Earlier this week there was agreement between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the head of Russia’s Wagner group that Ukraine had gained some territory around the city of Bakhmut. Specifically, Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that elements of the Russian army surrounding the city had simply fled from the fight.

In case you’ve missed prior stories on this topic, Bakhmut was once a town of about 70,000 people which is of no real strategic value but which has taken on a lot of symbolic value simply because both sides have been fighting over it for nine months. A month or so ago it really looked as if Wagner forces were about to seize the city. They had it surrounded and were making progress by sending human waves to attack the Ukrainian front lines multiple times per day. Even US officials seemed to be preparing for a loss that would be a big PR boost for Putin in time for Russia’s Victory Day Parade (which took place this week).

But it never happened. The Washington Post has a story up today about how the Ukrainians stopped it.

In the dawn haze, under the cover of their own artillery, small groups of Ukrainian soldiers advanced toward a Russian position on the outskirts of the embattled city of Bakhmut.

Drone footage had identified an avenue of attack on Russian lines on the outskirts of the besieged city. Intelligence suggested the Russians were so focused on the intense street battles playing out inside they were not expecting an assault in this direction, according to two battalion commanders in Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade who help plan and execute the operation and spoke by telephone…

On May 6, dozens of Ukrainian troops advanced on the Russian foxholes knowing they would “have to fight for every single pit,” said Rollo, the 29-year-old commander of the brigade’s first assault battalion, who spoke on the condition he would be identified only by his call sign.

The battle lasted for 12 grueling hours but by sundown, the troops from Wagner Group broke and fled, leaving five dead behind.

“They tried to resist. They fired back. Others escaped, and then some were killed,” Rollo said. “But in the end, those who remained alive just ran away.”

Instead of a PR victory for Putin this week, we’ve had the Ministry of Defense and the head of Wagner group arguing in public over another Russian retreat. Today, the Russian Defense Ministry admitted they had lost some territory but tried to frame it as some kind of strategic re-deployment.

“In order to increase the stability of defense, units of the ‘Southern’ group of Russian troops occupied the line in the Maloilyinovka direction,” the ministry said in its daily update on Friday.

The move, it said, would allow its troops to take advantage of “the favorable conditions of the Berkhivka reservoir,” but it effectively confirms the loss of some kilometers of territory by Russian forces.

Here’s a map showing the area in question.

In the past 24-48 hours (leaning more towards 24), north of Bakhmut, Ukraine has reversed about 2.5 months worth of Russian advances. pic.twitter.com/syaxCJWb5Z

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 12, 2023

It didn’t take long for Prigozhin to accuse the Defense Ministry of lying.

This statement “to put it mildly, was cunning,” Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said, adding that the ministry needs to “stop lying immediately.”

Prigozhin described the regrouping as “a non-tactical retreat,” and claimed, “there was simply a flight of units of the Ministry of Defense from the flanks, therefore, an exit to the Berkhivka reservoir,” which lies immediately northwest of Bakhmut.

Altogether, this retreat accounts for the loss of five square kilometers (nearly two square miles) “today alone,” he claimed.

The big picture here is that Wagner/Prigozhin failed to take the city as they’d promised they would. Instead of focusing on his own failure, Prigozhin is focusing attention on a failure by the Russian army in the same area. And it’s worth noting that the Ukrainians who recaptured that territory say it’s Prigozhin who is the liar. It was his Wagner troops that retreated first.

However you slice it the bottom line is that Putin needed a win he could trumpet on Victory Day and instead he got two failed generals arguing over who is more to blame for fresh losses. It puts him in the unenviable position of deciding what to do next.

A retreat from Bakhmut would represent an embarrassing setback for the Russian military. Now mostly ruins, Bakhmut is not seen as strategically important but has become a symbolic prize. Russia, which has not captured a Ukrainian city since last July, had pressed ahead despite soaring losses…

That is presenting Russia with a difficult choice. If Russia does not reinforce the flanking positions around Bakhmut, it risks a politically humiliating setback. But if it diverts reserve forces there, it could weaken defenses in the south…

Russian military bloggers have responded with alarm to Kyiv’s gains in the north and south of Bakhmut. The bloggers, who often report from the front lines and can be influential within Russia, are fiercely pro-war and want Moscow to commit more resources to the fight.

Aleksandr Yaremchuk, a Russian military correspondent aligned with the Wagner mercenary group, wrote that, “Wagner gave a lot of blood and sweat for this territory. Some gave their lives. It’s hard for me to believe that other units are so easily abandoning their positions.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine is threatening him in other areas. Just today there was a big explosion in the Russian controlled city of Luhansk which is east of Bakhmut and a long way from the front.

BREAKING: Suspected Ukrainian missiles hit Russian-occupied Luhansk, just days after Ukraine received long-range missiles from the UK pic.twitter.com/CG5NPp1B5N

— BNO News (@BNONews) May 12, 2023