Progressives are losing the argument to allow trans athletes to compete in whatever category they identify as. Gallup has been asking about this since 2021. Even then the majority of respondents (62 percent) said trans athletes should compete “only on teams that match their birth gender.” That left 34% who said they should be able to compete “on teams that match identity.” But two years later, the ground has shifted significantly.

A larger majority of Americans now (69%) than in 2021 (62%) say transgender athletes should only be allowed to compete on sports teams that conform with their birth gender. Likewise, fewer endorse transgender athletes being able to play on teams that match their current gender identity, 26%, down from 34%.

The 15-point swing happened even as more Americans now say they know a trans person.

The shift toward greater public opposition to transgender athletes competing on the basis of their current gender identity has occurred at the same time that more U.S. adults say they know a transgender person. Thirty-nine percent of Americans, up from 31% in 2021, say someone they know personally has told them they are transgender.

But both Americans who know and do not know a transgender individual have become less supportive of allowing transgender athletes to play on the team of their choice.

Here’s the chart showing that change.

Notice that those who say they know a transgender person in 2023 are roughly in agreement with where those who didn’t know a transgender person were in 2021. But perhaps the biggest change is found when you look at the partisan breakdown. In 2021, a majority of Democrats (55%) said they supported trans athletes competing against their current gender. By 2023, a plurality (48-47) now says they should compete against their birth gender. That leaves only one category of respondents who still show majority support for trans athletes competing against their current gender.

Although Democrats are currently divided on the issue, they do rank among the groups most in favor of allowing transgender athletes to play on the team that corresponds to their current gender identity. Political liberals are the lone major subgroup showing majority (57%) support for allowing transgender athletes to choose which team to play on.

So leftists are the only group that strongly supports this now. Something to keep in mind the next time a newspaper tries to present this as a widely held opinion.

Daily Wire released a video last week featuring college swimmer Paula Scanlan who was a teammate of Lia Thomas. She says the university sent out an email warning that anyone who complained about Thomas competing with them would regret it. How they would regret it was left to the imagination. The school then offered mental health services to anyone who had a problem with that decision. In other words, if you object there’s something deeply wrong with you. That’s the idea progressives have been pushing but as this Gallup poll shows, it isn’t working.