Several months ago I wrote this post suggesting that Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was taking a dangerous path, one that could eventually lead to him falling out of a high window somewhere in Russia. If you’ve been following the story at all, Prigozhin as the leader of the Wagner Group has been repeatedly shooting his mouth off at defense minister Sergei Shoigu.

I’ve lost track of how many times Prigozhin has publicly dissed Shoigu since then but there were basically two things keeping his among the living. The first is that he’s apparently a long-time friend of Putin and the second is that his fighters (made up mostly of Russians recruited from prison) has been the only force on the ground winning any battles. But once Prigozhin seized Bakhmut, he announce his forces would be leaving the front lines and then, in another diss aimed at the defense minister, predicted the Russian army would quickly lose most of the territory his Wagner fighters had gained.

But something changed last weekend. Defense Minister Shoigu ordered that all “volunteer detachments” operating in Ukraine would need to sign contracts with the military by July 1. Essentially this seemed to be an effort by Shoigu to take authority over Prigozhin’s troops. Prigozhin flatly refused in a statement published on Telegram:

“Those orders and decrees that Shoigu forms, they apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and to military personnel. PMC “Wagner” will not sign any contracts with Shoigu. PMC “Wagner” is organically built into the overall system, PMC “Wagner” coordinates its actions with the generals on the right, left, with unit commanders, has the deepest experience and is a highly effective structure. Unfortunately, most military units do not have such efficiency, and precisely because Shoigu cannot manage military formations normally. Therefore, the fact that he writes decrees or orders applies exclusively to the Ministry of Defense and to those who are within the Ministry of Defense. What can happen after this order – we will not be given weapons and ammunition – we will figure it out, as they say, when the thunder breaks out, they will come running and bring weapons and ammunition with a request “help”.

As for subordination, of course, Wagner PMC is absolutely completely subordinate to the interests of the Russian Federation and the supreme commander in chief. On the territory, according to the orders of Gerasimov and Shoigu, Wagner PMC coordinates all its actions and performs the tasks set by Army General Surovikin. And since Surovikin is an intelligent, competent and experienced commander, the tasks that Wagner PMC developed together with Surovikin and carried out on his behalf showed a high level of efficiency and success.”

Did you notice how he frame his subordination? He’s subordinate to Putin and, by implication, not to Shoigu. Prigozhin and Shoigu have been fighting for months so another disagreement is nothing new. What makes this different is that President Putin has weighed in on the side of Shoigu:

Speaking to a group of pro-war bloggers on Tuesday, the Russian president said he welcomed the defence minister Sergei Shoigu’s initiative to force mercenary groups to sign contracts with the ministry – an order Prigozhin has refused to follow.

“This has to be done and it has to be done as quickly as possible,” Putin said of the military contracts, saying it was “in line with common sense, with established practice and the law”.

As a policy researcher for the Rand Corporation said, “Shoigu has Prigozhin in more or less a checkmate. If Wagner does not sign a [defence ministry] contract in a few weeks, the state could have grounds to stop supporting Wagner, or even make legal moves against them.” So at this point, you’d expect Prigozhin to find a way to politely fall in line but that’s not what happened.

When asked to comment on Putin’s statements on Wednesday, a defiant Prigozhin doubled down. “When we started participating in this war, no one said that we would be obliged to conclude agreements with the Ministry of Defence,” he said in a rare direct rebuke of the president.

“None of the Wagner fighters is ready to go down the path of shame again. And so no one will sign contracts,” he said, adding that he believed the Russian president would find a “compromise” for Wagner.

One observer even suggested Putin has been planning this for months but wanted to wait until Prigozhin had come through in Bakhmut before pulling the rug out from under him. So now Prigozhin is basically asking Putin to reconsider and find a compromise.

Since his victory in Bakhmut, Prigozhin has been on his own victory tour of sorts:

Since withdrawing from Bakhmut, Prigozhin has embarked on a highly unusual public tour, holding meet-and-greets in provincial towns across Russia alongside fellow hardliners such as the notorious former arms dealer Viktor Bout. Prigozhin ranted against the defence ministry, calling on Putin to plunge the country into a state of total war modelled on North Korea.

So he’s got some clout because of his victory but ultimately it will be up to Putin to decide how much leeway his old friend Prigozhin will get. At this point, it looks like we’ll have an answer within the next two weeks. Until this is settled, Prigozhin should probably stay away from high windows.