Probably the biggest outstanding question about events in Russia last weekend is why Yevgeny Prigozhin went from marching on Moscow (the March for Justice) to pulling off the road and agreeing to relocate his forces to Belarus. We know that the strongman leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, played a role in negotiating that agreement. What we don’t know is exactly what inducements were offered to call off the march. But last night the Telegraph published a story suggesting a possible answer.

Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.

It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital.

That sounds more like Putin’s Russia. Maybe it explains why Prigozhin backed down, i.e. a combination of him realizing he lacked the manpower to achieve his goals and personal threats against family members. Whatever the case, some of his men aren’t happy about it.

…members of Russia’s convict army have issued threats against Prigozhin, claiming he betrayed them by abandoning the Kremlin coup attempt.

A video posted online by the prisoners-turned-fighters accused Prigozhin of “cowardice”, saying his supporters had been “double crossed” and now faced retribution.

Jazz noted earlier that Defense Minister Shoigu has reappeared in a video released by the defense ministry today. There’s some indication that this video was filmed before the start of the coup but even so, as Max Seddon points out, putting it out today means Prigozhin didn’t achieve his main objective which was to get rid of Shoigu.

Rybar, a popular pro-war blog, says Shoigu visited Belgorod region before Prigozhin's uprising and this is likely from that trip.

Whether or not that's true, it's still significant they put it out – it shows Shoigu (apparently) still has Putin's backinghttps://t.co/CZwqbKCn0q

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 26, 2023

If Putin is sticking with Shoigu, it’s hard to understand how he could make a deal with Prigozhin that essentially gives him a pass for this attempted coup. As Ed noted here, that deal may be falling apart because Putin is still demanding Wagner place itself under the defense minister and Prigozhin is still saying no, an argument that started weeks ago.

On Kremlin run television, the usual propagandists were doing their best to praise Putin but struggling with the idea that Prigozhin could be allowed to live.

During the first post-mutiny broadcast of Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, propagandists focused on praising Putin’s infinite wisdom for ending the revolt in a speedy manner. The head of RT, Margarita Simonyan, asserted: “There is nothing more frightening in the world than civil war.” This outlook unwittingly highlighted frequent discussions on Russian state media hoping for a civil war in other countries—namely the United States…

Simonyan surmised: “It was a choice between the terrible and the horrendous… There is nothing more frightening than civil strife, which is incomparably more significant than a violation of some legal norms.” Setting aside his daily demands for nuclear strikes and executions, Solovyov pompously added: “On this day, we found out a lot about our own country. We turned out to be much wiser than anyone might have thought… Yesterday, our leadership demonstrated strength and wisdom. Most importantly, it demonstrated strength without a bloodlust.”

But State Duma member Andrey Gurulyov, retired deputy Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, was too flabbergasted about Prigozhin’s exploits to go along with the propaganda narrative. After letting out a long, exasperated sigh, Gurulyov said: “I am firmly convinced that during wartime, traitors have to be destroyed! Today, no matter who says what, whatever fairy tales they are telling, a bullet to the forehead is the sole salvation for Prigozhin and [Dmitry] Utkin. They know me! They know that I stand behind my every word. There is no other option!”

As you can imagine, these propaganda toads would be singing a very different tune tomorrow if Putin had Prigozhin shot later today. Whatever Putin does has to have been a brilliant masterstroke. All arguments work backward from that starting point.

Speaking of which, there are still lots of people on Twitter arguing that this was all a clever psyop designed to put Wagner troops in Belarus closer to Kyiv. The psyops people are certain this was all a big ruse and we’ll all see Putin’s brilliant plan soon. But watch the reaction of the top propagandists on Russian TV. I don’t think these people believe it was all a ruse. They aren’t that good at acting. They know their country just dodged a bullet over the weekend.

Update: At 10:10 pm Moscow Time, President Putin gave a brief speech stating that the whole country is unified against the rebellion that happened over the weekend and supports the “constitutional order,” meaning his rule.

Putin made several points. First, that the organizers of the rebellion will be punished for their “criminal activity.” He didn’t mention Prigozhin by name but that’s clearly who he meant. He also suggested that Wagner fighters would not all be punished (though some might).

Putin also suggested that this coup attempt was pushed forward by the west. He didn’t mention the US by name but that’s clearly what he’s implying though there’s no evidence the west had anything to do with this.

After that he thanked the military and law enforcement for putting a stop to the coup. He said the pilots who died had helped to save Russia. He then added that most Wagner fighters were also patriots and he offered them a choice. They could sign an agreement with the military and keep fighting in Ukraine. They could go home to their families. Lastly, they could go to Belarus if they chose to do so.

Here’s the full speech.

PUTIN (today, RT translation): "We have shown supreme consolidation of society and executive authorities at all levels… practically all Russian society – everyone – was united by their sense of responsibility for the fate of the country. Since the very beginning of these events… pic.twitter.com/yjjdiOtz3H

— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) June 26, 2023

Reviews are still coming in but not everyone is pleased with this 5 minute statement.

Igor Girkin following Putin's speech: "I haven't seen anything more pitiful in the performance of a man remotely resembling the president…The confusion continues"https://t.co/sjX8zhSfie pic.twitter.com/zHJ9iCGw5R

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) June 26, 2023