine and prematurely withdrew from Urozhaine on August 10, claiming they lacked reinforcements when in reality the unit’s personnel were drunk in the rear areas.[3] The milblogger complained that the entire 36th Combined Arms Army (CAA) is unwilling to defend the settlement while the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Kaskad” Operational Tactical Combat Formation and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) defend Urozhaine.[4] These complaints generated a multitude of responses in the Russian information space, including attempts to deescalate tensions between the implicated Russian formations, doubling down on complaints against the 37th Brigade and 36th CAA, and accusing the initial milblogger who reported a Russian withdrawal from Urozhaine of attempting to inflate the reputation of other defending units at the expense of the 36th CAA’s reputation.[5] One milblogger blamed the current situation on the front on the Russian military command’s removal of Major General Ivan Popov as commander of the 58th CAA in early July 2023.[6] The milbloggers notably targeted their complaints at the personnel of these units rather than the unit or theater commanders, suggesting that Popov’s removal and other rumored command purges may have removed mid-level Russian military commanders as a readily available scapegoat for Russian military failures.

It looks like Urozhaine has been completely taken by Ukraine. There are videos of fleeing Russian soldiers being hit by artillery.

📽️Russian forces retreating from Urozhaine, #Donetsk Oblast on foot and under Ukrainian artillery fire.#UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/RNF5KDWEzm

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) August 13, 2023

Russian Telegram channels confirm their retreat from Urozhaine; and claim, despite footage showing columns of fleeing Russian troops being struck by Ukrainian artillery, that casualties were "reported to be minimal". pic.twitter.com/RkXzwoTti0

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) August 14, 2023

The question now is how far the retreating Russian soldiers will go.

After the retreat from Urozhaine, Romanov now points out a bad foresight regarding Zavitne Bazhannya. He notes that it might be possible that Russian forces surrender this settlement without a fight and retreat to the first line of defense near Staromlynivka. pic.twitter.com/pLgMYx8VDV

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 14, 2023

Again, we’re not seeing the dramatic breakthroughs we saw last fall because Russia has had months to prepare defenses that make that all but impossible, but Ukraine is pressing forward and stretching Russia’s defenses to the limit. These advances also bring them closer and closer to Russian supply lines which, if disrupted, could lead to a wider collapse. It will be interesting to see how the Russian TV propagandists make excuses for this latest failure.